Approaching the end of his seventh season as senior coach of Brisbane, Chris Fagan and his Lions are once again in the hunt for a top-two spot and a chance at two home finals in September, with a break in between.
Twice in Fagan's tenure have the Lions earned a second-place spot at season's end, and twice they haven't capitalised in the finals; bowing out to Dustin Martin and the Tigers in week one of 2019 and Chris Scott's Cats in the penultimate weekend of the 2020 season.
The public theory has always been that an interstate contender such as Brisbane must earn a home qualifier in order to avoid any major travel and crowd challenges en route to a Grand Final berth.
Indeed, this season presents a golden opportunity to secure a top-two spot and two favourable finals at their home fortress, the Gabba, before potentially featuring in the ultimate battle, where we know anything can happen.
The Eagles did it perfectly in 2018 when their home crowd willed them over the line against Collingwood in Perth before infecting the psyche of a young Melbourne side punching above its weight in the penultimate match.
Their iconic four-point win over the Magpies to secure the flag set the most recent precedent for that exact premiership formula, and Brisbane of '23 is as well-placed as any interstate side to achieve the same feat.
However, the Lions' form slump during the closing stretch of this season thus far has been noteworthy and has gone relatively unexamined.
Since their obliteration of West Cost in Round 17, they are yet to put together a convincing performance or statement victory against a true contender.
Their 105-104 loss to Melbourne may have ended the MCG 'hoo-doo' discussion but raised glaring questions over their end-of-game execution.
Their 11-point defeat of Geelong came in a 64-point performance at the Gabba, where a typical score reaches double that.
A 41-point loss to Gold Coast is concerning on any day, and their three-point defeat of Fremantle on the weekend came in yet another poor performance, as Fagan conceded post-match.
"We didn't play our best footy. It looked like we were battling ourselves, we were fumbling," Fagan said during his post-match presser.
"We didn't play great and we had a lot of players down, but we found a way to win on the road, which is pleasing," he added.
The win does keep the Lions tied for second-spot, however, making it a good result in the eyes of Brisbane stakeholders.
He credited the will of the playing group and the fourth-quarter performances of midfielders Lachie Neale and Josh Dunkley in leading the way to victory, as well as highlighting the positives of winning a close game such as on Sunday evening.
"There was tremendous determination amongst the group to win today," Fagan continued.
"I think winning when you don't play well is good.
"Hopefully we get a lot of confidence from it, in a strange sort of way."
A Round 22 clash against the Crows at the Gabba gives Brisbane the opportunity to build on that confidence and put together a big score against an undermanned defence ravaged by injury.
They will hope to have running defender Keidean Coleman and ruckman Oscar McInerney return this weekend, though the status of both remains uncertain.
A dominant performance would halt the scrutiny that would be coming thick and fast if they were to lose or just scrape over the line.
It would also provide them a much-needed percentage boost over Melbourne, which sits 0.9% ahead in second place.
Further, it may be their final chance to put on the kind of dominant display we have seen from them this season, with Collingwood and St Kilda, two sides known for being particularly difficult to score against, representing the Lions' final home and away opponents.
It is up to the eye of the beholder to decide whether Fagan's fellows are trending toward a flag or finals exit, but this Round 22 clash may prove telling when the final ladder is decided.
