2023 Brownlow Medal: Predicting the top five

The 2023 Brownlow Medal awaits on Monday evening, with the league's best and fairest competitor set to be recognised at Melbourne's Crown Palladium.

This year's count appears likely to go right down to the wire, with Western Bulldogs captain Marcus Bontempelli and Collingwood father-son gun Nick Daicos representing the two main favourites to take out the prestigious award.

Daicos was considered the runaway winner prior to injuring his knee in Round 21, subsequently leaving the door open to a potential Bontempelli swoop, with the likes of Melbourne's Christian Petracca, Port Adelaide's Zak Butters, and Sydney's Errol Gulden also slated to press for high finishes on Monday.

The question is, though, did 'Bont' do enough in Daicos' three-game absence to get over the top of the magnificent Magpie in the umpires' unpredictable voting?

We made our top-five prediction in anticipation of Monday night's count.

Fifth place: Errol Gulden (Sydney Swans)

In terms of maximising votes, Gulden appears likely to be one of the main beneficiaries of Sydney's barnstorming finish to the home-and-away season.

The Swans won five of their last six regular season matches to storm into this year's finals series, with Gulden being a large reason why John Longmire's men triumphed in those contests.

Gulden finished fourth in the 2023 Zero Hanger MVP with 202 votes; just one vote shy of Brisbane's Lachie Neale and five votes clear of the sidelined Daicos.

The 21-year-old averaged 26.8 disposals per game this season, to go along with 5.2 marks, and 5.0 tackles. Further, Gulden ranked first in the AFL in inside-50s per game, second in metres gained per game, and third in the league in kicks per game.

The Swans' burgeoning Academy graduate averaged 28.3 disposals across Sydney's six-game winning streak from Rounds 18-23, placing the wingman in a strong position to make a late-count surge towards the top-five.

Fourth place: Zak Butters (Port Adelaide)

Zak Butters ranked sixth in our MVP count this year, tallying 188 votes throughout the course of a breakout season in Ken Hinkley's rising engine room.

Butters, who also earned a maiden All-Australian call-up this season, averaged 27.5 disposals, 5.0 marks, 3.4 tackles, and 5.2 inside-50s per game in 2023, helping rocket Port Adelaide into the top four.

The 23-year-old Western Jets graduate showcased his proficiency around stoppages this season, consistently proving an ability to win clearances as well as use the ball efficiently going inside Port's forward arc.

Like Gulden, Butters was particularly prolific during the latter stages of the home and away season, notching an average of 31.3 possessions per contest through the Power's Rounds 19-23 fixtures.

Third place: Christian Petracca (Melbourne)

Having finished second in our MVP voting this season, Petracca (224 votes) appears well-placed to stage a considerable Brownlow assault on Monday night.

Petracca, who averaged 27.8 disposals per game this season, ranked first in the league in score involvements per game in 2023. He also ranked tops in total inside-50s and total contested possessions.

Put simply, he was integral to Melbourne's cause, particularly in the protracted absence of midfield running mate Clayton Oliver, who was bogged down by a hamstring issue.

Petracca's main competition for this year's crown, coming as no surprise to anybody, is Bulldogs captain Bontempelli and star Magpies utility Nick Daicos.

While Daicos' late-season injury absence opens the door to Petracca potentially surpassing the Pie when the votes are counted, the Dees' prolific midfielder-forward will find it difficult to get by the dominant Bontempelli, who has already earned a suite of league honours this year.

Second place: Nick Daicos (Collingwood)

Daicos, if he doesn't prevail over Bontempelli, is a near-certainty to finish the count in second position on the leaderboard, having capped an almighty second AFL season at 20 regular season games.

The youngest son of the 'Macedonian Marvel' averaged a staggering 31.1 possessions per contest in 2023, as well as ranking first in the AFL in effective disposals per game, second in disposals per game, and sixth in uncontested possessions per game.

While he only finished fifth in our MVP voting (197 votes) behind the likes of Bontempelli, Petracca, Gulden, and Brisbane's Lachie Neale, the difference in sheer weight of votes cast between Brownlow voting (3, 2, 1) and that of the Zero Hanger MVP (5, 4, 3, 2, 1) meant there was more opportunity for Daicos to be overrun.

In addition to the consistent and undeniable season-long prowess of Bontempelli, Daicos' Round 21 knee injury against Hawthorn is likely the key factor that costs him his first Brownlow.

The 20-year-old, as well as anyone supporting his favourable triumph, will be hoping Bontempelli's influence wasn't felt as strongly in those pair of late-season Bulldogs defeats to the Hawks and Eagles, otherwise, he'll be wearing Charlie come Monday.

First place: Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)

Western Bulldogs captain Marcus Bontempelli appears in the box seat to take home Monday night's award after claiming this season's Zero Hanger MVP crown, as well as the 2023 AFL Players Association MVP.

Bontempelli's 243 Zero Hanger MVP votes edged out Demon Christian Petracca's second-place tally of 224.

Across the course of the 2023 campaign, the 27-year-old averaged 27.6 disposals per game to go along with 7.5 tackles, 5.7 inside-50s, and 7.6 clearances.

Bontempelli also ranked third in the league this season in contested possessions per game, third in centre clearances per game, fifth in clearances per game, sixth in score involvements per game, and fifth in total tackles.

He played in all 23 of the Bulldogs' games.

The Dogs' skipper, who was again selected to this year's All-Australian side, is likely to benefit from Collingwood star Nick Daicos' absence across the final three games of the home and away season.

The Bulldogs' skipper averaged 28.6 disposals, 9.3 tackles, and 8.3 clearances throughout his side's closing trio of games in 2023, though two of those performances -- against Hawthorn and the West Coast Eagles -- came in Bulldogs losses, clouding the possibility of nabbing three votes from those fixtures.