In an AFLW season heavily impacted by COVID, extreme weather and various other surprises, we are bearing down on finals with the home and away season coming to an end this weekend.
Let’s look at where the contenders are at, who can make finals and what happened last round that led us here …
In the biggest win and highest score in AFLW history, flag hopefuls Melbourne put a big hit on fellow contender Fremantle’s confidence. The loss saw Fremantle tumble down to fifth on the ladder with a huge percentage drop, the dominant display from the Demons putting all the other teams on alert.
The 107-19 loss may seem a little less worrying for Fremantle when you factor in a career-best performance from Daisy Pearce, and knowing they were missing five of their top 10 players in Kiara Bowers, Ebony Antonio, Janelle Cuthbertson, Gabby O’Sullivan and Emma O’Driscoll - who has become an important defender for the Dockers this season.
The Crows left the door ajar for the Western Bulldogs by narrowly defeating Collingwood on Sunday afternoon. It was a gallant effort by the injury-ridden Pies as they looked to cement their place in the finals. Adelaide, arguably the flag favourites, have been great all year but are clearly a much better side with Erin Philips, who is back from a minor knee injury and an important inclusion heading into finals.
It may take a bit to knock the Pies out in the final round, with the Bulldogs taking on my Lions as they look to sneak into the finals.
Mathematically, the Blues are a chance to make finals but the ‘footy gods’ would have to work some serious magic for that to happen - the Blues would have beat the Demons by an astronomical number, while the Pies would need to lose against Richmond and take a big percentage hit.
North Melbourne suffered their second straight loss, as Brisbane made a big statement coming into finals. The Kangaroos need to find more consistent avenues to goal - Jasmine Garner seems to have the weight of the world on her shoulders, kicking five of their last 10 goals across three rounds. If they’re to make an impact in finals, they need more goal-kickers.
With all that in mind, I don’t see a change in the current ladder coming after the final round. Potentially the only thing I could see happening is Fremantle jumping back up into fourth over the Kangaroos, which could be important in the context of where the final between them may be played.
All other teams are unable to make finals, which means that this weekend will be their last outing of the 2022 season.
With the top two sides getting a well-deserved week off, the first round of finals will play out like this:
3rd vs. 6th
4th vs. 5th
My tips for the final round:
Geelong (vs. GWS)
Collingwood (vs. Richmond)
North Melbourne (vs. West Coast)
Melbourne (vs. Carlton)
Adelaide (vs. St Kilda)
Brisbane (vs. Western Bulldogs)
Fremantle (vs. Gold Coast)
See you again next week for finals!