Last Season
Essendon's season was off to a flyer after a comprehensive win over arch enemies Hawthorn in front of a packed MCG. That was as good as it got, as the Bombers lost 4 of their next six games.
After a spirited victory over the Cats, losses to Sydney, Brisbane and a demolition from Port Adelaide, saw the Bombers sit at 6-8 and way off the pace for finals. Post the bye, Essendon looked a different side. They came storming home to end the season, winning 6 of their final 8 games to scrape into the finals.
The only problem was that they were facing a red-hot Sydney side that donโt lose at the SCG, especially in finals. The elimination final was a game to forget, but, making finals for the first time since the ASADA scandal is good news for the club and coach.
Number one draft pick Andrew McGrath seemingly fitted into the side and looked like he had already played 10 seasons of AFL. He took out the rising star award, while 2016 rising stars Darcy Parish and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti took their games to another level.
Joe Daniher staked his claim to be the best key forward in the competition by just missing out on the Coleman medal.
Essendon were one of the best ball users in 2017, ranking third in disposal efficiency, third for kicks and second for marks.
Their inability to win clearances will be a focus come 2018, having finished last in the competition for clearances, which was a major reason as to why they lost the elimination final by so much.
Off Season Grade
In: Jake Stringer, Devon Smith, Adam Saad, Joran Houlahan (Pick 49), Brandon Zerk-Thatcher (Pick 66), Matt Guelfi (Pick 76)
Out: James Kelly (retired), Brent Stanton (retired), Jobe Watson (retired), Heath Hocking (delisted), Craig Bird (delisted), Ben Howlett (delisted), Alex Morgan (delisted)
Off season Grade: A+
Essendon lost a heap of experience, with James Kelly, Jobe Watson and Brent Stanton all retiring. However, the recruitment of Stringer, Saad and Smith will add an injection of speed and poise to the line-up. Smith will play as a forward-midfielder who will be much needed considering the retirement of Watson. Adam Saad will complement their back line and give them run and carry, whilst also freeing up McGrath to play more midfield minutes this season.
The most interesting acquisition was the recruitment of Stringer. His work rate and intensity were non-existent last season in a disappointing year. Essendon will be hoping to amend these issues if they want Stringer to return to his clinical best in 2018.
Defining Period
The Bombers are back in prime time with four Friday night games in 2018. After playing none in 2017, Essendon play only two 2017 finalists in the first eight rounds and play eight of their first nine games in Melbourne.
They will once again face Collingwood in the traditional ANZAC day fixture, with the day falling on a Wednesday this year, which only gives them a four-day break to prepare for Melbourne in the following round. They also only play a double up game against one top six side last season -Richmond.
If Essendon wish to play finals again this year, they'll have to overcome a tough end to the season to secure their place. In their final 5 games, they face Sydney, arch rivals Hawthorn, finals hopeful Saint Kilda, reigning premiers Richmond and Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval. With all 5 teams in a position for the final 8 places on the ladder, the Bombers will need to win 2-3 of these games to solidify their place in the eight.
Round 19 Friday, Jul. 27 โ Sydney Swans, Etihad Stadium (Home)
Round 20 Saturday, Aug. 4 โ Hawthorn, MCG (Away)
Round 21 Friday, Aug. 10th โ St Kilda, Etihad Stadium (Home)
Round 22 Friday, Aug. 17 โ Richmond, MCG (Away)
Round 23 TBC โ Port Adelaide, Adelaide Oval (Away)
Champion Data Suggestsโฆ
Champion Data suggests that in terms of quality, Essendon's midfield ranks as the area that needs the most improving this year. With games being won and lost in the midfield, Essendon ranked last in clearances last season. While the three players they recruited will improve the team, they all don't play midfield on a permanent basis. Zach Merrett elevated his last year, while David Zaharakis has played some good footy, but not on a consistent basis.
Dyson Heppell and Darcy Parish have been solid but aren't producing the enough clearances and meters gained to elevate the Don's to the next level. Andrew McGrath will go through the midfield this year, performing 27 percent above expectation last season across half back, while his addition wonโt hinder the defence with the arrival of Saad. Stringer and Smith will be hoping to sporadically go through the midfield to try and add some quality.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Strengths: Despite ranking 12th in inside 50's last season, Essendon's ability to convert their inside 50's was the real highlight. For the first time in a while, Essendon had a forward line that was capable of kicking goals on a regular basis. They ranked 4th in points for off inside 50's, while they improved their ability to convert an inside 50 into a goal from 8th in 2015 and 2016, to third in 2017.
This is thanks to the discovering off agile and mobile forwards, Cale Hooker, Joe Daniher, and James Stewart, while Orazio Fantasia, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Josh Green have provided the balance between attack and defence.
Essendon's ball movement is also a strength of their game. Their mark to play on ratio ranked third at 39 percent, while there ball movement was only matched by GWS, Adelaide and Sydney. They tracked at 66 percent better than the AFL average and were consistent across all areas of the ground.
Weaknesses: Defensive half turnovers was a massive issue for the Bombers last year. The midfield was dominated regularly and their boldness and attack out of defence are contributing factors of this, however itโs still an area to improve on.
Essendon turned the ball over 619 times in their defensive half, the second most in the competition, while what could be a positive, they only conceded 772 points from these turnovers, which is good considering they finished in the finals. In order to fix this weakness, they need to fix their territory problems, which is majorly down to fixing their midfield problems. So, can Stinger and Smith can get it done? Time will tell.
The Bombers also conceded the fourth most inside 50's last season, the second worst of the top 8 teams. They gave too many opportunities to the opposition to set up and gain territory, which again goes back to the lack of quality and consistency in the midfield.
Prediction
8th
After finishing 8th last year, Iโm predicting more of the same for next season. There recruits have looked like they have slotted in seamlessly, while Jake Stringer has the potential and ability to return to his 2016 form. They'll have plenty of competition that will be trying to knock them out of 8th, with positions between 7-13 being a really wide-open race this year.
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