With finals footy starting to heat up we are now left with only four remaining teams, the Melbourne Demons, the Port Adelaide Power, the Geelong Cat, and the Western Bulldogs.
After the Bulldogs and Lions provided us with one of the games of the season, excitement is starting to increase over who will win the premiership in 2021.
While Melbourne and Port Adelaide are looking like the teams to beat, all four sides have played at the level of winning any of the remaining matchups. Injuries, experience, history, and form all play an important role in who will be the eventual winner.
Will the Demons break the longest grand finals drought in football? Will Geelong break their finals hoodoo since Hawthorn broke the Kennett Curse? Will the Bulldogs win another premiership from outside the top four? or Will Port Adelaide finally deliver on all the promise they have been showing over the past few seasons?
We look at two reasons why each of the remaining teams can and can't win the 2021 AFL premiership trophy.
Western Bulldogs
Why they can
The Underdogs
The Bulldogs have been here before. It was only five years ago when the Bulldogs did the impossible. For the first time since the current top eight system, a team from outside the top four managed to win the premiership.
The Bulldogs thrived in 2016 by planning fearless football and using their exceptional, yet still young at the time, midfield to overpower their opponents. This year's team is a more talented and cohesive group than the Dogs of 2016. They also have the second most finals experience yet nearly as youthful as the Demons and the Power. 2021 would be a return to their successful formula of sweeping through the finals and winning from the bottom four.
What the Bulldogs did in 2016 was something that has rarely occurred since the league's inception.ย In the history of VFL/AFL history, only Adelaide in 1998 and Melbourne in 1900 have also managed to win the premiership from outside the top four.
Finishing outside the top four comes with some obvious downsides. The challenges presented to a team in that position are usually too difficult to overcome. A team needs to play near flawlessly for the entire finals series to even have a chance of making a historic run. They also will be the away team for (at least) the final three games of the finals and play four weeks straight without a break.
The Western Bulldogs this year however find themselves in a unique situation. Firstly, the coach and leadership group of this team have beliefs. They played the best football of the past five years in this situation. Using the underdog idea, they were able to pile on four successive victories in the finals to win the premiership cup. Due to changes in the finals system, they still remain the only side to win four matches in the same finals series.
Another usual issue is the travel and playing away. Their match against Port Adelaide this weekend will be the only match remaining that the Bulldogs play where they are a genuine away team. In a normal season, a matchup against Melbourne of Geelong at the MCG would be a disadvantage because of the larger fanbases and few games that the Dogs play at the venue. This year, however, they will be playing on neutral territory in Western Australia where there isn't the same amount of fan support. Even being the underdog of the finals could provide them added local support in WA, as football fans would be more receptive to supporting the Dogs than the Demons or Cats.
The Western Bulldogs are also unlike most teams that fall out of the top four. For the majority of the season, the Dogs found themselves in the top two even finding themselves on the top of the ladder at the end of round 20. Three successive disappointing losses to end the season however meant that they missed out on the double chance by 0.5 percentage points. It is debatable that the Dogs when they are up and about are one of the two best teams in the league.
Lastly, the changes to the schedule will benefit the Bulldogs. If victorious against the Power then they will have a week off before the grand final. That will give them extra time to nurse and rest from some of the injuries but could also be a detriment to their opposition. If the Demons were to also make it to the grand final, they would end up playing two games in four weeks before the last game in September. This break could impact the Demons coming out of the blocks a bit slow. Giving the Dogs a sniff in the finals could be a recipe for failure for their opponents.
While some could see it as a disadvantage, I don't know if the Bulldogs would see it that way. Feeling like they have something to prove and that they are hunting down their opposition is exactly the way that the Dogs like to play. Half of the clubs' premierships have come from outside the top four, so why couldn't they do it again?
A graphic on the Reddit thread 'VFL/AFL Final Ladder Position Graph', shows the ladder position of each season while highlighting in yellow the eventual premiers.
Midfield
The Western Bulldogs possess a midfield group that would be the envy of all 17 other clubs. At other clubs, these midfielders could be in the top two players but are fighting for a starting position at the Bulldogs. The club is extremely deep in the midfield with at least six A - high B-grade midfielders on their list. They include:
Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae, Bailey Smith, Tom Liberatore, ย Josh Dunkleyย andย Adam Treloar.
The skipper has put together another excellent season making a strong case to be the best player in the league. While not having the same Grand Final success as Dustin Martin, his resume holds up against him in nearly all other categories.
The Bont has always seen plenty of the ball and has great skills and vision. This year with such a stacked midfield, he has spent more time up forward. This has paid dividends for the Dogs with Bontempelli averaging over a goal a game. Adding goal kicking to his skillset has what has elevated his own game, and the potential of the Bulldogs.
Jack Macrae is another star who has broken records in 2021. He now holds the record for most consecutive 30+ disposal games. He also has close to a 50/50 split of handballs to kicks which he hasn't been that close to since 2015.
Bailey Smith is a match-winner as seen on Saturday nights thrilling match against the Lions. He is an electric and exciting player who provides a spark in the midfield brings pace into the middle. The boy with 'ice in his veins' nearly singlehandedly won the match for the Dogs in the last quarter and stood up when the Bont was down with an injury.
WHAT a goal and what a moment from Bailey Smith ๐๐๐
๐ REPORT: https://t.co/P9HvnfvkKD
๐ข STATS: https://t.co/Zm9BPxY1r6#AFLLionsDogs #AFLFinals pic.twitter.com/5rSs4JK6vN— Fox Footy (@FOXFOOTY) September 4, 2021
Tom Liberatore is the engine in the middle, that allows everyone else to play the way they do. He does the grunt work and gets the ball out of tight contests that allow the other excellent ball uses to move the ball forward. He leads the club and the league with 7.8 clearances a game. He is one of the most important players on the Dogs list. This was evident against Melbourne earlier this season when he was tagged by James Harmes. Doing so allowed Melbourne to take control of the inside ball and win the star-powered midfield battle.
Close mates Josh Dunkley and Adam Treloar have been hampered with injuries in 2021. Both have managed to get healthy at the right time of the season. Dunkley has been forced to spend more time in the defensive half and is still managing to have a positive impact on winning. Treloar has settled into his spot on the wing but hasn't had the same impact in the second half of the year as we saw in the opening few rounds. His quiet performances have been mitigated by the rest of the star power in the midfield.
As a whole, the midfield group is elite with talent and depth that ensures that there are always strong performances from multiple players in the middle. While the potential Bont injury is scary for a Bulldogs fan, there is no side in the competition better suited to overcome missing a player of his calibre.
Why they cannot
Tall Stocks
While possessing an elite midfield group the Bulldogs there is one area that is causing trouble for the Bulldogs. That is their tall stocks.
The absence of Stefan Martin has highlighted the club's deficiencies from the ruck position. Tim English and Lewis Young being their only other genuine ruck options hasย left them exposed by their opponents when given the predominant role.
The Dogs are 3rd last in the competition for hit-outs overall while being the worst of the teams that made the top eight. The firepower in the middle has helped alleviate their issues in the ruck as the dogs are still one of the competition's best stoppage sides. It does highlight one of the big weaknesses in the Dogs if Martin isn't in the team.
To win the Grand Final, the Bulldogs could have to beat out Scott Lycett and Max Gawn. Both of these ruckmen are in great form and could prove to be a handful for English and Young. Lycett's best game for the season came against the Bulldogs in round 23 where he had a season-high in hit-outs (40) and disposals (22) while Gawn had 56 hit-outs in round 19.
It is not just in the ruck where height is an issue for the Dogs. Opposition forwards are taking advantage of a size disadvantage too.
The Western Bulldog defenders are often helpless to fight off attacks from opposition forwards, with the side losing 31% of their defensive one-on-one contests. This ranks them last in the league in that category. They also are last in the competition for rebounding out of 50 with only 36 per game.
Tall forwards have proven to be a handful for the Dogs at times, with Peter Wright kicking seven goals against them in Round 21. Harry McKay and Josh Kennedy also managed to boot four apiece against the Dogs.
Josh Bruce has also suffered a season-ending injury while Jamarra Ugle-Hagan looks unlikely to make his way back into the side. This significantly reduces the Dog's firepower up forward, with Aaron Naughton being the only major tall threat down forward. Tim English has shown positives up forward, but without using him in the ruck then the Bulldogs are likely to get completely dominated in that area.
The absences have caused quite the conundrum for the Bulldogs not knowing where to play English. On the weekend Young and English combined couldn't amount to the same number of hitouts as McInnerney. Without English featuring heavily in the middle, the damage would be even greater.
The Bont injury?
While the rest of his teammates were grinding out a one-point victory against the Lions, their skipper could only watch from the sidelines. Suffering a knee injury in the latter part of the thrilling game, the Bont was unable to make his way back onto the ground.
"It should be alright... just landed kinda awkwardly."
โ Marcus Bontempelli on his apparent knee injury pic.twitter.com/farbjsCFGY
— 7AFL (@7AFL) September 4, 2021
After the game, he downplayed the injury telling Channel 7 that the injury was nothing too severe.
โIt should be all right,โ Bontempelli said in the post-match interview.
โInitial tests and whatnot are pretty good.
โI just landed awkwardly so I was a bit ginger initially and then the big fella fell across the leg, so rather than limp around out there probably the right thing was to interchange.โ
The Bulldogs head of sports medicine Chris Bell made a statement on the Bulldogs website on Monday. He said that while Cody Weightman will miss their clash against Port Adelaide, Bontempelli is still a chance to play.
โIn the last minutes of the game, Marcus landed and had his knee twisted,โ Bell said.
"Scans have cleared him of any serious structural damage, but he does have some symptoms related to the injury."
โWeโll work with Marcus through the back end of this week to determine his availability.โ
While the updates are looking positive, there is still going to be an injury cloud of Bontempelli this week. Being the captain and such an important player for his side, his absence would be a massive blow for the Bulldogs.
The last time that Bontempelli missed time for an injury was in 2018, having had an excellent run of injuries since then. The Dogs haven't had to gameplan around his absence for a while, with the player MVP difficult to replace. Trying to fill the void he leaves is difficult to do due to the all-around impact that he has on the game.
Bailey Smith is the player likely to step up for Bontempelli if he was absent, with Dunkley and/or Treloar having to spend more time in the middle replacing Smith. Doing this would still reduce their scoring output, which is more noticeable due to Weightman's concussion.
With a tough matchup this weekend against the Power, the Bulldogs will need a fully healthy Bontempelli to really push Port Adelaide to the limits. If the Bont is missing any of his pace, strength, or ability to hit the scoreboard over the weekend it could prove to be too much for even the Bulldogs star midfield to overcome.
