Collingwood clinch ANOTHER minor premiership, Saints suffer worrying fall: AFL ladder predictor

The bye rounds have passed and AFL fans can now turn their undivided attention to the remaining 81 matches for the 2023 season, with September now in sight.

Premiership contenders have well and truly emerged across the opening rounds of the year, with Collingwood holding onto the top spot on the ladder ahead of Port Adelaide, with percentage all that separates the two clubs.

While the summit gives us no exact indication of who will take out the minor premiership, the race to shape the top eight is no clearer.

Currently, 10 premiership points separated the fifth-placed St Kilda and the 15th-placed Carlton, while five clubs are within two points of each other between eighth and 12th.

Both the Magpies and Power have managed to break away from the rest of the competition to sit two wins ahead of the third-placed Brisbane, with Melbourne and St Kilda rounding out the top five.

The Saints have managed eight wins from their 14 matches under returned coach Ross Lyon, with Victorian rivals Essendon and the Western Bulldogs level on premiership points with St Kilda.

Three defeats in five games see the Crows susceptible to falling out of the top eight as early as this weekend, with Geelong, Gold Coast, Fremantle and Geelong all in reaching distance.

The bottom three clubs aren't seen as chances for a top eight berth, with cellar dwellers West Coast having their prospects of attaining Pick 1 significantly strengthened with a 171-point defeat to Sydney on Saturday.

Both Hawthorn and North Melbourne have managed to distance themselves from the Eagles, recording four and two wins for the year respectively, while West Coast's percentage sits at 47.3% - 22.3% lower than that of the Kangaroos.

With nine rounds of action left to play, we've worked through the remainder of the fixture to see how the season might just pan out, presenting our final ladder order from 1-18.

Here's what we came to at the end of the home and away season:

1st. Collingwood 

Current Record: 12-2
Run Home: GCS (A), WB (A), FREO (H), PORT (A), CARL (H), HAW (A), GEEL (H), BRIS (H), ESS (A)
Predicted Record: 20-3
Estimated Percentage: 128.0%

Our prediction sees Collingwood lose just one more game for the season - that being their Round 23 clash with Brisbane at Marvel Stadium. Besides that fixture, the Pies notch up crucial wins over Port Adelaide, Geelong and close rivals Carlton and Essendon to claim the minor premiership for their 20th minor premiership.

2nd. Port Adelaide

Current Record: 12-2
Run Home: ESS (A), GCS (H), CARL (A), COLL (H), ADEL (A), GEEL (A), GWS (H), FREO (A), RICH (H)
Predicted Record: 19-4
Estimated Percentage: 120.4%

The Power hold onto second place on the ladder come the cessation of the home and away season, with losses to Collingwood and Adelaide in successive weeks to see them lose touch with the Magpies at the summit.

3rd. Melbourne

Current Record: 9-5
Run Home: GWS (H), STK (A), BRIS (H), ADEL (H), RICH (A), NM (A), CARL (A), HAW (H), SYD (A)
Predicted Record: 18-5
Estimated Percentage: 127.0%

Melbourne manage to finish on the podium to face Port Adelaide in week one of the finals series thanks to a healthier percentage than fellow contenders Brisbane. A Round 18 clash between the Demons and Lions looms as a deciding fixture for the shape of the top four, with Melbourne getting the chocolates in our prediction.

4th. Brisbane

Current Record: 10-4
Run Home: RICH (H), WCE (H), MELB (A), GEEL (H), GCS (A), FREO (A), ADEL (H), COLL (A), STK (H)
Predicted Record: 18-5
Estimated Percentage: 123.8%

The Lions remain right in the hunt for a top four berth thanks to wins over Geelong, Adelaide and Collingwood to end another impressive season under Chris Fagan. That run will see them finish in fourth and face the Magpies away from home in the opening weekend of September.

5th. Adelaide

Current Record: 7-7
Run Home: NM (H), ESS (A), GWS (H), MELB (A), PORT (H), GCS (H), BRIS (A), SYD (H), WCE (A)
Predicted Record: 14-9
Estimated Percentage: 114.2%

The Crows' rise to flag contention continues through the back end of the season thanks to a strong spree of matches, claiming the scalps of North Melbourne, Essendon, GWS, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast, Sydney and West Coast to end the year with 14 wins.

6th. Geelong

Current Record: 7-7
Run Home: SYD (A), NM (H), ESS (H), BRIS (A), FREO (H), PORT (H), COLL (A), STK (A), WB (H)
Predicted Record: 13-10
Estimated Percentage: 113.3%

The Cats will bank on their suite of matches at Kardinia Park to secure a spot in the top six and keep their title defence alive, with losses to Brisbane, Collingwood and Port Adelaide keeping them outside of the top five.

7th. Essendon

Current Record: 8-6
Run Home: PORT (H), ADEL (H), GEEL (A), WB (H), SYD (H), WCE (H), NM (A), GWS (A), COLL (H)
Predicted Record: 13-10
Estimated Percentage: 105.4%

The Bombers are level with Geelong on premiership points but have seen their percentage drop a touch to sit in seventh. After a three-game losing run through Rounds 16-18, they'll notch up wins over five straight weekends to cement their place in the top eight.

8th. Western Bulldogs

Current Record: 8-6
Run Home: FREO (H), COLL (H), SYD (A), ESS (A), GWS (H), RICH (H), HAW (A), WCE (H), GEEL (A)
Predicted Record: 12-11
Estimated Percentage: 104.2%

The Dogs lock in a finals spot despite going 4-5 through the next nine rounds, with a healthier percentage over Fremantle seeing them land a September chance. The Dogs are in for a crucial first month, opening with a clash at home against the Dockers.

9th. Fremantle

Current Record: 7-7
Run Home: WB (A), CARL (H), COLL (A), SYD (H), GEEL (A), BRIS (H), WCE (A), PORT (H), HAW (A)
Predicted Record: 12-11
Estimated Percentage: 96.4%

Fremantle manage to record five wins from the last nine rounds to end their season in the top half of the competition, but a low percentage sees them placed outside the finals frame. A Round 16 clash with the Bulldogs and a season-ending matchup with Geelong will be pivotal in their premiership push.

10th. Richmond

Current Record: 6-1-7
Run Home: BRIS (A), SYD (H), WCE (A), HAW (H), MELB (H), WB (A), STK (A), NM (H), PORT (A)
Predicted Record: 11-1-11
Estimated Percentage: 104.3%

The Tigers are tipped to end 2023 on an even split, managing as many wins as losses along with their sole draw from Round 1 against Carlton. Remaining games against Brisbane, Melbourne, the Western Bulldogs, St Kilda and Port Adelaide are set to shape their season.

11th. St Kilda

Current Record: 8-6
Run Home: WCE (A), MELB (H), GCS (A), NM (H), HAW (A), CARL (H), RICH (H), GEEL (H), BRIS (A)
Predicted Record: 11-12
Estimated Percentage: 106.0%

The Saints are the big sliders in our ladder prediction, falling from fifth to 11th due to a remaining record of three wins and six losses. Ross Lyon's side has a tough journey to reach September, where we've predicted defeats to Melbourne, Gold Coast, Carlton, Richmond, Geelong and Brisbane.

12th. Carlton

Current Record: 5-1-8
Run Home: HAW (A), FREO (A), PORT (A), WCE (H), COLL (A), STK (A), MELB (H), GCS (A), GWS (H)
Predicted Record: 10-1-12
Estimated Percentage: 102%

The Blues' struggles through the season so far will keep them out of reach for a return to the top eight, earning a return of five wins from their last nine games. The Blues will need to be near perfect to secure a spot for September, and matches against Port Adelaide, Collingwood and Melbourne will test them most.

13th. Gold Coast

Current Record: 7-7
Run Home: COLL (H), PORT (A), STK (H), GWS (A), BRIS (H), ADEL (A), SYD (A), CARL (H), NM (A)
Predicted Record: 10-13
Estimated Percentage: 95.8%

The Suns have shown promise throughout the opening 15 rounds but are expected to stumble across the last nine rounds - a trend their fans have become familiar with. We have the Suns managing just three wins from their last nine games, an outcome that would surely place immense pressure on Stuart Dew.

14th. Sydney

Current Record: 6-8
Run Home: GEEL (H), RICH (A), WB (H), FREO (A), ESS (A), GWS (A), GCS (H), ADEL (A), MELB (H)
Predicted Record: 9-14
Estimated Percentage: 106.4%

The Swans are another side that has struggled to find consistent form so far this year, and that is expected to continue through to the end of the home and away season to see them land at 14th on the ladder. A tough run home has them facing eight clubs currently above them on the ladder.

15th. GWS

Current Record: 6-8
Run Home: MELB (A), HAW (H), ADEL (A), GCS (H), WB (A), SYD (H), PORT (A), ESS (H), CARL (A)
Predicted Record: 7-16
Estimated Percentage: 91.5%

The Giants have often been stuck in between the clubs contending for finals and the bottom three, and that's where they'll likely end up after 24 rounds. A difficult run home sees them secure just one more win for the year.

16th. Hawthorn

Current Record: 4-10
Run Home: CARL (H), GWS (A), NM (A), RICH (A), STK (H), COLL (H), WB (H), MELB (A), FREO (H)
Predicted Record: 5-18
Estimated Percentage: 76.9%

The Hawks will inch closer to escaping the bottom three but won't be able to break through, with their Round 18 clash with North Melbourne being their next and only win for the rest of 2023.

17th. North Melbourne

Current Record: 2-12
Run Home: ADEL (A), GEEL (A), HAW (H), STK (A), WCE (A), MELB (H), ESS (H), RICH (A), GCS (H)
Predicted Record: 3-20
Estimated Percentage: 72.2%

The Roos will be hoping to cause an upset in the final nine rounds to produce more than just one win, however we're not seeing that to be the case. A Round 20 clash with West Coast - the only club below them - is one to circle on the calendar.

18th. West Coast

Current Record: 1-13
Run Home: STK (H), BRIS (A), RICH (H), CARL (A), NM (H), ESS (A), FREO (H), WB (A), ADEL (H)
Predicted Record: 1-22
Estimated Percentage: 53.4%

The Eagles' woes will only continue through the final nine rounds to see them become the latest club to end a season with just one win to their name. Their run home isn't an easy one, and it'll see them secure 18th place and Pick 1 for the 2023 AFL Draft.

Finals

1st Qualifying Final: Collingwood (1st) vs Brisbane (4th)

2nd Qualifying Final: Port Adelaide (2nd) vs Melbourne (3rd)

1st Elimination Final: Adelaide (5th) vs Western Bulldogs (8th)

2nd Elimination Final: Geelong (6th) vs Essendon (7th)