The AFL's plans for clubs to pay a premium on father-son and Academy talent will come into effect this year under the competition's new draft points index and further changes to the bidding system.
Last November's draft haul saw three matched bids made in the first 13 selections, with Brisbane father-son Levi Ashcroft going at Pick 5, Suns Academy gun Leonardo Lombard picked four spots later and Essendon NGA talent Isaac Kako taken at Pick 13.
Gold Coast's acquisition of Lombard came after the Queensland club secured four club-tied teenagers in the first round of the 2023 AFL Draft, with questions arising over the low spending required to secure some of the nation's best-emerging talent.
Similar concerns were sparked at last year's National Draft, which would be the last intake under the now-old draft value index, with the league revealing a new value for selections in the opening three rounds of the draft from 2025.
Pick 1 still holds the same value at 3000 points, while all following picks have seen their value cut to make it harder for clubs to package middle-range selections to match bods for some of the best picks in the draft order, while any pick after Pick 54 has not been given any value.
For example, Pick 19 - the first pick of the second round- has dropped 152 points in value, sitting at 796 points, down from 948. Pick 37 - the first selection of the third round - has dropped from 483 points to 297, a fall of 186 points.
The AFL has also halved the discount applied to match bids on father-son and Academy talent, falling to 10 per cent from 20.
In 2024, Melbourne's forced Brisbane bid for Ashcroft at Pick 5 meant the Lions would need to cough up 1502.4 points (1878 for Pick 5 with a 20 per cent cut).
Under the new draft value index and with a smaller discount, Brisbane would need to match a bid at Pick 5 with 1615.5 points - an increase of 113.1 points.
The Lions were able to use Picks 40, 42, 43 and 46 to secure Ashcroft in a bid last year, however those selections in 2025 would only net them 758 points, a deficit of 775 points (approx. Pick 19) from 2024.
A bid for Pick 5 this year would mean the Lions would need a package close to Picks 18, 36 and 54 (the last selections of the first three rounds), which totals 1707 points, giving them 91.5 points leftover (approx. Pick 65 in return).
The Lombard bid at Pick 9 last year saw the Suns needing 1175.2 points following the 20 per cent discount, with Gold Coast using Picks 40, 41, 48 and 58 (1313 points) to secure the local young gun while getting Picks 58, 89 and 94 (170 points) in return.
VIEW: 2025 AFL Draft Order
That same selections in 2025 would mean the Suns would need 1219.5 points to land Lombard, with Picks 40, 41, 48 and 58 in 2025 only giving them 560 points - a deficit of 659.5 points (approx. Pick 22).
Pick 10 alone would get them over the line for a Pick 9 bid, giving them 56.5 points to spare. A package of Picks 11 and 53 would also do the job, as would a later package of Picks 20 and 29.
Essendon's play for Kako at Pick 13 saw the Bombers use Picks 33 and 34 to match a bid valued at 969.6 points after the discount. In 2025, that bid would need 972 points, which is a smaller increase compared to bids for Ashcroft and Lombard, however the drop in value for later selections still makes it tougher to match.
Picks 33 and 34 in 2025 would only net you 742 points (a drop of 230 points), with a bid at Pick 13 this year needing a package in the range of Pick 15, or Picks 28 and 29.
While the Bombers might not have access to a bonafide first-round talent for the 2025 draft, the Suns and Lions look set to closely monitor the draft order and value index given their ties to some of this year's leading teenagers.
After securing Ashcroft and Academy gun Sam Marshall, Brisbane has another draft prospect in their reach: Dan Annable, an AFL Academy member who looms as a potential top 10 selection.
Gold Coast - who hold a trio of first-round picks for this year's intake - could mirror their 2023 draft haul later this year given the riches of strong names coming through the Suns Academy, with Pick 1 contender Zeke Uwland - the younger brother of Bodhi - one of the leading names in this year's class.
Beau Addinsall, Dylan Patterson and Kalani White are also tied to the Suns via their Academy, however the latter is also linked with Melbourne as a father-son.
White is likely to follow dad Jeff, who went Pick 1 in 1994 to Fremantle before swapping to the Demons ahead of the 1998 season, in donning the red and blue come 2026. The issue for Melbourne will be their lack of first-round access this year, having traded their opening pick to Essendon over the off-season.
The Demons have their own second and fourth-round selections for 2025, as well as Adelaide's third-round pick.
Sydney are another club with a handful of club-tied prospects, with Academy trio Max King, Noah Chamberlain and Lachie Carmichael also in first-round contention ahead of their draft campaigns.
Tom McGuane (Collingwood father-son), Louis Kellaway (Richmond father-son), Wes Walley (West Coast NGA), Charlie Banfield (West Coast father-son), Ben Rongdit (Geelong NGA), Harry Dean (Carlton father-son), Toby Whan (Fremantle NGA) and Tyson Gresham (Carlton NGA) are others to keep an eye on in 2025.
