Since the current top eight finals system was introduced in 2000, an average of 2.8 new teams join the top eight every year, although that average has increased to 3.1 since 2010.
While no less than two new teams have ever risen to the challenge of September, it's more likely that three bottom-ten finishers in 2024 will exchange places with finalists from last year in 2025.
2024 saw St Kilda, Melbourne and Collingwood all fall from the finals while Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs and Geelong reclaimed a spot in September.
So which clubs will fall, and which clubs will rise in 2025? Undertaking a view from a statistical perspective, here is what recent history suggests will be the change in order next year.
Since 2010, 40 teams who have made finals have fallen out of the eight the following season. The top four sides are by far more stable in returning to September the next year, while teams placed fifth through eighth are more likely to drop from the finals.
Fifth- and eighth-placed teams are equally likely to not return the following year, failing to make consecutive finals appearances from nine of the last 14 years.
Does this mean reigning premiers Brisbane may continue the recent premiership hangovers by Collingwood and Geelong, after they finished fifth in the 2024 home and away season?
It's hard to assume so due to their growing list of young stars including Will and Levi Ashcroft, Kai Lohmann and Logan Morris, while their squad will be bolstered by the returns of Keidean Coleman, Tom Doedee and Lincoln McCarthy from their respective ACL injuries.
The data also presents a scary omen for Carlton, who cannot afford to go without a deep September charge again given the abundance of stars on their list. However, history suggests they may be on the chopping block from finals in 2025.
The third side that could be shown the door from September action suggests to be the Bulldogs, as sixth-placed teams failed to back up their finals run eight times since 2010. Likewise to the Blues, the Bulldogs have a star-studded list but have failed to make a deep September charge since their 2021 runners-up effort.
| Team Ladder Position | Times failed to make finals the next year (since 2010) |
| 1st | 4 |
| 2nd | 2 |
| 3rd | 3 |
| 4th | 3 |
| 5th | 9 |
| 6th | 8 |
| 7th | 5 |
| 8th | 9 |
Unsurprisingly, the teams knocking on the door from the season prior are able to burst into the top eight the next season. Both ninth- and tenth-placed teams have made the leap into September action eight times from the last 14 years, eclipsing all other bottom-10 positions.
It means the Dockers not only have the added star-power of Shai Bolton to boost their finals aspirations, but also have history on their side as they aim to make finals for the first time since 2022.
Furthermore, Collingwood may follow in the footsteps of Geelong yet again with a rebound season after failing to defend their reigning premiers title.
Intriguingly, the next most likely team to exchange a spot inside the eight is Melbourne, who finished 14th in 2024. 14th-placed teams have climbed the ladder to a top-eight spot six times since 2010.
With talent oozing in all three lines of the field, perhaps a year without off-field noise and consistency on the park could propel the Demons back into the eight in 2025, leaving their disastrous 2024 as a blip on the radar.
| Team Ladder Position | Times made finals after missing the year prior (since 2010) |
| 9th | 8 |
| 10th | 8 |
| 11th | 5 |
| 12th | 5 |
| 13th | 4 |
| 14th | 6 |
| 15th | 1 |
| 16th | 4 |
| 17th | 1 |
| 18th | 1 |