We've finally hit the 2023 AFL Finals series, and the race for the flag is currently wide open.
Collingwood managed to win the minor premiership after a bumpy run home, but are they still the favourites? They'll meet fellow contender Melbourne in week one in a game that could ultimately decide who stands on the dais on the last Saturday of the month.
Or, will the Brisbane Lions find themselves in a grand final? They have been tantalisingly close on multiple occasions and after securing a home qualifying final this season they loom as a strong chance to go on and secure a home preliminary final.
Whilst it is harder for teams outside the top four to find themselves tasting premiership success, Carlton are riding a wave of belief into finals. Most of their players have never played in a final before but will be ready against the experienced Sydney Swans side who will be out to rectify the mistakes they made in last year's decider.
With such a wide open premiership race, we have broken down how every team performs; what to expect from them, their strengths, weaknesses, star player and a player who could break September wide open.
What to expect: Collingwood wrapped up the minor premiership last weekend after a scintillating first quarter against Essendon. Whilst they faded after half time, their eight-goal first quarter showcased some of their best footy and should be a warning to opposition teams of how well they can play when they move the ball fast into their forward half. With key players Darcy Moore, Nathan Murphy and Beau McCreery set to return for the qualifying final and Nick Daicos not too far away, Collingwood should be getting back to playing their style of footy which saw them as the team to beat for most of the year.
Strengths: Collingwood's belief and never say die attitude has the ability to get them over the line in finals, and they play as a better team when they do so. Last time they played Melbourne in Round 13, Collingwood outscored the Demons with 3.3 to 2.7 in the final term, showing they can apply the pressure when it's most needed.
Weaknesses: Once renowned for their defensive efforts, Collingwood's defence was ranked 18th headed into Round 24. Collingwood conceded over 100 points to their opposition three weeks in a row, ranking lower than even West Coast for points conceded. Collingwood seemed to rectify this issue against Essendon, holding them to only 31 points for the game. If they are to beat Melbourne next Thursday, they'll have to hold them to under 100 points. Collingwood also ranks second last in the competition for centre clearances.
Star player: Jordan De Goey
Collingwood is a better side when De Goey is fit and firing, as evidenced when he returned from suspension earlier this year. His ability around stoppages raises Collingwood's clearance ability and subsequently their scoring. De Goey is box office, with his finals performance against Geelong last year demonstrating he performs on the big stage in September - he finished the game with 26 disposals, eight clearances, nine tackles, and two goals to arguably be the best on ground. Having sustained a glute injury against Geelong and missing the Brisbane game, the pre-finals bye will ensure that De Goey is feeling much closer to 100 percent.
Breakout player: Jeremy Howe
Howe has been a revelation for the Magpies in recent weeks, kicking seven goals after being thrown forward back in Round 20. Since then, Craig McRae has kept Howe ahead of the ball, with his marking abilities proving potent inside forward 50. Whilst Howe will return to the backline this week as Nathan Murphy is out injured, McRae will be pleased to know that he can throw Howe forward depending on the opposition and players available. The former Demons looms as a wildcard player for September and knows how to perform in the big moments.
What to expect: Securing a home final at the Gabba was crucial to Brisbane's premiership hopes, as a win at their Gabba Fortress would also ensure a home preliminary final. The Lions have won their last four games in a row and head into the finals series in strong form.
Strengths: There are stars everywhere in this line up, all with an abundance of finals experience. While Will Ashcroft may be out injured, the addition of Josh Dunkley to their midfield makes them even stronger around the ball, combining with the likes of Lachie Neale, Hugh McCluggage and Dayne Zorko. Going forward, they have goal sneak Charlie Cameron who's forward pressure is virtually unstoppable, whilst Joe Daniher has not been held goalless since Round 20.
Weaknesses: Port Adelaide and Brisbane last played each other in Round 1, when the Power had an astounding 54 point win over Brisbane. Brisbane were well beaten going forward and will have to watch out again, with 40 inside 50s for the match at 37.5 percent efficiency, whilst the Power had 65 inside 50s at 60 percent efficiency.
Star player: Lachie Neale
Lachie Neale's season has been somewhat overlooked, largely due to the success of others around him. However, the superstar, once again, looms as a Brownlow contender and his fine form from this season looks set to continue into finals, particularly with Brisbane cementing a home qualifying final. Neale had an impressive finals series in 2022, collecting 39 disposals against Richmond and a further 27 against Melbourne in back-to-back wins.
Breakout player: Keidean Coleman
After a breakout season in 2022, Coleman has continued to consistently perform for Brisbane and looms as a critical player come September. Against Collingwood in Round 23, Coleman had 21 disposals, seven marks, and a goal to be one of Brisbane's best. Produces strong efforts week in, week out and no doubt finals will be the same.
What to expect: Port Adelaide thumped Brisbane in Round 1 by 54 points, albeit on their own turf, and will have the method on what it takes to beat them. The Power won't be scared about travelling to the Gabba, having come close to beating the Lions there last year. The big question mark will be surrounding whether or not Charlie Dixon plays, whilst they'll be bolstered by Zak Butters' strong end to the home and away season.
Strengths: The likes of Brownlow contender Butters, recruit Jason Horne-Francis and Connor Rozee have all been stars for Port Adelaide this season and heavily contributed to the Power's ability to turn their season around. Horne-Francis has demonstrated why he was the No.1 Draft Pick in 2021, kicking 15 goals for the year and finding himself amongst the Power's best players on multiple occasions.
Weaknesses: The Power's rucking looms as an issue as they take on Brisbane, with Scott Lycett a test to play his first game since Round 19. It'll be a challenge either way, with Oscar McInerney in strong form. Against Collingwood's Darcy Cameron, 'The Big O' had 16 disposals, 41 hitouts and two shots on goal to be one of Brisbane's best players. If Lycett doesn't return, Jeremy Finlayson may find himself balancing key forward and rucking duties.
Star player: Zak Butters
Butters will undeniably bring the X factor for Port Adelaide this finals series, having won the Most Courageous Player and AFLCA Champion of the Year Awards on Wednesday. With a tough challenge at the Gabba in week one against the Brisbane Lions' midfield, Butters looms as the difference against players like Josh Dunkley, Lachie Neale and Dayne Zorko.
Breakout player: Jeremy Finlayson
Finlayson's 2023 season has been reminiscent of his 2019 season at GWS, having kicked 38 goals and providing another genuine target up forward for Port Adelaide. With Charlie Dixon under an injury cloud for week one, and having only played 13 games for the season, Finlayson could prove to be the number one forward at the Gabba up against the likes of Harris Andrews.
What to expect: Melbourne enter the finals series in impeccable form, having won seven of their last eight games and their only loss coming in controversial circumstances to Carlton by four points. They're boosted by the fact they play Collingwood at the MCG and won't have to leave their home deck for at least the first two weeks of finals. In what could be a premiership defining game, Melbourne will aim to replicate the style of footy they played on the King's Birthday when they shut down Collingwood and beat them by four points. However, they'll have to kick accurately in what looms as a potential shootout-style game. Lose on Thursday night and the Demons will find themselves at the Gabba or Adelaide Oval in a preliminary final, however, they have come close to winning at both venues this year.
Strengths: Melbourne's experience in finals will stack up against less experienced sides. The Redlegs will also enter September in form, buoyed by a strong performance against Sydney last weekend, whilst their generals down back in Steven May and Jake Lever will also be critical to stopping Collingwood's forwards.
Weaknesses: Melbourne's goal kicking accuracy has been one of their biggest flaws this season and one of their biggest stars in Christian Petracca has cost them the most. At times when the game has been on the line, Melbourne has failed to kick straight. Against GWS, they kicked 5.15, with Petracca kicking 0.4, whilst they nearly lost to Collingwood in the dying stages of the game when they kicked 8.18.
Star player: Max Gawn
Max Gawn would have considered himself unlucky to miss the extended All-Australian squad, having had yet another impressive season. Whilst he has been a little quieter over the last month, Gawn has been one of Melbourne's best in their biggest games, particularly against Brisbane in Round 18. The skipper's ruck work could prove to be the difference, whilst his marking ability will also prove to be important. Gawn had a very even ruck battle against Darcy Cameron last time the pair faced off, but will look to take dominance this time particularly with his finals experience.
Breakout player: Jacob Van Rooyen
With the news that Jake Melksham will miss Melbourne's premiership tilt after tearing his ACL and that Harrison Petty will also miss the remainder of the season, Jacob Van Rooyen looms as a pivotal figure for Melbourne. The second year player has only gone goalless twice this season in what is huge nod to his work rate since he debuted in Round 3. Van Rooyen has proven that he can be the key target up forward when needed, having kicked three goals against Hawthorn in Round 23. The Western Australian looms as one of Melbourne's most important players in his first finals campaign.
What to expect: Carlton are riding belief heading into their first finals series since 2003, having beaten Collingwood, Port Adelaide and Melbourne in an incredible second half of the season. Despite losing to GWS last weekend, the Blues will have the home ground advantage over the Swans on Friday night and will have the return of captain Patrick Cripps to welcome.
Strengths: Carlton's forward line, specifically twin towers Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow, will create headaches for teams in September. Having played the majority of fellow finalists since the bye without McKay, Curnow proved enough of a problem and inspired a nine-game winning streak. With McKay back in the team, no doubt many teams at training will be trying to think of a way to combat the pair, a difficult feat regardless of which team it is.
Weaknesses: Hardly any of Carlton's side have played in finals, whilst the Swans are an experienced outfit and will have learnt their mistakes from last year's grand final. The MCG won't hold any fears for Sydney as they typically play well away from home. Carlton will have to get on the front foot early and avoid letting any lead extend by too much.
Star player: Charlie Curnow
Coleman Medallist Charlie Curnow will be a headache for opposition defenders, particularly for the undersized Swans. Whilst he wasn't the most accurate the last time the two teams played, Sydney still allowed Curnow four shots on goal in what could've been a very different scoreline had he capitalised on his opportunities. When the two teams played last season, Curnow managed six goals for the game in an effort he will be looking to replicate, ensuring Carlton moves into September's second week.
Breakout player: Nic Newman
Newman has been one of Carlton's most consistent performers this season and does not get as much credit as he probably deserves. Newman has averaged 23.1 disposals, 7.8 marks and 3.6 tackles for the year to rank as above average and elite respectively, whilst his performances between Round 20-23 saw him score at least 123 AFL Fantasy points on all five occasions. Newman looms as a real game changer for Carlton this finals series, particularly against his old side.
What to expect: Not many would've expected St Kilda to maintain their place in the eight, let alone secure a home final, but they did it under 'Ross the Boss'. St Kilda have only played at the MCG three times this season, so it will be unfamiliar territory for them hosting a final. Seb Ross, Max King and Dougal Howard all loom as inclusions against GWS, as the Saints continue to overcome the injury crisis which ravaged them earlier in the season. Despite closing their season with a loss to the Lions, St Kilda will go in quite evenly matched with the Giants.
Strengths: Their defensive game style is what has cemented the Saints a position in the finals. Playing typically to his style, Lyon has turned around what was a team in dire straits and ensuring everyone plays their roles and plays to their full potential. In doing so, St Kilda were undefeated for the first four rounds of the AFL season and narrowly lost to Collingwood, bouncing back the next week with a 22-point win over Carlton. They haven't let injuries get in their way and have got the job done this year.
Weaknesses: St Kilda can still be inconsistent. One week they play their best footy, the next they narrowly scrape past a bottom of the ladder team. It has been shown this season that when the opposition catches St Kilda off guard, they lose, as proven by an erratic patch in the middle of the year where they lost four of five games and only snapped the streak by eight points over North Melbourne. They can't afford to be caught sleeping against the Giants.
Star player: Rowan Marshall
Rowan Marshall gave All-Australian selectors something to think about when picking their ruckman for the team, having played his way into the elite ruckmen bracket this season. Marshall ranks elite for disposals, contested possessions and clearances this season, whilst his hitout win percentage sits at 41.1 percent - higher than All-Australian ruck Tim English. Marshall will have the edge over Kieren Briggs next weekend in his quest to launch the Saints into a semi final.
Breakout player: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
In only his second season of AFL, Wanganeen-Milera looms as a genuine player who can break the game open. A strong ball user, the South Australian averages 23.5 disposals a game to rank as elite, whilst his dash off of half-back has proved particularly valuable to St Kilda. One of the Saints' best young talents who will be seeking to continue his strong season during his first finals series.
What to expect: After cementing their finals spot with a backs against the wall win against Carlton last weekend, GWS and their small, yet loyal, fanbase will be primed for a big game against St Kilda after an impressive win over Carlton showed just what they are capable of.
Strength and weakness: Their unpredictability proves as both a weakness and a strength. It seems you never know just what to expect with GWS. Adam Kingsley turned around what was looking to be a dire season for GWS, losing five of their first eight games including to bottom of the ladder West Coast and threatened to keep them out of the finals. However, wins against Geelong at GMHBA, Melbourne in Alice Springs and the Western Bulldogs in Ballarat prove that GWS are capable of beating anyone, anywhere.
Star player: Toby Greene
Toby Greene has had a big journey throughout his AFL career, but Wednesday night's appointment as All-Australian captain is an acknowledgment of his work ethic and star power, proving to everyone that he is a superstar of the game despite being at one of the smallest clubs. Greene can have a huge September, provided GWS win week one, and is one of the most important players for any club. A captain's performance will be needed each week with GWS more than likely going into each game the underdog but don't discount Greene propelling his team deep into the finals.
Breakout player: Jake Riccardi
The out-of-contract forward has already been receiving rival interests, and a big game would propel that interest even more. Riccardi has enjoyed a breakout season this year, kicking 30.15 and appearing in every game since Round 10. Even more impressively, Riccardi has scored goals in every game since Round 19 including a four-goal haul against Port Adelaide in Round 22, one of his best games for the season. Momentum is currently on his side, heading into the finals series with a three-goal bag against Carlton.
What to expect: Sydney are seasoned September specialists and despite their ladder position, don't underestimate what they can do. Looking to avenge their horror grand final loss, the MCG will hold no fears for them against Carlton, with Sydney a team who typically travels well - five of Sydney's last eight games were played away from home, and they won every one of them. Against Carlton's September inexperience, the Swans will stack up well, yet face a big challenge for their undersized defence in taking down twin towers Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay.
Strengths: Life after Buddy has proven to work well for the Swans, who have shared the ball around up forward. The Swans forward line has operated more effectively, scoring more points for, as well as generating more scores per inside 50. Rather than having Buddy as the one target inside their forward 50, the Swans have looked for other options, making it more difficult for opposition defenders to know who they're going to kick to. Hayden McLean, Joel Amartey, Tom Papley, Isaac Heeney, Logan McDonald and Will Hayward have all been a big part of the swift transition since Buddy's retirement, with goals set to come from all avenues.
Weaknesses: Their defence looms as the factor which would de rail their campaign against Carlton. With Paddy McCartin retiring due to his ongoing concussion issues, the undersized Dane Rampe will have his hands full trying to contain both Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow. The pair were everywhere last time they played Sydney, but the Swans were lucky that both of their were kicking inaccurately on that occasion.
Star player: Errol Gulden
Whilst he is only 21 years of age, Errol Gulden is the Swans' most important player heading into finals. Gulden heads into finals in scintillating form, having accumulated 42 disposals and two goals last week with his performances from Round 14-24 showing the game that he is capable of emerging as one of the best players in the league. The young gun had a quiet finals series last season and was barely seen on grand final day but will be better prepared for this year's series.
Breakout player: Isaac Heeney
Not necessarily a breakout player, but more of an underrated player. Heeney's work rate up forward to propel the Swans' since Buddy's resigned has gone well under the radar and he looms as a big player next weekend, particularly as he seeks to rectify last year's grand final performance which saw him go missing after what was such a big year. Heeney has kicked 20 goals since he moved forward, including an important bag of three against Adelaide in Round 23.