The 2024 Brownlow Medal is almost upon us, and if it's anything like the season we've witnessed so far, we're in for a riveting count.
Once again, it is impossible to split the favourites, with all of Nick Daicos, Marcus Bontempelli, Patrick Cripps and Lachie Neale seemingly having an even chance to bring home 'Charlie'.
Footy fans will remember halfway through the season when the award was Isaac Heeney's to lose, having delivered best-on-ground performances in just about every game for the Swans.
His ineligibility and gradual regression through the dying stages of the season left the door open for other superstars of the competition to barge through, which some typical names did with conviction.
We predict the players most likely to kick off the count in style tonight before naming who we think will close the season better than the rest and potentially lock up the most prestigious award in football.
Fast starters
Isaac Heeney - Sydney
Heeney's the obvious hot starter, the unknown is just how wide the gap will be between he and second-place early.
Averaging 28 disposals, nearly two goals and over seven clearances for the first five weeks, Heeney could explode out to 15 votes by about Round seven or even earlier.
The only doubt lies with how much value the umpires place on his scoreboard contribution, which has been the separator between he and fellow stars of the league this season.
While he won't be securing the award due to a late-season suspension, the race to catch Heeney through the back half of the season will be thrilling to watch.
Caleb Serong - Fremantle
If there was any doubt that Serong had earned the mantle of 'number one' through the Freo midfield after last season, his start of 2024 put them to bed.
46 disposals in Round One against Brisbane ended up as the AFL season-high and should result in the first of many best-on-ground nods early in the year.
Serong's consistency has become a trademark of his game and will likely be indicated with a top-five or top-10 finish on the night.
He is set to poll in six of his first nine matches, averaging more than 33 disposals and eight clearances for that stretch, we'll see if the trajectory fades through the second half of the season.
Matt Rowell - Gold Coast
The 23-year-old looked like a start-up All-Australian ruck rover through his first seven games of the season, establishing himself as the league's most prolific in & under beast, clearance winner and tackler.
He should have six votes from the first two rounds, setting the tone with 20 clearances - AFL record - in O-Round against Richmond before continuing with 29 disposals, 10 tackles and nine clearances the following week.
The voting will dry up from about Round 11-20, but a strong final four rounds could throw a spanner in the works for the top 10 leaderboard.
Connor Rozee - Port Adelaide
Given a relatively underwhelming season overall for the Power skipper, Connor Rozee's hot start to 2024 has been somewhat forgotten.
27 and two goals against West Coast to kick off the season may well be a three-voter, while 36 and three goals against the Bombers in Round four absolutely will be.
Rozee's possessions catch the eye more than most due to his pace and explosion, so high-volume disposal matches for him may seduce the umpires better than other prolific ball-winners.
Fast finishers
Nick Daicos - Collingwood
Daicos played out the final stretch of the season like a man looking to poll in bulk, delivering four likely vote-getting performances in the last five rounds, kicked off by a 42-disposal, 11-clearance effort against Richmond.
His clutch performances against Carlton and Brisbane in Rounds 21 and 23 should be rewarded, kicking game-changing goals to go with typically prolific numbers in both.
40 touches to close the season against Melbourne will be another three-voter and may add to a wild final round of votes to decide the winner.
Lachie Neale - Brisbane
If Lachie Neale manages to snag a third Brownlow, it will be due to a sublime second half of the season having him predicted to poll in eight of the final 10 rounds.
Among those eight could be a handful of best-on-ground nods, having hit the scoreboard in a heap of wins for Brisbane in the lead-up to September.
The only hurdle standing in his way could be the potential voter fatigue that players can receive with the standard they've set in previous seasons.
But performances such as 36 disposals and three goals against Adelaide, 34 and two goals against West Coast, 35 and a goal against Gold Coast, plus 40 and a goal against Essendon are three-vote-worthy performances for any player.
Marcus Bontempelli - Western Bulldogs
The Bont found himself needing to perform like a Brownlow medallist in the final rounds of the season in order to keep his side alive in season 2024, helping drag his side to six of eight wins to finish sixth on the ladder.
Some of his performances are almost undermined by simply receiving three votes, given his total control on particular games, such as in Round 21 against Melbourne and Round 12 against Collingwood.
Like some predicted high-pollers, Bontempelli hits the scoreboard significantly. In fact, his goal-kicking knack could potentially hurt him, having spent much of the season playing a role up forward and finding less of the footy than he otherwise would.
Let's hope Ed Richards' Round 24 performance against GWS doesn't ruin Bont's chances of finally securing the elusive medal.
Patrick Cripps - Carlton
Cripps' finish to the season played out in a similar fashion to the Bulldog champ, being the driving force behind Carlton's quest for September with some inspirational individual efforts.
The Carlton skipper may genuinely be favoured for some best-on-ground nods in losses this year, including the final Round against St Kilda, when Cripps' third quarter single-handedly kept the Blues afloat.
He averages 30 disposals and eight clearances for the final five rounds, but with seven of Carlton's final nine matches culminating in losses, his vote-getting through the second half of the season will be an intriguing watch.
