The AFL is staring down a second-straight finals series away from the home of football.
With Melbourne still in lockdown for the foreseeable future, it looks likely that only interstate can boast crowds deserving of the finals.
No doubt this is a grim prospectย for Victorians.
Controversially, it appears the AFL are ruling out playing any final in front of an empty stadium.
This is a clear setback for several teams at the top of the ladder.
Succeeding in the gruelling home-and-away season is incentivised by a home-ground advantage in September. But with the finals likely to be shipped outside of Victoria, that advantage has diminished.
Melbourne fans in particular have every right to feel hard done by. It's been 57 years since last winning a minor premiership and now, tragically, it's possible they won't even get a home final.
Many have argued that in the AFL's effort to chase a penny, the integrity of the game has been compromised.
But in reality, nothing has really changed this year.
You only have to ask Chris Scott and Geelong, the AFL have always prioritised bigger crowds over the home-crowd advantage. A multi-year campaign from the Cats has proved fruitless to drag a final to Kardinia Park.
As for interstate teams, the Grand Final is always away from home, regardless of ladder position. It took a global pandemic to drag the big game away from Australia's largest stadium.
And sadly the AFL is right, chasing crowds in the finals is simply a no-brainer.
If we've learnt anything from football in the COVIS era, it's that crowds come before almost everything else.
Last Sunday's Derby between Fremantle and West Coast served as a wake-up call for the AFL community. A heaving stadium helps footy fans forget what a nightmare the last two seasons have been.
The truth is that integrity isn't what keeps this game alive; it's atmosphere.
Even the most diehard Demons supporters would prefer to watch their side win at a packed Optus Stadium over their beloved, but empty, MCG.
No supporter for that matter wants to see their team win at an empty ground because it just isn't the same.
Truth be told, crowded stadiums might be all that's standing in the way of a dreadedย "asterisk season".
The deafening roar that follows the final siren is so synonymous that a final without it would feel incomplete.
For footy-goers, the sound of a heaving crowd is so deeply embedded that it cannot be substituted.
"Why bother finishing first on the ladder?"
Firstly, this advantage is greatly exaggerated, especially since the introduction of the pre-finals bye.
You have to go back to Hawthorn in 2013 to find the last time a team won a Grand Final after taking out the minor premiership.
In fact, in the last decade, teams have won the flag from third on the ladder more than from first and second combined. Clearly, the reward of finishing 'top-two' is overstated.
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The finals have always been a great equaliser.
In the regular season it can be hard to generate excitement away from home. But in the finals, the incentive is obvious and the crowd plays less of a part.
Five out of the last six premierships have been won by teams who won interstate during their finals series.
Interestingly, it has been the pre-finals bye which has traditionally had far more of an impact on teams. Since it's introduction in 2016, winning a qualifying final means playing just one game in nearly a month of action.
The AFL has now indicated this year's pre-finals bye will be scrapped, and will likely be slotted into the third week of the finals series instead. This presents a far bigger obstacle for the top-four who would face back-to-back weeks off if victorious in the first round.
The reality of AFL is that the finals have never been fair anyway. Indeed for many supporters, a second finals series outside Melbourne presents a welcome shift away from the traditional Victorian advantage.
With the difficulties and disruptions the game has had this year, a good spectacle might be about all we can hope for.
Embed from Getty ImagesEarlier this season, West Australian footy-fans flocked to the Dreamtime game to showcase Optus Stadium's credentials. The 55,000 strong crowd boasted Perth's desire to house the big dance, regardless of the teams involved.
With both West Coast and Fremantle now unlikely to play a part in September, a Grand Final in Perth would offer a fair outcome for all sides. In fact, it might just be as fair as it's ever been.
