2024 AFL Finals

2024 AFL Grand Final: Who holds the advantage on each positional line?

Sydney and Brisbane each boast star-studded units all over the field. Who has the edge on Saturday?

Published by
Frank Seal

The wait is on for the 2024 AFL Grand Final!

Saturday's clash will be the ultimate test of skill, heart, resilience and courage between two sides at the home of football, the MCG.

Sydney and Brisbane have staked their claim as the two best sides of 2024, coming from wildly alternate circumstances to reach the final game of the season.

Sydney's hot start to the year held them in good stead to cruise to the minor premiership and earn the easier run to the big dance, while Brisbane managed to charge from 13th to top four contention in the matter of weeks, dancing on ice all the way to Saturday with a late-season surge like we've never seen.

Both sides boast star-studded lists and rock-solid systems in all areas of the ground, but while the best is decided on Saturday, we may as well compare the personnel in the lead-up.

This piece delves into the quality of each side on all positional lines, comparing the top-end talent and depth of all units, forward, back and through the middle, to decide who holds the edge and where.

Personnel isn't everything, as team systems will have much of the say in the game, but player performances matter in grand finals, and some are more likely than others to stand up.

Defence

Sydney:

Key defenders - Tom McCartin, Lewis Melican

General defenders - Nick Blakey, Dane Rampe, Jake Lloyd, Harry Cunningham, Callum Mills*, Robbie Fox*

Brisbane:

Key defenders - Harris Andrews, Jack Payne

General defenders - Brandon Starcevich, Ryan Lester, Dayne Zorko, Noah Answerth, Connor McKenna

These units are hard to split, Brisbane may have a slight edge from a personnel perspective while Sydney arguably boast the better defensive system.

The Lions' faithful will be demanding skipper Harris Andrews to put on a key defensive clinic against Sydney's susceptible and potentially hampered key forward unit, pending Logan McDonald's ankle concern.

Swans key-poster Tom McCartin has played well above initial expectations this season, but will have his hands full against a hungry Joe Daniher on a stage he is now used to.

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 29: Tom McCartin of the Swans looks on during the round seven AFL match between Sydney Swans and Greater Western Sydney Giants at Sydney Cricket Ground, on April 29, 2023, in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

The advantage for Sydney is their versatility, with Nick Blakey and Dane Rampe capable of spoiling opposing talls, beating opposing smalls and providing their own offensive weaponry. Blakey in particular will be eager to take the game on out of defence, using the full surface area of the MCG to dice through Brisbane's defence up the ground.

Skipper Callum Mills, if healthy, adds further versatility with his aerial and ground-level ability.

Brisbane's general defenders have stood up when required in this finals series and will need to do so this Saturday against a dangerous Sydney front half.

Starcevich likely goes to Papley for a riveting battle, Lester may look to free himself up for intercept marks without an obvious matchup set for him. Pending the momentum of the game, Luke Parker could be tasked with disrupting Brisbane's defence, potentially going to Lester to do so.

Dayne Zorko will be one to watch for a number of reasons; generating Brisbane's offensive chains out of defence, potentially being exposed the other way by Brisbane's mosquito fleet, or potentially being tagged by a James Jordon, Robbie Fox, or alternative options.

Midfield

Sydney:

Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, Errol Gulden, James Rowbottom, Ollie Florent, James Jordon, Justin McInerney, Brodie Grundy, Matthew Roberts, Braeden Campbell*

Brisbane:

Lachie Neale, Will Ashcroft, Hugh McCluggage, Josh Dunkley, Jarrod Berry, Darcy Wilmot, Jaspa Fletcher, Darcy Fort*

What a battle this will be!

They may have the number one and two ranked midfields in the competition, but it's safe to say Sydney still has the edge.

Heeney, Warner and Gulden may be three of the best four players on the ground, with dual-Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale probably sitting behind Heeney in that pecking order.

Ashcroft and McCluggage are superstars in their own right and could absolutely outperform their opposing mids with games from the top-shelf, but we can only wait and see.

BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 29: Will Ashcroft of the Lions celebrates a goal during the round seven AFL match between Brisbane Lions and Fremantle Dockers at The Gabba, on April 29, 2023, in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Chris Hyde/AFL Photos/via Getty Images )

James Rowbottom and Josh Dunkley are also hard to split as the defensively-minded pure inside mids. Dunkley has more pelts on the wall in his career but we'll call it even.

Florent, McInerney, Roberts and Campbell have all shown the capacity to be game-changing players on occasion, though none have impressed more than Brisbane winger Jarrod Berry this September.

Berry, Wilmot and Fletcher were all valuable in Saturday's prelim and may give Brisbane the outside advantage on the midfield spread.

One factor in Sydney's favour is the presence of the 'cooler'; James Jordon. He will likely be tasked with the Neale matchup, while Brisbane will be without a designated tagger for Sydney's big three, unless a positional sacrifice is made using Berry.

Sydney also hold the edge at ruck, boasting All-Australian recruit Brodie Grundy, while Lions' VFL star Darcy Fort likely steps in to replace the injured Oscar McInerney after the devastating sequence of events on Saturday.

Forward

Sydney:

Key forwards - Joel Amartey, Logan McDonald*, Hayden McLean

General forwards - Tom Papley, Will Hayward, Luke Parker

Brisbane:

Key forwards - Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood, Logan Morris

General forwards - Charlie Cameron, Callum Ah Chee, Cameron Rayner, Zac Bailey, Kai Lohmann

This is where Brisbane must strike, holding a clear advantage through the tall and small forward stocks.

Joe Daniher is the only certified star roaming through either key forward slot, and his performance in last year's grand final suggests he'll be ready for the moment.

Hipwood can stand up for a big play or two, but Logan Morris may be the secondary target inside 50 with his aerial ability

Tom Papley, Will Hayward and Luke Parker are all critical cogs with elite forward craft, but simply don't boast the same level of x-factor as Brisbane's forward unit.

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - MAY 01: Tom Papley of the Swans shows his emotion during the round seven AFL match between the Sydney Swans and the Geelong Cats at Sydney Cricket Ground on May 01, 2021 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

No one can predict which one of Charlie Cameron, Cam Rayner, Zac Bailey, Kai Lohmann or Cal Ah Chee will have the best day on Saturday. It was Ah Chee and Rayner who stood up last weekend, but Cameron and Bailey were difference makers in the big dance last year.

It appeared Brisbane had made progress toward solving their forward-line flaws in their preliminary final victory against Geelong, sharing the ball to a tee inside 50. If more of the same comes on Saturday, they will be hard to stop.

Published by
Frank Seal