Every AFL club’s most intriguing crop of off-contract players: Part 1

The 2023 AFL season has well and truly ticked into the business end of proceedings, and with that, the on-field activity becomes increasingly captivating.

Discussion and debate about the state of umpiring, dangerous tackles and the MRO, 'wildcard' finals formats – and everything else of the like – has dominated the league's agenda to this point in the year.

However, as we edge excitedly closer to the flag-deciding matchups of this season, we also creep closer to the off-season; signalling free agency and trades!

As is the case every season, an array of appealing talent is potentially up for grabs.

In this three-part series, we're not necessarily analysing each club's biggest or most popular off-contract names. Rather, we've examined every squad's most intriguing crop of players whose contract situations provoke curiosity.

So, without further ado, let's explore the first six teams and their off-contract assets.

Adelaide Crows

Following the Crows' completion of a substantial amount of business during the unofficial mid-year retention period – cementing the futures of a host of youngsters, including Josh Rachele, Jake Soligo, and Chayce Jones – there's outstanding work to be done at West Lakes amid Adelaide's corroding fight for a finals seed.

Taylor Walker
Walker's unforeseen 2023 goal-fest campaign has placed Adelaide's list management department in a compelling situation.

Tabling 'Tex' a respectable contract beyond this season appears a foregone conclusion; it seems a certainty that it's a matter of 'when' rather than 'if'.

Against considerable odds, the 33-year-old Crows veteran is a genuine Coleman Medal chance this season, having kicked 50 goals from 16 games to date, dominating the majority of his direct opponents.

Walker's stunning conversion rate translates to an average of 3.1 goals per game. He's registered a better figure in only one other season in his career; in 2012, when he managed a 3.3-goal mean, bagging a career-high 63 majors through 19 outings. While unlikely, Walker surpassing that figure across his next three games isn't outside his capability, especially after what we've witnessed him deliver in 2023.

Walker's management may be advising the veteran to hold off signing on the dotted line for a while longer, as the long-kicking forward likely has some leverage to add a few more dollars to his current prospective total by the cessation of this season.

Tom Doedee
Doedee's ACL rupture means he's sidelined for the remainder of Adelaide's season, which potentially opens the door to questions about his ongoing contract situation at West Lakes.

The dependable key-position pillar is not only one of the Crows' best stoppers, but is also a valued member of Matthew Nicks' leadership group, pushing the assumption that he will receive a Crows contract extension offer. However, Doedee's long-term absence, coupled with a potential issue or two, may mean that equation isn't as straightforward as first thought.

There's no guarantee the 26-year-old is ready to re-join Crows training at the beginning of next season; we're now versed in the unpredictability of ACL recovery setbacks. There's also the talking point of Doedee being overlooked for Adelaide's captaincy in favour of recent import Jordan Dawson, and whether or not that ruffled a few feathers in the Doedee camp.

Finally, and potentially most significantly as it pertains to a recommitment decision, Doedee is a Geelong Falcons product, leading to the expectation that he will receive plentiful interest from Victorian clubs.

A recent report tied Doedee to the Brisbane Lions, whose tall defensive depth is shorthanded, signalling the whispers have already begun.

Importantly, though, Doedee holds a restricted-free-agent status, meaning a club with ample cap space may have the means to put a lucrative offer to Doedee with the hope that Adelaide, whose list department has agreed to a spree of long-term player re-signings in the space of the last month, decide not to match.

Albeit, in the case that none of the aforementioned sticking points are legitimately problematic in Doedee's mind, the Crows' positive on-field trajectory could be enough reason to persuade a long-term recommitment from the valued backman.

Rory Sloane
Sloane, as one of the competition's elder statesmen, finds himself in a situation similar to that of Richmond stalwart Trent Cotchin.

Sloane, like the Tigers' 300-gamer, has undoubtedly slowed down during these latter stages of his decorated career.

Albeit, at times throughout this season, the wily veteran has inspired confidence that he could play on next year, continuing to demonstrate his defensive impact on games and his admirable on-field leadership.

Despite managing just four games in an injury-debilitating 2022 season, Sloane has had a mini-rejuvenation of sorts this year, playing in every single one of the Crows' games and going at a respectable mean of 19.6 disposals and 5.2 tackles per game.

If Sloane and the Crows were to mutually agree to a short-term extension beyond this year, though, this rapidly-improving Adelaide side shapes as a stubborn one to retain a spot next year, even for someone with as revered a reputation as Sloane.

Brisbane Lions

Dayne Zorko
Zorko's contract situation presents an intriguing case to consider from a Lions list management perspective.

Currently slated to enter unrestricted free agency at the end of the year at age 34, Zorko has played all 12 of his AFL seasons as a Lion and has served as Brisbane's skipper, effectively, presumably, ruling out the possibility of the efficient-kicking flanker seeking a new home in 2024.

A more likely outcome? Brisbane offers a one-year addendum to the long-serving veteran's current contract.

A slightly less likely but still possible scenario? Zorko calls time on an eventful career at the cessation of this season, opening the door to enhanced senior opportunity for Brisbane's younger brigade of flankers.

Marcus Adams
Uncertainty clouds Adams' footballing future, as he continues to nurse plaguing concussion after-effects.

Not dissimilar to the embattled McCartin brothers' struggles, Adams' situation is incredibly unfortunate, as, when fit and firing, he provides immense value to Brisbane's backline.

While the health effects of his concussion battle are of foremost importance, his protracted absence also has the potential to cripple his AFL career, particularly as it pertains to securing a contract extension beyond this season.

As Adams remains sidelined, the Lions continue to oversee the emergence of key defender Jack Payne, while the club's list committee prepares to dabble in the free agency and trade market at the position, reportedly showing interest in off-contract Crow Tom Doedee.

There is a possibility that Payne, who has lost just 15 per cent of his contested defensive one-on-ones (CDOOO) this season, has inspired enough long-term confidence in Brisbane to view Adams as expendable, depending on the short-term condition of his current health concerns. Payne's list spot in Brisbane is confirmed, holding a contract that extends through next season.

Further, the addition of a big-name key defender via the upcoming exchange period could plunge Adams' career into peril.

Kai Lohmann
While Zorko and Adams' contract situations are perhaps more front-of-mind for the Lions' stakeholders and supporters alike, the lesser-talked-about circumstances surrounding Lohmann are just as intriguing, if not more so.

Lohmann, the only first-rounder from the 2021 National Draft yet to receive a new deal, was subject to plenty of hype in the lead-up to, and following his Lions debut. However, he played only one full game in his debut season, with the other coming as Brisbane's substitute.

Only against the Swans in Round 14 did Lohmann make his first appearance of the 2023 season, managing 14 disposals and four inside 50s and bringing his career total to a mere three games. Doubts about a senior future for the small forward in Brisbane must be rising.

The Lions' towering forward line typically consists of Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood, and either Darcy Fort or Oscar McInerney, depending on which of the two is resting forward.

Brisbane's preference for a taller set-up doesn't leave plenty of room for smaller roaming forwards.

Lohmann could be seen as a casualty of Brisbane's forward-line construction, as superstar Charlie Cameron and complementary hard-worker Lincoln McCarthy currently make up the brunt of Brisbane's smaller brigade.

Factor in that there is also usually a midfielder-type resting forward of the ball – typically Zac Bailey, Cameron Rayner, Will Ashcroft, or the like – and there's limited opportunity for Lohmann to consistently make a significant impact.

Evidently, the Lions' list management brains trust is taking its time in coming to a decision regarding the livewire forward. Will he be seen as a necessary piece of Brisbane's future, or will he be donning different colours in 2024?

Lohmann, prior to arriving at the Lions, featured prominently for the GWV Rebels in the Coates Talent League. Could he be tempted home to Victoria?

Since the wiry youngster hasn't served enough Lions campaigns to qualify for free agent status, any such movement would have to be orchestrated via trade.

Daniel Rich
The long-kicking Rich remains a topic of contention after he and fellow veteran Jack Gunston made the remarkable call to stand themselves down from senior selection due to poor performance.

The highly-documented stance followed the Lions' shock loss to Hawthorn at the MCG in Round 13. Rich's in-game efforts were lambasted, most notably by Fox Footy analyst David King, who was particularly scathing in his assessment of the veteran half-back-flanker's play prior to Rich's standing down.

While Gunston has since been welcomed back into Fagan's starting side, Rich remains an afterthought, with that theme possibly continuing into Brisbane's off-season contract business.

The long-tenured veteran remains off-contract as the end of the season becomes nigh, begging the question of if the Lions' list committee views the booming left-footer as a necessary piece of the club's puzzle beyond this year.

Physically-imposing second-year flanker Darcy Wilmot is making quick work of his ascension, the smooth-moving Keidean Coleman is a wonderful ball user and boasts valuable foot speed, and similarly-speedy Irishman Conor McKenna was acquired just this pre-season for his rebounding talents.

Those facts leave Rich in a precarious position as younger, faster Lions start bearing down.

Carlton

Tom De Koning
De Koning has been one of, if not the most, speculated off-contract trade targets for opposition sides searching for a long-term key-position pillar. Hence, his situation needs no further introduction.

The blonde-haired Blue has flashed glimpses of considerable talent across his six-season career to date – particularly last year – boasting a portfolio that promotes the acclaimed 'athletic ruck-forward' archetype.

De Koning's management has certainly been propositioned by rival clubs searching for a long-term key-position pillar, with the Blues understood to be attempting to zero in on a short-term addendum to his current deal.

Mitch McGovern
McGovern's contract situation is an intriguing one for the Blues and any clubs potentially monitoring with keen interest.

Do the Blues view McGovern as an essential player beyond this season? The 28-year-old, despite previous injury hindrances, has played 14 games this year, already representing the third-most he's played in a season in his eight-year career.

The intercept-marking defender, while he has played eight AFL seasons, has only served five of them at Princes Park, precluding him from possessing a free-agent status.

Therefore, if Carlton elects not to re-sign McGovern, any suitor would need to strike a trade agreement with the Blues.

Jack Silvagni
Silvagni has been a whipping boy for the Blues at times, falling in and out of favour with Carlton's match committee, usually depending on the opponent.

The father-son Blue's role in Michael Voss' side isn't a simple one to comprehend, as, while he doesn't play in the exact same mould as high-marking, match-winning forwards Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay, he still plays an integral role forward of the ball for the Blues.

While Silvagni is certainly capable of taking the big marks himself, a lot of his value lies in what he does for Carlton that most supporters might not notice; such as impacting marking contests and bringing balls to ground, blocking for Curnow and McKay's stretching leads, and the general acceptance of being the third-in-line key option up forward.

However, following the revelation of McKay's six-to-eight-week injury timeline, more goal-production onus will fall on Silvagni, particularly as the Blues mount a finals assault. Across his eight-year Blues career, though, Silvagni has never averaged more than 0.9 goals per game in a season.

While his father, Stephen, has moved onto greener pastures as Moorabbin's list expert, the same probably shouldn't be expected of Jack, who's more likely than not to be rewarded with a contract extension at Princes Park, especially considering the likelihood of De Koning departing at season's end.

Paddy Dow
Dow's future on Royal Parade appears sealed, despite appearances in Michael Voss' side in recent weeks.

While there are question marks over the Carlton futures of the aforementioned De Koning, McGovern, and even Silvagni, Dow's situation seems the most clean-cut; there likely isn't a future for him in navy blue beyond 2023.

Consistently middling play has resulted in him being overlooked at selection most weeks. All four of Dow's appearances this season have come as the activated substitute, averaging just 9.8 disposals per game in those contests, short of his modest career average of 13.4.

In terms of the prioritised occupants of Carlton's engine room, the Blues are trotting out Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh, Adam Cerra, Matthew Kennedy and George Hewett most weekends, as Dow generally bides his time with the VFL Blues.

There hasn't been a lot of room for him to make his mark since the arrivals of Carlton's recent trade acquisitions, however, prior to them, Dow was afforded plenty of chances to prove he belongs at AFL level, playing 39 games across his first pair of AFL seasons.

While there's still time to alter the narrative before the year is out, Dow's management is likely surveying their alternative options for 2024.

Collingwood

Ash Johnson
Johnson, hailing from Sturt, seems primed to turn his back on interstate overtures and return to Olympic Park at the end of the year, provided there isn't a late change of heart.

A Herald Sun report states a belief that Johnson will recommit to the Magpies despite 'strong rival interest' throughout this year.

There's a logjam of forwards at Collingwood, including the likes of Johnson, Brody Mihocek, Dan McStay and Mason Cox.

Senior opportunities have been slim pickings for Johnson, who arrived at Collingwood midway through the 2021 season. The South Australian played nine games in 2022 before adding another 14 thus far this season, however, he was substituted out in three contests this year.

While the competition for spots between Johnson, Mihocek and McStay is set to continue into the future if Johnson is indeed retained, a bigger question mark remains hanging over the impending decision on Mason Cox's contract.

Mason Cox
Due to a relative lack of reliable key-position depth both in the ruck and forward line, the Magpies may feel obliged to hand Cox another extension at Olympic Park.

Not only is Cox Collingwood's preferred second ruckman behind Darcy Cameron, but he's also a proven, accurate goalkicker, assisting adequately forward of the ball when he's not rucking.

Cameron has battled injury multiple times this season, making Cox's importance to Collingwood's flag assault all the more crucial as finals time creeps closer.

Ex-Brisbane recruit McStay has struggled to get onto the park in his first season as a Magpie, sidelined by a combination of injury and illness to this point, while questions remain over Mihocek's ability to hold down the number one key forward role at Collingwood.

Hence, while Cox, 32, isn't in the prime years of his career, his knowledge of Collingwood's desired play style, as well as the valuable depth he represents, leads to the presumption he is most likely offered another deal.

Further, while he's a restricted free agent, it's hard to see another side putting forth a substantial offer sheet to the American.

Essendon

The prolonged, complex contract standstills involving Darcy Parish and Mason Redman have been well-documented, with the duo understood to still be weighing up respective offers from the Bombers, as well as interest from rival suitors.

Therefore, not a lot of detail is needed regarding the star pair's situation.

Dyson Heppell
Heppell, meanwhile, hasn't had his contract circumstances discussed at much length, despite his status as an unrestricted free agent.

While Essendon's ex-skipper seems most likely to hang up the boots after this season, he's played in all but one of the Bombers' games in 2023, demonstrating late-career durability.

Heppell's play hasn't always been the most reliable among Brad Scott's burgeoning squad, sometimes prone to skill error or a lack of physicality at the contest, however, the overall leadership presence he provides to the young Dons is one of his more invaluable traits.

Brandon Zerk-Thatcher
Zerk-Thatcher, while a promising long-term key-position prospect at the Hangar, has been prone to defensive lapses this season, particularly in one-on-one contests with powerful opposition forwards. The 24-year-old has logged 21 contested defensive losses (CDL) from 57 contested defensive one-on-ones (CDOOO), with his loss tally currently ranking worst in the AFL among those who have been involved in at least 27 CDOOOs.

Intercepting on instinct, though, has been more of a consistent strength for Zerk-Thatcher, averaging 2.1 intercept marks per game, having demonstrated enough prowess to earn the trust of Essendon's coaching staff on a week-to-week basis.

Adrian Dodoro and the Bombers' list management circle will ponder Zerk-Thatcher's lapses from a one-on-one standpoint, undoubtedly making a note of the potential long-term concerns they could raise for the Bombers.

However, with rival clubs understood to be circling Zerk-Thatcher if an Essendon agreement can't be arranged, the imminent offering of an extension at Tullamarine seems overwhelmingly likely, as we haven't yet witnessed the youngster's finished product.

Fremantle

Liam Henry
Henry still finds himself without a contract for next season, as it is understood the electric wingman has put off contract negotiations until the end of the year.

The 21-year-old has battled inconsistency throughout the early years of his career since being selected by Fremantle with the No. 9 draft choice in 2019, with this season representing something of a 'prove it' campaign as he aims to earn a lucrative deal beyond 2023.

Competing with the likes of veteran James Aish and youngster Nathan O'Driscoll for a solidified spot on a wing, Henry has been forced to put his best foot forward, and he has done so during recent Fremantle outings against Essendon in Round 15 and the Western Bulldogs in Round 16.

Henry notched 32 disposals and eight marks in the Dockers' triumph over the Bombers and substantiated that with 33 possessions and six marks in the defeat to the Bulldogs.

The growing suspicion is that Henry will earn a respectable contract; it'll just be a matter of whether that's with Fremantle or elsewhere in 2024 and beyond.

Henry, while a product of Claremont, could seek more attractive playing opportunities this year, even if those aren't in Western Australia.

Nathan Wilson
Wilson's first season in Fremantle, 2018, represented the most games he's played for the Dockers in a season, with each successive campaign drumming up fewer appearances, including a mere six combined games over the last two years. Wilson played Fremantle's first four games of this season before suffering relegation to the WAFL's Peel Thunder side.

Wilson also stands as Fremantle's fourth-oldest listed player, younger only than veterans Nat Fyfe, Travis Colyer and Michael Walters.

There's little doubt that Hayden Young and Jordan Clark represent Fremantle's half-backline of the foreseeable future, while Heath Chapman and Brandon Walker, additionally, are established youngsters among coach Justin Longmuir's nimble back six who continue to keep Wilson at bay.

Fremantle's list management committee may view the 30-year-old as an afterthought, and potentially expendable come the year's end.