With finals footy starting to heat up we are now left with only four remaining teams, the Melbourne Demons, the Port Adelaide Power, the Geelong Cat, and the Western Bulldogs.
After the Bulldogs and Lions provided us with one of the games of the season, excitement is starting to increase over who will win the premiership in 2021.
While Melbourne and Port Adelaide are looking like the teams to beat, all four sides have played at the level of winning any of the remaining matchups. Injuries, experience, history, and form all play an important role in who will be the eventual winner.
Will the Demons break the longest grand finals drought in football? Will Geelong break their finals hoodoo since Hawthorn broke the Kennett Curse? Will the Bulldogs win another premiership from outside the top four? or Will Port Adelaide finally deliver on all the promise they have been showing over the past few seasons?
We look at two reasons why each of the remaining teams can and can't win the 2021 AFL premiership trophy.
Port Adelaide
Why they can
Recent Form
Coming into the preliminary finals, there is no side in better form than Port Adelaide. Having won seven games in a row, and 10 of their past 11, Port have hit their stride at the right time of the season.
Over this period, they have beaten two of their three potential opponents. In the final round of the season, the Power defeated the Bulldogs by two points. Despite the close final score, Port dominated for large portions of the match stopping the Bulldog's run and stopping them from playing their brand of footy.
The inaccuracy of Port (9.12) compared to the Bulldogs (10.4) kept the scores closer than the match appeared. More impressively was in the last quarter, the Power was able to pull back a deficit and showed strength by holding onto the lead when they first took it in the final quarter.
The Power then followed that up by an excellent display against Geelong. After taking control of the match in the second quarter, the Power put their foot down and blew open the match. Unlike against the Bulldogs, they didn't even give Geelong a chance as they doubled the Cats score to win by 43 points.
Port Adelaide is the most in-form team and gets the opportunity to play in front of a home crowd in both the Preliminary and Qualifying finals. No other side left in the finals has had the opportunity to play at their home ground, which gives the Power a distinct advantage. That form coupled with vocal South Australian fans could propel the Power into their first grand final since 2007.
Health
Injuries have plagued many sides throughout the season. Even Port Adelaide hasn't been immune, with Zac Butters, Xavier Duursma, Tom Clurey, Orazio Fantasia and Trent McKenzie being a few of the bigger name players to miss significant time.
The injury bug hit the Power throughout the regular season but has cleared up as the club made its way towards the finals.
Only two players,ย Fantasia and Mitch Georgiadesย are potential outs for this weekend's matchup. Both have been tracking positively and look likely to pass fitness tests this week and be cleared to play.
With this season being so difficult to predict, a run of good health could be the deciding factor in how far each side progresses. The Bulldogs this weekend, for example, could be without their captain Marcus Bontempelli, which would make the Power the prohibitive favourites for that match.
Their potential Grand Final opponent, Geelong, is without their main defender Tom Stewart, which leaves deficiencies in their defensive system.
The only other side with similar injury luck is the Demons, who are only missing Adam Tomlinson (who has been out all season), and Jayden Hunt, who is likely to be fit for the Grand Final should his side progress.
Unlike Melbourne however, Port Adelaide has faced adversity through injury this season and managed to maintain winning while dealing with those absences. While hoping for no more injuries for the remainder of the season, I think Port Adelaide could play through and adapt to further injuries more than any of the other sides remaining.
Why they can't
Form away from Adelaide
Since entering the league, Port Adelaide has been competitive in holding the record as the only side to not win a wooden spoon.
Their home in South Australia has been a fortress for the club, with many sides failing to hold a winning record at the venue. Getting the opportunity this weekend to play against the Western Bulldogs at home is a significant advantage.
The big problem arose when the AFL announced that the Grand Final will be played in Western Australia. More importantly, it would not be played in Adelaide.
This meant that the Power was going to have to win at least one match away from home, which has proven to be difficult over the course of their history.
While they have played any of the remaining sides in Western Australia often (or at all), they perform significantly better in Adelaide when compared to other venues.
Geelong - 13.33% away compared to 44.12% at home
Western Bulldogs - 47.06% away compared to 62.5% at home
Melbourne Demons - 44.4% away compared to 77.78% at home
When playing against their remaining competitors, they win less than half of the time when playing on the road. Geelong is the only team that has managed to maintain a winning record in Adelaide.
While it bodes well for this weekend's matchup against the Bulldogs, it does make it difficult in the grand final. Port will have to go against the odds in order to win it all in 2021.
While Western Australia was always looking likely to host the grand final, it does highlight that if it was played in Adelaide... the premiership would be Port Adelaides to lose.
Flat track bullies
This is a term that has been thrown around a lot by the media when talking about Port Adelaide for the majority of this season (and even in 2020).
Flat Track Bullies are athletes who are able to dominate against lesser opponents and those under them in the standings. When they are facing the top tier and more difficult opponents, aren't able to have the same success.
Over the past two seasons, this has been an issue that has plagued the Power. In 2020 they lost to all of the other top four sides, only beating Richmond (in the regular season) and Geelong in the Qualifying Final. These losses amounted to three of the sides four for the entire year (with the other coming against 6th place St Kilda).
In 2021 Port Adelaide was appearing to have a similar season. In their first four matches against a top-five side, they were unsuccessful in being able to win. There only other loss for the season came against West Coast, who were appearing like a finals contender at the time. Port did slightly change the narrative, however, winning their past two matches against top-level opposition.
These past two seasons however optimise the saying Flat Track Bullies. Against weaker opposition, they are unbeatable and showcase their exceptional talent and ball movement. When playing against other top sides, cracks can start to appear and they can be vulnerable.
Having lost to all three sides left in the competition, their oppositions will enter a matchup knowing they have the formula to win. They will also have some degree of confidence that they will be able to come away with a victory, especially when away from Adelaide.
While their past two victories are beginning to help change the flat track bully narrative, the Power still has to win two more matches against difficult opponents. Only time will tell whether the Power will be able to change public perception, or will suffer a similar fate to 2020.
Over the next two games, we will see if the Power will be victorious, or keep the flat track bully label for another season.
