Last Season
Hawthorn's season last year couldn't of started any worse, beginning with losses to Essendon and Adelaide in well fought out contests. With alarms not beginning to ring yet after 2 straight losses to start the season, they definitely started to ring after an 86 point loss to the winless Suns. At the end of April the Hawks were sitting at an unthinkable 1-5 with 3 losses by a margin of 70 points or more.
Cue, Alastair Clarkson, who threw the magnets around in a bid to rejuvenate their season. Jack Gunston moved to defence, along with young forward James Sicily, which saw back pocket Taylor Dureya moved up forward. With season ending injuries Cyril Rioli, Grant Birchall, Ben Stratton and James Frawley, along with prized recruit Jaeger O'Meara being sidelined with his persistent knee troubles, Clarkson turned to his younger brigade in a bid to win more games, with Ryan Burton being a standout as Hawthorn made a resurgent push to the finals after a dismal start.
The Hawks won nine and drew one of their last 16 games, beating premiership hopefuls Sydney and Adelaide in the process. They lost very winnable games against Gold Coast and Carlton that dented their chances of making finals for the 8th straight year. Jaeger O'Meara managed to play at the end of the season in a sign that he may finally be over his knee issues. From round 14 on wards they ranked 6th in the form ladder, even when they played all the top 4 finishing teams in the last 10 games.
Hawthorn did expose a lot of games to younger players last year, having used the 5th most players in the competition last year. They gave debuts to Dallas Willsmore, Harry Morrison and Teia Miles, whilst exposing Burton, Tim O'Brien, Daniel Howe, Blake Hardwick and Kaiden Brand to more senior footy.
Tom Mitchell showed he was worth every dollar Hawthorn payed last season to prize him away from the Swans by having an elite season, being crowned with All Australian honours and Hawthorn's best and fairest.
Off Season Grade
In: Jarman Impey, James Worpel (Pick 45), Dylan Moore (Pick 67), Jackson Ross (Pick 71)
Out: Luke Hodge, Tyrone Vickery, Billy Hartung
As Hodge made his way to the Lions, they snapped up Jarmen Impey early on, to show that he was recruited to fill a roll as a high half forward that can apply forward line pressure and bring some pace to an older list. Rather quiet compared to previous years, it was an improvement from last years trade period that saw the Hawks give a lot away for O'Meara. James Worpel looks a ready made player for the Hawks who is was an elite tackler in the TAC cup last year. Jackson Ross looks a promising dangerous forward, while Dylan Moore averaged 130 champion Data points (7th best) in the TAC cup last year, who ranked elite in contested possessions, ground ball gets and goals, who looks like the steal of the draft considering he was selected at pick 67.
Off season Grade: C
Defining Period
Hawthorn's fixture features one five six-day break, while they don't have to travel to Adelaide Oval at all this season after two trips last year. Luke Hodge won't have the homecoming he would of thought, with the Hawks playing the Lions in Tasmania rather then the MCG. If Hawthorn are wishing to return to the finals this season, they'll need to overcome a tough back end of the draw. They end the season with Sydney (away), Essendon (home), Geelong (home), St Kilda (away) and Fremantle (away) which is always a difficult trip. The Hawks always perform well in Sydney and against Geelong, whilst games against Essendon and the Saints will go a long way in shaping the eight. The Hawks may be wishing for that same form that they had at the end of last season if they wish to make the finals this time around.
Round 19 Sunday, Jul. 29 โ Fremantle, Perth Stadium (Away)
Round 20 Saturday, Aug. 4 โ Essendon, MCG (Home)
Round 21 Saturday, Aug. 11 โ Geelong Cats, MCG (Home)
Round 22 Saturday, Aug. 18th โ St Kilda, Etihad Stadium (Away)
Round 23 TBC โ Sydney Swans, SCG (Away)
Champion Data Suggests
Champion Data suggests that although the Hawks have rejuvenated their list, their "one wood" is still on display. Hawthorn's ability to use the football is still a strength, in particular from Round 14 on wards.
They ranked number one in the competition for disposals, effective kicks, effective short kicks, kicking efficiency, disposal efficiency, marks, uncontested marks and uncontested possessions between rounds 14-23. Even though their list was being refreshed and rebuilt, the Hawthorn brand was still reaming strong.
Champion Data also suggests that from round 14 on wards, Hawthorn had an increased importance on contested possessions, having won 5 of their last 10 contested possession counts, as opposed winning 2 of their first 12 battles to begin the season. The Hawks went from 18th in clearance differential to fourth, where from round 14 on wards, the Hawks had the third best pre-clearance contested possession differential of any side (+30).
Strengths and Weaknesses
Strengths: Tom Mitchell is a massive strength for the Hawks. The former Swan last year set a record for most disposals in a single season, along with being ranked 3rd overall last season in contested possessions. Although he won ample amounts of the footy, Mitchell was able to nullify the opposition as well, applying 143 tackles for the season, along with contributing 10.1 to the scoreboard. His ability to create space through his lateral kicking and hand balling was part of the reason why Hawthorn managed to win more games at the back half of the year.
Hawthorn also has a very dangerous forward line on paper when they are all fully fit. With Jarryd Roughead and Jack Gunston both above average key forwards, along with Cyril Rioli, Luke Bruest and Paul Puopolo who are all above average general forwards, they have a very good and balanced mix. Along with new recruit Jarman Impey who will bring more finish and forward pressure to the mix, the Hawks look dangerous in the forward half.
Weaknesses: With the forward line looking dangerous, can the Hawks forward line get enough supply? While they have Isaac Smith, Liam Shiels, Jaeger O'Meara, Tom Mitchell and Shaun Burgoyne, overall there midfield quality is ranked 14th in the competition. The Hawks have 16 midfield/mid-forwards on their list where nine of these players have failed to play 10 games over the past 2 years. The Hawks lack depth and polish in the midfield zone. They do have Harry Morrision and Kieran Lovell who haven't been exposed enough at AFL level who are rated highly within the club, while they still have former number 2 pick Jono O'Rourke on their list who has been ravaged by injuries.
Hawthorn's young defence is also a weakness for them coming into this season. Ranked 14th, Hawthorn's youngest positional area on the ground featured the likes of Ryan Burton, Blake Hardwick and James Sicily, who were all drafted as forwards, who just completed their first year as defenders. With James Frawley, Ben Stratton and Grant Birchall returning from injury, their leadership and guidance is only going to help these young players, even though Burton, Hardwick and Sicily all had a positive relative rating after their first season.
Prediction
10th
I had them finishing between 8th and 12th so I've settled at 10th. They are good enough to play finals, but whether or not they can make remains to be seen. They have a pretty difficult draw, only facing one bottom six side from last year twice, but the return of Rioli, Birchall, Frawley and Stratton will help the Hawks. It'll be interesting to see whether Gunston resumes his role as a forward, or if we see him play a high half forward/wing role to try and stretch the opposition. If O'Meara can get a full season under his belt, watch out for the partnership he will form with Mitchell and their ability to work together to work the ball laterally to players like Smith and Impey. The whole footy world is waiting for the Hawks to fall, where its seen that they are still hanging on, even though they haven't had a top 10 draft pick since 2006.
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