Once again, it is widely tipped the Blues will be very competitive this season, and they could shape as dangerous opposition that could pinch some unlikely wins and cause many upsets. However, we will likely be seeing another finish in the bottom five for the Blues for the 5th consecutive year.
Last Season
After a promising 2016, Carlton was full of hope going into the 2017 season. Starting out very competitively going down spiritually to Richmond and Melbourne before beating arch rivals Essendon, Carlton managed to earn wins against the struggling Sydney and a defiant Collingwood, beating them in an upset of their 125th anniversary celebration. However after heading into the bye with three consecutive losses, Carlton returned a rejuvenated side, beating flag favorites GWS by a point, then travelling up to Gold Coast for another win.
Having failing to win a game in between rounds 14 to 21, a win against a resurgent Hawthorn to end their finals hopes, gave much delight to their fans. A disappointing 81 point loss to the Swans in the last game of the year meant that the Blues finished in 16th position.
Off season grade
In: Mathew Lobbe, Mathew Kennedy, Darcy Lang, Aaron Mullet, Paddy Dow (Pick 3), Lochie O'Brien (Pick 10), Tom De Koning (Pick 30), Angus Schumacher (Pick 70), Jarrod Garlett, Cameron O'Shea
Out: Bryce Gibbs, Dennis Armfield
With the loss of Bryce Gibbs, it would be apparent the Blues' midfield depth would take a hit this season. However, with a fully fit Patrick Cripps alongside Marc Murphy and a widely tipped break out year for Charlie Curnow, the Blues have plenty of options to go through the midfield to cover the loss of Gibbs.
Grade: C+
Defining Period
Before Carlton's round 12 bye, they have a run of five games that could make or break their season. In round seven, they travel to Adelaide Oval to face the Crows, then games against Essendon and Melbourne at the MCG, then to round out the tough stretch of games, they play in Geelong against the Cats and at the SCG against the Swans.
With the loss of All-Australia defender Sam Docherty, after he ruptured his ACL in training in December, this tough run of games won't be made any easier.
This could see Carlton sitting at 3-7 come the half way point of the season if they don't manage to pinch a couple victories.
Champion Data suggests...
Champion Data suggest that Carlton are the worst attcking team in the competition. Averaging only 73 points a game last year (18th in the AFL), the Blues are in dying need of forwards that kick goals. With Charlie Curnow being the only Carlton key forward to have a positive relative rating (+44%), Champion Data puts him alongside Jeremy Cameron and Joe Daniher as the best three forwards under the age of 25 in the competition. With four key forwards on the list, three of them are under the age of 21. Harry McKay and Pat Kerr are the two that didn't feature last season, with their form as key forwards are questionable having only kicked 22 goals in 21 games.
Relative rating is a measure used by Champion Data that measures how a player performed relative to players of the same age and position, based of AFL ranking points.
To add to this struggle, Carlton only had five general forwards with only two in positive relative rating on their list last season as opposed to 13 general defenders, with five in positive relative rating. It is quite clear how stacked their list is defensively, so who can fill the void?
More forward time for Cripps could be the answer as his relative rating of +26 percent suggests he can be damaging down forward. Or, is a permanent switch to the forward line for Sam Petreski-Seton help spark Carlton's forward line into action?
Strengths and Weaknesses
Strengths: Carlton's youth and speed is a massive x-factor for them this season. After bursting onto the scene last year, Zac Fisher quickly impressed fans and the coaching staff with his impressive speed, agility and ball skills.
Alongside Fisher, last year's rising stars in Petreski-Seton and Jarrod Pickett in the forward line, created immense forward half pressure. With the youth of Curnow, who looks like he will explode this season and have another break out year, Carlton will be hoping build a formidable forward line around these core young players.
Cripps alone is a massive strength for the Blues. His ability to win contested footy and apply tackles and pressure on the opposition provides a massive boost to the Carlton midfield.
Carlton's defense, with key pillars Jacob Weitering and the rejuvenated Liam Jones, was seen as a massive strength to Carlton last season.
With teams struggling to score against Carlton last season, due to the intercept ability of Caleb Marchbank and rebounding from Lachie Plowman and Kade Simpson, Carlton will be hoping for much of the same from the defense this season.
Weaknesses: With the loss of vice-captain Sam Docherty to a season ending injury, Carlton's ability to rebound out of defense is severely reduced.
With the loss of Gibbs, who often played across half back at times last season, Brendon Bolton will be looking at other players to fill this void. The arrival of Aaron Mullet, alongside the ever reliable Simpson look the most likely duo to feature across half back this season.
The inability to kick a winning score also hampered Carlton last season. The evolution of the game plan will likely see a greater emphasis put onto the forward line this season in a bid to win more games. With Levi Casboult as a key forward, who is very inconsistent in front of goals, Carlton will be needing injury plagued number 10 pick Harry McKay to be fully fit, alongside Curnow in order for Carlton to kick a winning score every week.
Carlton's midfield depth is also seen as a massive weakness this season, with the loss of the versatile Gibbs. With the hope draftees Paddy Dow and Lochie O'Brien can go through the midfield, the Blues will be hoping for a injury free year for stars Cripps and Murphy, alongside the development of younger brigade to help fill the void left by Gibbs.
Prediction: 15th
The loss of Sam Docherty for the season and Bryce Gibbs moving to Adelaide will see the Blues struggle to win games this season. Although we may see a better season in terms of consistency and performance, a tricky run of games throughout the middle of the season might see there season over by round 13. Double up games against 2017 strugglers Gold Coast, Fremantle, Collingwood and Western Bulldogs give Blues supporters some hope of improving on last years total of seven wins.
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