With Port Adelaide off to an 0-5 start to the season, there has been much speculation about the future of Ken Hinkley.
Speaking to the media after their brave three-point loss at the hands of Carlton, the Power coach told media: "My history tells me that you can lose five in a row and still make finals."
In the press conference, he pointed to his first year in charge - 2013 - where the Power lost five in a row before clinching a finals spot.
We decided to crunch the numbers to see what chance a side that loses five games in a has of making finals.
From 2000 onwards, there have been 104 teams that have lost five games in a row at any point in the season.
Of these 104 teams, just seven ended up featuring in September. This means that, since 2000, the percentage chance of making finals for sides that lose five in a row at any time in the year is just 6.7%.
Sydney - 2017 (6th)
Port Adelaide - 2013 (7th)
Essendon - 2011 (8th)
Hawthorn - 2010 (7th)
Adelaide - 2008 (5th)
Melbourne - 2005 (7th)
Sydney - 2001 (7th)
It turns out Hinkley is right - it is possible to lose five games in a row and still make finals.
However, it appears to be very unlikely and it makes sneaking into the top four close to impossible.
None of these 104 teams made it to a grand final, or even appeared to be a genuine premiership chance at any point in time.
The Swans 2017 side appears to be the most equivalent to the 2022 Power.
Not only did they start off the season 0-5, but their coach, John Longmire, had been in charge for a lengthy stint just like Hinkley.
Longmire was in his seventh year as coach while Hinkley is in his tenth.
Interestingly, Sydney's coach in 2001, Rodney Eade, Melbourne's 2005 coach, Neale Daniher, Adelaide's 2008 coach, Neil Craig, and Hawthorn's 2010 coach, Alastair Clarkson, had all been at their respective clubs for over four years.
Hence, all these coaches appeared to be settled at the club - just as Hinkley is.
Meanwhile, the other two coaches, James Hird (Essendon 2011) and Hinkley himself in 2013, were both first-year coaches who ended up having long careers in charge.
Interestingly, none of these coaches were sacked at the end of the season, or during the next season, with the exception of Eade who resigned in Round 12 the following year after a poor loss at the hands of the Cats.
Just as notably, the 2005 Demons under Daniher ended up losing seven in a row and still finished in the top eight.
None of these coaches had been as successful the year before as Hinkley, whose side played in - and lost - two home preliminary finals in a row.
However, while five of the seven coaches had extensive stints at the club, none of them had a stay as long as Hinkley's.
Though Hinkley is currently contracted until the end of 2023, it by no means makes his job secure.
Many are suggesting the Power need to make finals in order for Hinkley to keep his spot as senior coach, that the Power are in their prime and should be among the premiership contenders.
With a must-win game at home against the lowly Eagles at home this weekend, a loss would raise further questions over Hinkley's future at the club.
However, a win could revive his side, potentially lighting a fire within them to go all the way to the top eight in 2022.
