Best and worst-case scenarios for all 13 AFLW finals contenders and the likely week one finals matchups

A total of 13 clubs can book themselves a finals spot this weekend. Here’s how it could all unfold👇

STAFF WRITER | November 1, 2023 - 12:44pm

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The AFLW has never been so close and this weekend is going to be filled with drama.

The finals race will go down to the final games on Sunday with teams between eighth and 13th all playing each other.

The AFLW couldn't have asked for a better race to finals than what is on offer on the weekend. Without a doubt, it will be a dramatic end to the weekend.

Here's the state of play for the top 13 and what a Round 10 win or loss might mean.

1. Melbourne

Percentage: 260.4%
Round 10 opponent: Brisbane (A)

Win: Finish 1st

Lose: Finish 2nd if Adelaide Win, or 1st if Adelaide Loss

2. Adelaide

Percentage: 196.3%
Round 10 opponent: West Coast (A)

Win: Finish 1st if Brisbane wins, or Melbourne wins only but only if they win by an AFLW record margin. Otherwise, they finish 2nd.

Lose: Finish 2nd

3. North Melbourne

Percentage: 207.4%
Round 10 opponent: Western Bulldogs (A)

Win: Finish 3rd

Lose: Finish 4th if Brisbane lose, 5th if Brisbane win

4. Brisbane

Percentage: 145.3%
Round 10 opponent: Melbourne (H)

Win: Finish 3rd if North Melbourne lose, 4th if North Melbourne win

Lose: Finish 5th if Geelong win and they catch up on percentage, or 6th if Geelong lose or stays behind on percentage

5. Essendon

Percentage: 112.4%
Round 10 opponent: Gold Coast (A)

Win: They can finish 3rd if both North Melbourne and Brisbane lose, 4th if one of them wins, and 5th if both win.

Lose: Finish 6th if Geelong lose and Sydney, St Kilda, or Collingwood also lose, or stay behind on percentage. They will finish 7th if only one of those teams wins or overtakes them on percentage, and 8th if two of them win or overtake them on percentage. Missing the finals is possible if three or four of them win or overtake them on percentage.

6. Gold Coast

Percentage: 115.6%
Round 10 opponent: Essendon (H)

Win: Finish 3rd if North Melbourne and Brisbane lose, 4th if one wins, 5th if both win

Lose: Will finish 6th if Geelong, Sydney, St Kilda, and Collingwood all lose, 7th if one of them wins, and 8th if two of them win. Missing the finals is possible if three or four of them win.

7. Geelong

Percentage: 130.5%
Round 10 opponent: Hawthorn (H)

Win: Finish 5th if Brisbane lose by a substantial margin or 6th if Brisbane lose by a small margin or win.

Lose: Finish 7th if Carlton, Richmond, and Fremantle all win. They will finish 8th if two of those teams win. Missing the finals is possible if only one or none of those teams win.

8. Sydney

Percentage: 101.9%
Round 10 opponent: Fremantle (A)

Win: Finish as high as 6th if Geelong lose and Essendon lose and fall behind them on percentage. They can also finish 7th if one of those outcomes happens and as high as 8th if neither happens. Missing the finals is possible if St Kilda or Collingwood win by a significant margin.

Lose: Finish 8th if St Kilda and Collingwood lose and the Swans maintain their percentage lead over both. Missing the finals is possible if St Kilda or Collingwood wins or if Carlton, Richmond, or Fremantle wins by a large margin.

9. St Kilda

Percentage: 97.1%
Round 10 opponent: Carlton (A)

Win: Finish as high as 6th if Geelong lose and Essendon lose and fall behind them on percentage. They can also finish 7th if one of those outcomes happens and as high as 8th if neither happens. Missing the finals is possible if Sydney wins and stays ahead on percentage and/or Collingwood wins by a significant margin.

Lose: Finish 8th if Sydney lose by three or more goals, Collingwood lose and Carlton, Fremantle and Richmond don't catch them on percentage. Otherwise, will miss the finals.

10. Collingwood

Percentage: 95.0%
Round 10 opponent: Richmond (H)

Win: Finish as high as 6th if Geelong lose and Essendon lose and they fall behind on percentage. They can also finish 7th if one of those outcomes happens and as high as 8th if neither happens. Missing the finals is possible if Sydney and/or St Kilda win and stay ahead on percentage.

Lose: Finish 8th if it's a close margin, provided Carlton beat St Kilda and Fremantle beat Sydney with specific scorelines that place all four teams behind Collingwood on percentage. Otherwise, they will miss the finals.