Divine retrospection: Should struggling Carlton regret drafting Sam Walsh?

Following its latest submission, this time at the hands of Essendon last Sunday evening, the Carlton Football Club is dangerously reeling.

Evidently, the playing group hasn't performed anywhere close to expectation. Resultantly, more are calling for the head of second-year senior coach Michael Voss, who has the remainder of this year and next year to run on his current Carlton contract.

The Blues have lost each of their last six contests in particularly convincing fashion, with a lack of scoring potency unequivocally underlining the Blues' biggest issues.

However, a discussion centred on Carlton's list construction over the course of the last half-decade might shed a more revealing light on the club's shortcomings in recent times. Specifically, Carlton's franchise-altering decision to select midfielder Sam Walsh with the No. 1 pick in the 2018 National Draft is one that must at least be questioned, particularly considering the flourishing careers of those selected after him.

During the Blues' most recent debacle on Sunday, Walsh lodged 35 mostly-inconsequential possessions. Perhaps that's a tad harsh. But perhaps it isn't. Walsh's 35 touches culminated in just 335 metres gained, averaging out to less than 10 metres gained per disposal. Further, those 35 disposals resulted in a meagre three score involvements, no direct scores, and no goal assists. Walsh went inside 50 with just four of those 35 disposals.

As with all things, there are two sides to this equation: that Carlton should remain satisfied with its selection of Walsh, or that Carlton should regret its decision.

The Blues should remain satisfied with their selection

Consistent performance

Walsh has experienced something of a downturn in play over the course of Carlton's recent struggles. While his accumulation numbers haven't wavered – his 29.7 possession-per-game average rates above his career mean of 27.4 and ranks just a smidgen below the 29.8 he averaged during his 2021 All-Australian campaign – his decisions with ball in hand have been criticised by some, and his inside 50 and clearances count is down on last year's numbers.

Specifically, Walsh has favoured the dump-kick to a heavily-populated contest on numerous occasions this year, as opposed to, say, dishing to a running overlap or forcing the opposition's hand by attacking the corridor. However, on the whole, the Blues' ball magnet is widely recognised for his consistent high performance relating to his ball-winning capability, tackling pressure and defensive work rate.

Captaincy capability

While Patrick Cripps, revered among his teammates, is Carlton's captain in every sense, Walsh provides an additional layer of leadership quality. He is typically seen barking instructions or encouragement and simply appears to be an overall respected voice, not only in the Blues' engine room but within the four walls of Princes Park.

Is Walsh future Carlton captain material? Arguably, yes. Is there enough of an interlude in age between Walsh, 22, and Cripps, 28, for that circumstance to eventuate? Probably, provided he remains a Blue for life. In any case, at a minimum, his vocal presence acts as a support for Cripps and Carlton's other leaders and showcases an ability to take on a larger leadership responsibility down the line.

Durability and versatility

They say ‘the best ability is availability'. Well, prior to this season, since arriving at Princes Park Walsh played in all but two possible games for the Blues (81 out of 83). He played all 22 games in 2019 – his rookie season – and 2021, when he earned his maiden All-Australian blazer.

He played in all 17 of Carlton's outings during the COVID-shortened season in 2020 and missed just two gamedays last year. Walsh missed the first month of this season due to rehabilitation from back surgery but has played every game since returning. On the whole, his availability has been consistently dependable.

At the peak of his powers, Walsh is an inside midfielder winning the Sherrin at the coalface and dishing or clearing. However, he isn't limited to that trade. As a natural accumulator, the Blues' ball magnet will push outside to a wing and damage the opposition in open space with his disposal. Regardless of if he's playing inside or outside, though, Walsh has also demonstrated a constant ability to impact the scoreboard, whether that be from kicking a goal himself, a direct goal assist, or a general score involvement.

The Blues should regret their selection

Lack of winning impact

Around the ground, Walsh is ubiquitous. But, while he has received his fair share of individual plaudits to this point in his career, we should be allowed to question his contribution to team success. In the 'Walsh Era', the Blues are 33-48 (a winning margin of just 40.7%). Since that era began at Carlton, the Blues have also added midfielders Matthew Kennedy, George Hewett and Adam Cerra to their engine room. Add Cripps into the conversation and it's an apt supporting cast. Yet, to this point, it hasn't come together.

Walsh has played under three different senior coaches before reaching his 100-game milestone. Brendon Bolton, David Teague and Voss have all overseen his development in some capacity across almost five seasons, and yet the Blues have still lost more than half their games that Walsh partakes in. Obviously, the fact that Walsh has played under three coaches in such a short span is indicative of the fact that high-level coaching has been a sorely lacking area at Princes Park. Albeit, the grey-area query remains: How much of that burden deserves to fall on the likes of Walsh (and Cripps, and Cerra, etc.) for simply not finding ways to win more games? Difficult to quantify.

Walsh's opportunity cost

Within this entire conversation, potentially the biggest concern eating at the minds of Carlton's list management department will be whether, looking back in hindsight, selecting Walsh was worth bypassing a bevy of talent currently thriving at other AFL clubs, arguably more so than the 2023 version of Walsh.

Retrospectively, the top names available to Carlton at No.1 included key-position forwards Jack Lukosius, Max and Ben King, midfielders Connor Rozee, Zak Butters, Bailey Smith and Tarryn Thomas, and forward Izak Rankine. Along with Walsh, Lukosius was the other name making considerable noise to be chosen first overall. Of all the first-round selections in the 2018 National Draft, only Walsh and Rozee have been selected to at least one All-Australian side.

Gold Coast's Lukosius is having a profound impact on Stuart Dew's forward line this season, showcasing his overhead marking and remarkable set-shot accuracy. Ben King, too, has impressed on multiple occasions since making a long-awaited return from injury. In saying all this, though, the argument could easily be made that the Blues didn't require another tall forward project, particularly as future Coleman medallists Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow were already listed. Regardless, as Blues fans continue to dread McKay's set-shot unpredictability and sit through hours of offensive impotence, most would at least be asking 'What if?'

Meantime, since returning home from the Suns, Adelaide's Rankine has been nothing short of stellar. Despite the five-year gap in age, Rankine's deadly goal sense is scarily reminiscent of a former Crows goalsneak; Brisbane's Charlie Cameron. As a general forward, Rankine has managed an average of 16 possessions per game to go along with 1.9 goals. He ranks sixth in the AFL in total score involvements this season.

Bearing in mind Carlton's severe lack of game-altering small-to-medium-sized forwards - Matthew Owies and Corey Durdin are serviceable but not special, the embattled Jack Martin has combated several injuries throughout his career, and Jesse Motlop, while promising, is inexperienced and inconsistent - to complement the aerial skillsets of Curnow and McKay, Rankine's career trajectory at West Lakes might strike a few Blues fans' nerves.

As for Smith and Thomas, who were each taken in the latter half of the top ten, Carlton would likely have been lambasted for 'reaching' for either of those two at No. 1. Albeit, Smith has at least proven a game-breaking, match-winning ability on the biggest stage – most popularly in the waning stages of the Bulldogs' 2021 semi-final win over Brisbane.

That leaves Port Adelaide's Rozee, who is probably the only genuine alternative to selecting Walsh, considering where he was selected, his similar positional versatility, game influence, and status as an established All-Australian.

This season, the argument is straightforward to make that Rozee has performed at a higher standard than Walsh, ranking superior in a host of influential metrics including inside 50s (6.5 to 4.1), metres gained (509 to 305), score involvements (6.8 to 5.9), goals scored (9 to 3), and coaches votes (43 to 5). The Power livewire has certainly spurred his side's stretch of white-hot form as Port Adelaide boasts a ten-game win streak.

Verdict and inevitable hindsight bias

Ultimately, it's very easy to look back in retrospect. It's very easy to point the finger at a group of under-the-pump recruiters and say they passed on flourishing talent five years ago because the team is languishing in the bottom half of the standings. It's very easy to play the blame game and place Walsh at the front of the line to cop that blazing blowtorch.

However, the decision made by Carlton in late 2018 to draft Walsh, an impending superstar who can achieve that aforementioned status by adjusting a few within-reach chinks in his armour, was the correct one at the time for a storied, yet struggling, club in need of a difference-maker in the most imperative section of the ground. And, while there is a lot of doubt floating about during these tough Carlton times, those suspicions probably don't deserve to linger in the face of Sam Walsh.