For the fourth time in five years, the club that holds the prized Pick 1 is faced with a decision on draft night: Do we bid on a top-rated father-son or Academy gun?
In 2020, Adelaide bid on Western Bulldogs Next Generation Academy prospect Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, a strategic move to help wipe the Victorian club off the draft board.
The following year, North Melbourne avoided bidding on the likes of Sam Darcy (Pick 2) and Nick Daicos (Pick 4), taking Jason Horne-Francis at Pick 1.
The Kangaroos wouldn't replicate their decision in 2022, forcing Brisbane to pay for Will Ashcroft at Pick 2 before landing Harry Sheezel and George Wardlaw.
And now it's Richmond's turn, as the Tigers have the chance to bid on Ashcroft's younger brother, Levi, or choose another exciting prospect at Pick 1 that will call Punt Road home.
So the question is: Will they or won't they?
In the case of the Crows, it was reported that the South Australian club and the Bulldogs were after small forward James Rowe, who was tipped to be drafted later in the piece.
Adelaide's bid on Ugle-Hagan forced the Victorian club to pay maximum value, utilising all but one draft selection, which, after all was said and done, came at Pick 55 (Dominic Bedendo). Rowe was taken with Pick 38.
The Pies got away with one when Daicos was bid on by the Suns at Pick 4, allowing the club to use their residual draft capital to secure a trio of players later in the draft, one of which was Harvey Harrison (Pick 52).
Richmond's case differs from those that have gone before them.
The Tigers have a raft of selections that have been widely documented, rivalling the likes of expansion clubs Gold Coast and GWS when they entered the league over a decade ago.
And whether they bid on Levi Ashcroft may have more cons than pros, and we'll show you why.
Why clubs SHOULD bid on star prospects
Richmond's historic draft hand will dominate November 20 when they welcome a cohort of future stars.
Given Ashcroft's allegiance to the Lions, there is no discernible advantage from selecting him at Pick 1 other than forcing the 2024 premiers to pay maximum value.
As of 2025, the AFL has revamped its draft points system, forcing clubs to pay fairer prices for father-son, NGA and Northern Academy prospects.
But right now, Brisbane will cash in unless the Tigers call his name out first.
Pick 1 is worth 3,000 points, but the Lions will receive a 20 per cent discount given the father-son tag.
It is then a pretty steep drop off for the following selections, falling to 2,034 points at Pick 4, which Ashcroft won't go lower than.
The other reason is to transfer the weight of expectations of being the prized Pick 1 to a player heading to another club, all of which can play a role in an individual's psyche.
Collingwood great Scott Pendlebury sympathised on being called out first (not that he did in 2005), which comes with larger amounts of scrutiny and focus, saying that "he'd rather go Pick 2".
"It's like there's only him (pick one) in the draft and he's put on this pedestal, and then pick number two is almost like pick 70," Pendlebury said on the Jock and Journo podcast 12 months ago.
The weight of expectations has proved difficult for some to deal with, especially Melbourne pair Jack Watts (2008) and Tom Scully (2009) and GWS forwards Jonathon Patton (2011) and Tom Boyd (2013).
All four finished their careers at different clubs.
Why clubs should NOT bid on star prospects
As we see during trade negotiations, fostering positive relationships with rival clubs and their list managers can pay dividends.
Smooth discussion and discourse can assist in moving both players and picks around, which at times has caused the league to question its legitimacy.
The league issued warnings regarding "side deals", which stipulate clubs won't bid on linked players due to a trade that had previously gone through.
Example: The Lions and Tigers engaged in a pick swap which saw Richmond claim Pick 20 in exchange for a raft of later selections that boosted Brisbane's draft capital to match any bids on Ashcroft and Academy prospect Sam Marshall.
Albeit near impossible to prove the collusion between the two clubs, the AFL insisted on placing AFL player movement manager Ned Guy and an integrity department staffer in those meetings, where clubs were reminded about their obligations, according toย Herald Sun's Jon Ralph.
A case can be made for Essendon and Melbourne during their exchange of Pick 9, with Bombers NGA star Isaac Kako likely to fall around that range.
Another consideration for taking a player that isn't connected to a rival is marketability. At Pick 1, all eyes are on the player's future and if he'll change the fortunes of a club.
In Richmond's case, having claimed the wooden spoon in 2024, they are looking for the face of their future that will carry the Punt Road side for the next decade back to the promised land.
Pushing the Tigers recruit to Pick 2 due to an Ashcroft bid could result in a disenchantment with the club.
And if all else fails, albeit unlikely to occur at Pick 1, is, the bluff isn't called.
Everyone knows Ashcroft is heading to Queensland to join his brother, but in an alternate universe where Richmond bid on him to extort more draft points from the Lions, it could backfire if Brisbane wanted another player.
Key phrase: "alternate universe".
Needless to say, Richmond has plenty of work ahead of November 20, but with a draft hand like theirs, it's hard to go wrong.
