AFL 2025: How open is each club’s premiership window?

Every fan's question leading into the new season is 'What should I expect of my club in 2025?' For some, it will be, and rightfully so, staking their claim as genuine contenders for the premiership. For others, it will likely be to avoid the wooden spoon. Irrespective of yesteryear's highs and lows, with the new year comes a new outlook that all 18 clubs can push for the ultimate glory, and 2025 is no different. Thus, we examine where each side sits in terms of their respective 'premiership window' on various levels: wide open, opening, closing, and locked shut. Adelaide Opening The Crows have been starved of finals opportunities since their disastrous grand final loss in 2017 to Richmond. Since then, it has been a long road back that has welcomed many stars from rival clubs, and the 2024 off-season was no different. Adelaide narrowly, and most would say wrongly, missed out on September action in 2023, meaning their game plan can stack up under Matthew Nicks. However, entering his fifth year, with no tangible improvement coming out of West Lakes, 2025 is a do-or-die year for Nicks. The Crows welcomed Giants duo Isaac Cumming and James Peatling that will immediately improve their back half and midfield cohort whilst the inclusion of Alex Neal-Bullen will add further firepower to the strong running game between the arcs that Nicks has developed. [caption id="attachment_157521" align="alignnone" width="1440"] Isaac Cumming of the Adelaide Crows at training in 2024 (Image via Adelaide FC)[/caption] Then the South Australian wunderkind in Sid Draper, who looks as ready as a draftee can be to make an impact at the elite level, is exciting enough for fans. Adelaide ranks middle-tier for age (24.8 years avg.) and 12th for experience (69 games), which historically has boded well for clubs attempting to push up the ladder. And although we feel they are in the next bracket of clubs below the Brisbanes and Sydneys, finals shouldn't be too far away. Brisbane Wide open Fresh off a hard-earned premiership that took six years of heartbreaking losses and close finishes, the Lions were once again crowned kings of the jungle. But unfortunately for their rivals, we don't tip them going anywhere fast. Brisbane's list is stacked full of talent on all lines, and aside from Dayne Zorko at age 36 (when the season starts), the majority of players are entering their prime, in it or seemingly extending it, like Ryan Lester (32) and Lachie Neale (31). Despite being one of the oldest clubs in the competition, Chris Fagan and his men have created an environment that pulls star players to Queensland, like Josh Dunkley and Neale. They've also managed to retain some of the emerging stars of the competition, locking away Hugh McCluggage and Cam Rayner to long-term deals, which is a true testament to where the club is at. [caption id="attachment_155562" align="alignnone" width="2560"] MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - SEPTEMBER 28: Callum Ah Chee (left) and Cam Rayner of the Lions celebrate during the 2024 AFL Grand Final match between the Sydney Swans and the Brisbane Lions at The Melbourne Cricket Ground on September 28, 2024 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)[/caption] Not to mention the talent pathways that have seen three first-round selections taken by the contending Lions in recent years; the Ashcroft brothers and Sam Marshall. The only unknown is the hunger Brisbane has to reach the pinnacle of Australian rules football once again, which has proven difficult for the two previous premiers. But as long as Fagan still has the drive, and now has a couple more years of security, and the players remain together, there's no doubt that the Lions can replicate what their forefathers achieved in the early 2000s. Carlton Wide open The Blues' hard work in the late 2010s and early 2020s has led to them being perfectly placed to make a genuine push for a flag. Carlton's spine is arguably the greatest in the competition, headlined by spearhead forwards Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay as well as being led by Patrick Cripps and Jacob Weitering. And the emerging Tom De Koning, who is the modern-day prototype of a star ruckman, and Michael Voss have plenty to work with. Defensive recruit Nick Haynes enters the club as the oldest player on the list, which is a nod to how well they've developed and managed to retain and obtain players of an impressive ilk to be in the premiership conversation. And they should be there for quite a while. [caption id="attachment_148348" align="alignnone" width="2560"] MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 14: Patrick Cripps (left) and Tom De Koning of the Blues celebrate during the 2024 AFL Round 01 match between the Carlton Blues and the Richmond Tigers at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on March 14, 2024 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)[/caption] The Blues proved they were capable of running deep in September when they pushed past Sydney and Melbourne to make the penultimate weekend before running into a rampant Brisbane outfit in 2023. Last year played out similarly, remaining inside the top eight for all but two weeks despite a poor final month of the home and away campaign, resulting in another bout with the Lions that ended their year earlier than hoped. Carlton's ability to take the next step will rely heavily on the availability of their stars, which at times in 2024 was stripped from them. Michael Voss plausibly has one of the most stacked lists in the league, but to win a premiership, talent can only get you so far. Collingwood Closing At this stage, it is understandable to believe that the Pies' premiership window is closing, and closing quickly. The powerhouse club sits roars above the rest of the competition as the oldest, and most experienced team, which Craig McRae has philosophised as the way to win flags. Collingwood will have 12 players 30 years or older by the time finals roll around, with a lot of the stars firmly amongst the dozen. But the AFL world would not want to sell the black-and-white club short, after all, they won a premiership 16 months ago. [caption id="attachment_153590" align="alignnone" width="2013"] MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - SEPTEMBER 30: The Magpies celebrate during the 2023 AFL Grand Final match between the Collingwood Magpies and the Brisbane Lions at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on September 30, 2023 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)[/caption] And aside from Jack Ginnivan (Hawthorn), all have remained on the list, with some very special players added since. So yes, at this stage, the Pies are heading for a cliff, purely because they have the majority of their starting 23 in the twilight of their careers. And for that reason, their window is beginning to shut. But things can change very quickly. Essendon Locked shut Essendon's 2024 season went much like the years gone by: full of hope during the summer, leading to a positive start to the campaign before dwindling to narrowly miss the eight. The Bombers have been in no man's land for well over a decade, laying claims to making the finals as opposed to pursuing a flag. Brad Scott has shown that when he can get his men working in sync, they are capable of matching it with the best. [caption id="attachment_149784" align="alignnone" width="2560"] MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 12: Brad Scott, Senior Coach of the Bombers looks on during the 2024 AFL Round 05 match between the Western Bulldogs and the Essendon Bombers at Marvel Stadium on April 12, 2024, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)[/caption] But until they can do it consistently, they will continue to remain within the middle tier of the competition. However, the Bombers have a raft of young talent that should hold the club in good stead for years to come, but not yet prying open the premiership window. Fremantle Opening The Dockers are building something special and the competition knows it. The acquisition of Shai Bolton from Richmond has officially opened the premiership window. Justin Longmuir has been widely criticised for his mundane game style that revolves around defending the opposition as opposed to attacking the game. As a result, Fremantle sits comfortably as one of the best defensive outfits in the league. [caption id="attachment_157215" align="alignnone" width="2560"] Shai Bolton and Caleb Serong of the Fremantle Dockers at training in 2024 (Image via Fremantle FC)[/caption] But what Dockers fans saw in 2024 was a shift to win the game, reflected by their daring ball movement from the back half through handball chains and linking up through the midfield. And with a stacked on-ball brigade coupled with a stingy defence, the last line is the attack, in which Josh Treacy and Jye Amiss have quickly emerged as the leaders of the group. The West Australian club has persevered through mediocrity for too long and should be expected to contend for the foreseeable future. Geelong Open As is every year, you simply cannot count Geelong out of the premiership equation. The perpetually contending Cats have defied the odds year after year, and under the direction of Chris Scott, there shouldn't be any surprise. After a lull year in 2023, Geelong returned to familiar territory last year and was one straight kick away from a grand final appearance. [caption id="attachment_154824" align="alignnone" width="2560"] ADELAIDE, AUSTRALIA - SEPTEMBER 05: Gryan Miers of the Cats celebrates a goal during the 2024 AFL Second Qualifying Final match between the Port Adelaide Power and the Geelong Cats at Adelaide Oval on September 05, 2024 in Adelaide, Australia. (Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)[/caption] The acquisition of Bailey Smith does extend their contending aspirations whilst the unearthing of lesser likes and the emergence of the youngsters continue to put Scott's men in the mix. The Cats dipped in average age to rank fifth in the competition but do have a myriad of required players nearing the end of their careers. How they manage the upcoming retirements of their club legends will determine how long this window remains open. Gold Coast Locked shut The Suns' premiership window will remain shut until they can prove they are worthy of playing football in September. It has been widely documented but it must be made note of: Gold Coast haven't made the finals since their introduction to the competition in 2011. Damien Hardwick was brought in ahead of the 2024 season to make a dramatic change, which at times looked to be apparent. [caption id="attachment_150686" align="alignnone" width="2560"] GOLD COAST, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 16: Damien Hardwick, Senior Coach of the Suns looks on during the round one AFL match between Gold Coast Suns and Adelaide Crows at People First Stadium, on March 16, 2024, in Gold Coast, Australia. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)[/caption] But needless to say, as has been the consistent narrative throughout the past decade, the Suns faltered when it mattered most. With the amount of talent on their list, it should be expected that they are contending now and for the next 10 years. This is why the former Richmond premiership coach accepted the role; to do the unthinkable and take Gold Coast to the finals and beyond. GWS Wide Open Unlike their expansion-club counterpart, the Giants have been genuine contenders since they burst onto the finals scene in 2016, and were largely favourites to take the crown. As a result of impressive player management and development, they've managed to stay around the mark, including losing their last three finals by a combined margin of 12 points. Aside from Callan Ward (35) and Lachlan Keefe (34), GWS remains relatively young, with Toby Greene the next oldest at 31, hinting at their continual flag contention. [caption id="attachment_130141" align="alignnone" width="2040"] GWS Giants' Toby Greene and senior coach Adam Kingsley during the 2023 AFL pre-season (Image: GWS Giants Twitter)[/caption] The only issue the Giants face is fighting off rival clubs for their star players, as reflected by the mini exodus that saw Isaac Cumming, James Peatling, Harry Perryman and Nick Haynes depart the club. In turn, the New South Wales club safeguarded their future by adding three players within the first 24 picks in the 2024 draft, on top of their pair from the opening round the year before. GWS has a sustainable game plan that should hold them in good stead whilst their drafting approach should only fuel their desire to be a difficult team to play against. Hawthorn Wide open Plenty can be said about Hawthorn so we'll keep this short. Their staggering 2024 season has placed them well and truly among the top contenders for 2025. But their list suggests they'll stay there for many years to come. Luke Breust and Jack Gunston are the oldest players at the club, and despite planning their retirement, they still have plenty of influence on games. From there, the Hawks' list would traditionally sit precariously in the competition given their youth and age. [caption id="attachment_154854" align="alignnone" width="2560"] MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - SEPTEMBER 06: Nick Watson of the Hawks celebrates with fans during the 2024 AFL Second Elimination Final match between the Western Bulldogs and the Hawthorn Hawks at The Melbourne Cricket Ground on September 06, 2024 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)[/caption] But what Sam Mitchell has done has revolutionised how the club plays its football, which is both intoxicating and intimidating. A three-point semi-final loss put an abrupt end to one of the most remarkable seasons by a club in recent memory but has Hawthorn well placed to return to the promised land. Albeit to the dismay of the rival supporters. Melbourne Closing A lot has been written about where Melbourne stands among the competition and the fact is, no one really knows. They won a flag three years ago before consecutive top-four finishes that ended in straight sets exits seemingly papered over cracks that have come to the fore in 2024. The narrative around Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver damaged the club while the premature retirement of Angus Brayshaw and the drug scandal involving Joel Smith shoved the Demons further into a dark pit. [caption id="attachment_149323" align="alignnone" width="2560"] MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - JULY 14: Christian Petracca of the Demons celebrates a goal during the round 18 AFL match between Melbourne Demons and Brisbane Lions at Melbourne Cricket Ground, on July 14, 2023, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)[/caption] But aside from the persistent off-field drama, Melbourne appears as a smokey in 2025, albeit waning. The club has 16 2021 premiership players remaining on the list whilst an assembly of young talent is already making their mark. But with the ageing Max Gawn and Jack Viney, coupled with the unknown futures of Petracca, Oliver and Kysaiah Pickett, the Demons must strike now or fear a period of mediocrity. North Melbourne Locked shut There's no surprise that North Melbourne's premiership window is indeed 'locked shut'. But things can turn and turn quickly. Just ask Hawthorn. The Kangaroos have been building for the better part of a decade, and on paper, have enough talent to show much-needed promise for their fans. [caption id="attachment_156987" align="alignnone" width="2560"] MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - NOVEMBER 20: Finn O'Sullivan of the Kangaroos (C) poses for a photograph with teammates (L-R) Colby McKercher, Zane Duursma, George Wardlaw and Harry Sheezel of the Kangaroos during the 2024 AFL Draft at Marvel Stadium on November 20, 2024, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)[/caption] The youngest club in the competition, Alastair Clarkson targeted experienced heads to help develop the correct standards and instil those into the youth coming through the ranks as we speak. Kangaroos fans will need to be patient a little while longer. Port Adelaide Open The Power's flag chances hover precariously over the club like a dark cloud. Ken Hinkley's time at the helm has been largely successful, although he, and the club, have yet to convert their home and away dominance into anything meaningful. As a result, Hinkley, who enters his 13th season as Port Adelaide coach, has the unwanted V/AFL record of most games coached without making the Grand Final. [caption id="attachment_155090" align="alignnone" width="2560"] ADELAIDE, AUSTRALIA - SEPTEMBER 13: Mitch Georgiades of the Power celebrates a goal during the 2024 AFL SecondSemi-Finall match between the Port Adelaide Power and the Hawthorn Hawks at Adelaide Oval on September 13, 2024, in Adelaide, Australia. (Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)[/caption] From a list perspective, the Power has plenty to work with. Their on-ball brigade possesses arguably the best one-two-three punch in Butters, Rozee and Horne-Francis while their forward line is full of youth, improved upon by the drafting and trading of Jack Lukosius, Joe Berry, Joe Richards and Jack Whitlock. So from a long-term standpoint, Port Adelaide is nicely placed. Richmond Locked shut Like North Melbourne, the Tigers aren't expected to be contending any time soon. Richmond, boldly, opted to part ways with a host of premiership stars to obtain draft capital that was turned into seven draft picks from the 2024 draft, including the prized first selection. [caption id="attachment_156981" align="alignnone" width="2560"] MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - NOVEMBER 20: Richmond's draft picks, Sam Lalor, Josh Smillie and Harry Armstrong pose for a photo during the 2024 Telstra AFL Draft at Marvel Stadium on November 20, 202,4 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)[/caption] The Punt Road club has provided a clear path out of this rebuild, and that revolves around developing and retaining the group of draftees that walked through the door. As a result, Tigers fans will need to sit patiently and wait their turn, albeit with a wry grin on their face following the recent dynasty that resulted in three flags not long ago. St Kilda Locked shut Similar to Essendon, the Saints sit somewhere in the middle of the competition but don't pose a real threat to the flag race. A finals team in 2023 and 2020, St Kilda had become used to being a club littered with mediocrity since the last 2000s. And it's hard to see how they dramatically rise up the ladder to seemingly open the premiership window. [caption id="attachment_152739" align="alignnone" width="1064"] Mattaes Phillipou celebrates St Kilda's win over Sydney in R17, 2024. Picture: AFL Photos[/caption] One thing working in the Moorabbin club's favour is the youth and age demographic of the list. St Kilda boasts one of the younger and more inexperienced lists in the competition, and yet are still able to compete with the league's best, albeit without making finals. Ross Lyon has always had a knack for getting more out of his players than most and his current crop of Saints have been no different. But to take the next step and open the premiership window, the Saints will need to tuck into its war chest and fish out some big stars from rival clubs. Not only will it accelerate its intention to contend for a flag, but also improve the bottom three or four in the senior side, which is the difference between finals or an extended holiday. Sydney Open It is hard to see a grand finalist drop dramatically from one year to the next, and in Sydney's case, it should be near impossible given their list. The Swans have feasibly become the AFL's destination club, with location and consistent premiership contention playing major factors. A pair of grand final losses in three years shouldn't deter the 'Bloods' from remaining near the top of the table, albeit the desire to get there can make or break a club's spirit after getting so close. Sydney ranks middle tier for age (25 years) and top-four for experience (82.8 games) but has a wealth of young stars who are taking the game by storm. [caption id="attachment_151060" align="alignnone" width="2560"] SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - MAY 17: James Rowbottom, Isaac Heeney and Tom Papley of the Swans walk down the race after victory during the round 10 AFL match between Sydney Swans and Carlton Blues at SCG, on May 17, 2024, in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)[/caption] Former captain Dane Rampe is likely the only player who would even contemplate retiring, meaning new head coach Dean Cox can plan for the now and the future. Since 1996, the Swans have gone on holiday early on five occasions, making the finals an impressive 24 times since. And there's no suggestion that trend won't continue. West Coast Locked shut The Eagles improved in 2024 but still placed firmly toward the bottom of the ladder. A new coach (Andrew McQualter) with new ideas should excite the club's fans, while an influx of mature-aged talent and draftees should only brighten up the place. However, in terms of returning to the premiership fold, West Coast is a long way off. [caption id="attachment_155612" align="alignnone" width="2560"] PERTH, AUSTRALIA - SEPTEMBER 30: Andrew McQualter, senior coach of the West Coast Eagles poses during a West Coast Eagles AFL press conference at Mineral Resources Park on September 30, 2024, in Perth, Australia. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)[/caption] A club that won the premiership in 2018 will likely have to wait a decade since then memorable day to be around the mark again, giving time for the youngsters to develop into the league's best. But that's not to say they can't ruffle a few feathers on the way. And as we know, things can change very quickly. Western Bulldogs Open The Bulldogs are one of the more intriguing clubs in the AFL. A team, under Luke Beveridge, has never finished inside the top four, has played in two grand finals and secured a drought-breaking premiership. For that reason, there is not many in the modern day credentialed moreso than Beveridge. Possessing arguably the best player in the modern game helps with that fact, while consistently unveiling young star talent always props up the thought that this team isn't far away from a premiership. But in 2024, the Bulldogs were the second-best offensive team and the best defensive team, but couldn't convert that into a meaningful run in the finals, losing to Hawthorn in the opening week. And that's been the narrative more often than not. Beveridge and his coaching group have done well in consistently topping up the list with high-end talent, ensuring a new wave of youngsters don the red, white and blue each year. As a result, the Victorian club is a hard read, therefore difficult to confidently place them among the genuine contenders. But on paper, they are.

AFL 2025: How open is each club’s premiership window?

Is the window wide open, slightly ajar, or firmly locked? We give our verdict for each of the 18 clubs.

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		P	W	L	PTS	%
1	SYD	23	17	6	68	126.7
2	PORT	23	16	7	64	114.8
3	GEEL	23	15	8	60	112.2
4	GWS	23	15	8	60	109.1
5	BL	23	14	8	58	121.9
6	WB	23	14	9	56	125.1
7	HAW	23	14	9	56	118.5
8	CARL	23	13	10	52	110.2