With finals footy starting to heat up we are now left with only four remaining teams, the Melbourne Demons, the Port Adelaide Power, the Geelong Cat, and the Western Bulldogs.
After the Bulldogs and Lions provided us with one of the games of the season, excitement is starting to increase over who will win the premiership in 2021.
While Melbourne and Port Adelaide are looking like the teams to beat, all four sides have played at the level of winning any of the remaining matchups. Injuries, experience, history, and form all play an important role in who will be the eventual winner.
Will the Demons break the longest grand finals drought in football? Will Geelong break their finals hoodoo since Hawthorn broke the Kennett Curse? Will the Bulldogs win another premiership from outside the top four? or Will Port Adelaide finally deliver on all the promise they have been showing over the past few seasons?
We look at two reasons why each of the remaining teams can and can't win the 2021 AFL premiership trophy.
Over the course of the season, the Demons have overcome multiple challenges and stormed their way to the top of the ladder. Many in the media had pegged Melbourne for a fringe finals team at the beginning of the season. Even Melbourne's biggest believers were only predicting a top-eight finish. No one expected them to be as dominant as they have been.
Only their coach Simon Goodwin predicted such a feat for the club, who saw a bounce-back season for the Demons earlier in March this year. When speaking to AFL media, Goodwin was optimistic about the direction of his club.
"As I said last year, the foundations have been laid as a club over a period of time now. I stand by that. Our expectations are a lot higher. We don't want to just play finals. We want to play significant finals and win significant finals," he said.
"We need to put ourselves into a top-four position to give ourselves the best chance to win the ultimate. That's what we're setting out to do."
"The foundations have been laid and I think we've had the summer that gives us the capacity to do that. We're setting ourselves to go about it."
Starting the year strong, they stormed their way to nine consecutive victories with a 9-0 record. They then narrowly lost to Adelaide by one point in Round 10, which prompted some doubt from the media.
They had their ups and downs throughout the middle rounds but finished the season strong to solidify their spot as the best team throughout the home and away season.
For most teams, winning the minor premiership is an excellent achievement that leads to varied finals success.
For Melbourne however, history is now looking favourable for them after their top-of-the-table finish.
Throughout their span in the AFL/VFL, the Demons have been the minor premiers in nine other seasons.
1939, 1940, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1964
In all of these seasons, the minor premiership led to a grand finals berth. 1958 was the only season in which they didn't manage to take home the premiership trophy. 89% of the time that Melbourne has ended the season on top of the ladder, they have ended up holding up the premiership cup. The other 11% of the time they at least make the grand final.
No other team has had the same level of success in converting excellent regular season form into the premiership. History would lead us to believe that Melbourne is extremely likely to make it to the grand final. Once they get there, the odds also suggest that the Demons could win their 13th premiership and end the league's longest premiership drought.
Also, 1964 was the last time the Demons have won a premiership. Coincidentally enough is that was the last time that the Olympics took place in Tokyo, Japan.
Melbourne commands the league's premier defense, holding their opponents to a league-best 65.6 points per game.
Headlined by All-Australian defenders Steven May and Jake Lever, Melbourne suffocate opposition forwards by minimising their impact around the ground. May normally locks down the opposition's best forward, while Lever floats between his opponent and being the spare man, leading to spoils and intercepts. The Demons created an AFL record in intercept marks, taking 19.9 per match. The pressure that the whole defensive unit creates has led to opposition scoring on just 35.3 percent of their forward 50 entries.
While leading the league in intercept marks, they also limit opposition marks inside 50. Throughout the season, their opponents have only completed 188 marks within the forward 50. No other club has limited opposition players to under 200 throughout that span.
Christian Salem has also had a career year in defence, not only improving on the defensive side of the ball but having elite ball use to propel the ball forward and move the ball out of defence. He was in contention and just missed out on selection in the All-Australian team himself.
While Melbourne has had individual success when winning the minor premiership, it has been 57 years since that has occurred. Since then the league has expanded and regular-season dominance has begun being less important throughout September.
In particular, in the last 25 years, there have only been six teams that converted a top of ladder finish into a premiership win. While in the past decade, there has only been one.
Essendon 2000 Port Adelaide 2004 West Coast 2006
Geelong 2007 Collingwood 2010 Hawthorn 2013
Over 75% of the time, the top sides have been unsuccessful in being able to win both the regular season while obtaining grand final glory. With the expansion of the game and influx of talent, it has become increasingly difficult to maintain success throughout the entire year.
During that period of time, 36% of the premierships have come from 2nd place, 28% have come from 3rd place, 4% have come from 4th and the other 8% have been from outside the top four.
This demonstrates how the top spot has become a target for other clubs, with many teams unable to handle that pressure. Even the most dominant club in the past four years, Richmond, failed to make the grand final during their only minor premiership over their dynasty.
Melbourne sneaking ahead on the ladder in the last game of the season could end up costing them a chance of winning their 13th premiership if the past 25 years continue to repeat itself.
While Melbourne's defence, midfield and ruck are some of their biggest strengths, they are often unable to convert turnovers and forward opportunities into scoreboard pressure and insurmountable leads. The Demons were the fourth most inaccurate team in front of goals throughout the season. The only three below them were Fremantle, Adelaide, and Gold Coast, all of whom failed to make the top eight.
Melbourne averaged 12.3 goals and 12.3 behinds throughout the regular season. All the other sides left in the finals had over 52% goals to behinds. The accuracy of the remaining sides are as followed; Port Adelaide (12.5 goals and 10.5 behinds), Geelong (12 goals and 10.7 behinds), and Bulldogs 13 goals and 11.9 behinds).
This inaccuracy can even be seen in large victories, including their win in the qualifying final. They managed to score 13.15 for the match. This resulted in a final score that was more flattering for their opponents than it should have been.
Throughout 2021, Melbourne has only lost four games and managed one draw. Here are the final scores for those matches (with Melbourne's score being first).
9.11 to 13.7 against the Bulldogs
7.13 to 9.10 against GWS
11.13 to 12.7 against Hawthorn
9.9 to 11.14 against Collingwood
14.11 to 15.6 against Adelaide
In three of those losses, the Demons inaccuracy cost the match, having more scoring shots than Adelaide, GWS, and Hawthorn. Against the Bulldogs they equaled their opponent's scoring shots, and their loss to Collingwood was the occurrence where they finished with less.
In high stakes close finals, inaccuracy in front of goal can be disastrous and could lead to an upset over the next two weeks. With a midfield and defense filled with talent, the Demons will always have plenty of opportunities to generate scoreboard pressure. Melbourne needs to hope that they kick straight over the next two weeks, otherwise, they could find themselves missing out on success in the last game in September.
Useless AFL Stats recently created this ladder based on the accuracy of each side. It optimises the inaccuracy issues of the Demons throughout 2021.
Coming into the preliminary finals, there is no side in better form than Port Adelaide. Having won seven games in a row, and 10 of their past 11, Port have hit their stride at the right time of the season.
Over this period, they have beaten two of their three potential opponents. In the final round of the season, the Power defeated the Bulldogs by two points. Despite the close final score, Port dominated for large portions of the match stopping the Bulldog's run and stopping them from playing their brand of footy.
The inaccuracy of Port (9.12) compared to the Bulldogs (10.4) kept the scores closer than the match appeared. More impressively was in the last quarter, the Power was able to pull back a deficit and showed strength by holding onto the lead when they first took it in the final quarter.
The Power then followed that up by an excellent display against Geelong. After taking control of the match in the second quarter, the Power put their foot down and blew open the match. Unlike against the Bulldogs, they didn't even give Geelong a chance as they doubled the Cats score to win by 43 points.
Port Adelaide is the most in-form team and gets the opportunity to play in front of a home crowd in both the Preliminary and Qualifying finals. No other side left in the finals has had the opportunity to play at their home ground, which gives the Power a distinct advantage. That form coupled with vocal South Australian fans could propel the Power into their first grand final since 2007.
Injuries have plagued many sides throughout the season. Even Port Adelaide hasn't been immune, with Zac Butters, Xavier Duursma, Tom Clurey, Orazio Fantasia and Trent McKenzie being a few of the bigger name players to miss significant time.
The injury bug hit the Power throughout the regular season but has cleared up as the club made its way towards the finals.
Only two players, Fantasia and Mitch Georgiades are potential outs for this weekend's matchup. Both have been tracking positively and look likely to pass fitness tests this week and be cleared to play.
With this season being so difficult to predict, a run of good health could be the deciding factor in how far each side progresses. The Bulldogs this weekend, for example, could be without their captain Marcus Bontempelli, which would make the Power the prohibitive favourites for that match.
Their potential Grand Final opponent, Geelong, is without their main defender Tom Stewart, which leaves deficiencies in their defensive system.
The only other side with similar injury luck is the Demons, who are only missing Adam Tomlinson (who has been out all season), and Jayden Hunt, who is likely to be fit for the Grand Final should his side progress.
Unlike Melbourne however, Port Adelaide has faced adversity through injury this season and managed to maintain winning while dealing with those absences. While hoping for no more injuries for the remainder of the season, I think Port Adelaide could play through and adapt to further injuries more than any of the other sides remaining.
Since entering the league, Port Adelaide has been competitive in holding the record as the only side to not win a wooden spoon.
Their home in South Australia has been a fortress for the club, with many sides failing to hold a winning record at the venue. Getting the opportunity this weekend to play against the Western Bulldogs at home is a significant advantage.
The big problem arose when the AFL announced that the Grand Final will be played in Western Australia. More importantly, it would not be played in Adelaide.
This meant that the Power was going to have to win at least one match away from home, which has proven to be difficult over the course of their history.
While they have played any of the remaining sides in Western Australia often (or at all), they perform significantly better in Adelaide when compared to other venues.
Geelong - 13.33% away compared to 44.12% at home
Western Bulldogs - 47.06% away compared to 62.5% at home
Melbourne Demons - 44.4% away compared to 77.78% at home
When playing against their remaining competitors, they win less than half of the time when playing on the road. Geelong is the only team that has managed to maintain a winning record in Adelaide.
While it bodes well for this weekend's matchup against the Bulldogs, it does make it difficult in the grand final. Port will have to go against the odds in order to win it all in 2021.
While Western Australia was always looking likely to host the grand final, it does highlight that if it was played in Adelaide... the premiership would be Port Adelaides to lose.
This is a term that has been thrown around a lot by the media when talking about Port Adelaide for the majority of this season (and even in 2020).
Flat Track Bullies are athletes who are able to dominate against lesser opponents and those under them in the standings. When they are facing the top tier and more difficult opponents, aren't able to have the same success.
Over the past two seasons, this has been an issue that has plagued the Power. In 2020 they lost to all of the other top four sides, only beating Richmond (in the regular season) and Geelong in the Qualifying Final. These losses amounted to three of the sides four for the entire year (with the other coming against 6th place St Kilda).
In 2021 Port Adelaide was appearing to have a similar season. In their first four matches against a top-five side, they were unsuccessful in being able to win. There only other loss for the season came against West Coast, who were appearing like a finals contender at the time. Port did slightly change the narrative, however, winning their past two matches against top-level opposition.
These past two seasons however optimise the saying Flat Track Bullies. Against weaker opposition, they are unbeatable and showcase their exceptional talent and ball movement. When playing against other top sides, cracks can start to appear and they can be vulnerable.
Having lost to all three sides left in the competition, their oppositions will enter a matchup knowing they have the formula to win. They will also have some degree of confidence that they will be able to come away with a victory, especially when away from Adelaide.
While their past two victories are beginning to help change the flat track bully narrative, the Power still has to win two more matches against difficult opponents. Only time will tell whether the Power will be able to change public perception, or will suffer a similar fate to 2020.
Over the next two games, we will see if the Power will be victorious, or keep the flat track bully label for another season.
Geelong is a team that has talent all over the ground. They possess some elite defenders and midfielders, but this isn't uncommon amongst the remaining sides. What distinguishes Geelong is their two-headed forward combination.
Of the remaining sides, only one team has any player on the list to win the Coleman Medal. Geelong not only has one of those players, but they also have two. Those two medals have also been in the past three seasons.
While Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron haven't played a full season together, they have shown flashes throughout the year which has been scintillating to watch. Both forwards have averaged over 2.5 goals per game for the season. Injuries and absences have been the only thing stopping these two from running havoc throughout the league.
Both forwards provide a strong lead-up target going into 50, while also capable of taking a contested mark. Geelong had the 2nd most marks inside 50 (12.9) per game, with Cameron and Hawkins making up 5.5 of those grabs.
They also manage to share the ball around with other forwards and generates plenty of opportunity for teammates. Both Cameron and Hawkins average over seven score involvements per game.
Having the two best forwards left is a significant advantage for the Cats, and will also cause headaches for opposition defenders.
For example, Hawkins was on fire last week against GWS kicking five in the elimination final. He also recently kicked four against the Demons in their round 23 loss. Jeremy Cameron kicked two goals in both of those matches but took the lead in other matches throughout the year. Against Port Adelaide in round 13, he booted five of his own goals and had 6 against the reigning premiers earlier in the season.
In any given game either of these two forwards could kick a bag of goals. Their opposition will have to be flexible and versatile enough to focus on whoever is being most damaging during that match. It is a scary prospect that one of those two players won't be facing the opposition's best defenders in the match.
Even the stacked Melbourne backline can struggle against Cameron and Hawkins. May will obviously take one of the pair, but Lever is best utilised as a player who can take intercepts and play off his man. Against either of these two forwards that could be a recipe for disaster and lead to a big haul of goals for one of the Geelong forwards.
With Richmond's domination over the past four years, it has been difficult to make it through to the Grand Final. Of the remaining four sides, only Geelong has had any recent grand finals experience.
While not winning a grand final since 2011, the Cats have been in with a chance throughout the past decade. Due to this, their players have been given plenty of finals experience throughout that time.
Of current active players, Geelong has six of the most experienced 11 players when it comes to finals. Joel Selwood, Tom Hawkins, Isaac Smith, Gary Rohan, Mitch Duncan, and Patrick Dangerfield have all appeared in 22 or more finals matches.
Mark Blicavs, Cameron Guthrie, Lachie Henderson, Sam Menegola, Jake Kolodjashnij, and Zach Tuohy are also in the top 30 of finals played amongst active players.
No other club left in the finals even has one player within the top 30.
This does give Geelong a distinct advantage over its competitors. Finals are different from the home-and-away season, with the pressure and expectations increasing the further you progress. As the finals go on, the Cat's advantage increases with their experience of playing in those big moments.
The Bulldogs are the only other club to have achieved grand finals success over the past decade, but their list is significantly different from the underdog story of 2016. They have also had fleeting success since, having not returned to the grand final.
Along with total finals experience, they are also the only club remaining to taste defeat in a grand final. Last year's result has given them further motivation and hunger in order to go one better than 2020. Other clubs haven't felt the pain of losing in the grand final and having to watch your opponents be awarded their premiership medals.
While some of the other clubs might have some bigger stars, none of them have endured the battles that Geelong has gone through. This finals experience will serve them greatly as other clubs face the expectations of millions of viewers watching and cheering around the globe.
While the defense has been one of the cornerstones of Geelong's success since 2007, cracks are starting to show in back six. From the outside, things appear solid for the cats. They kept their opposition to the 2nd lowest score (63.3) per game. When you start to look further, however, the defense does have some glaring flaws.
Geelong's game style has hidden a lot of those issues throughout the season. They control the pace of the game and are high possession team. They lead the league in kicks, disposals, and marks while being in the top two of kicks and disposals against. By controlling the tempo, they have been able to keep opposition scores down.
Since the injury to their best defender Tom Stewart, some of those issues have been exposed. Despite having Stewart being in the top ten of intercepts for the league, the Cats are still last in the competition in that category with 63.8 per game. Without him, they fall even further behind.
The low number of intercepts has hurt their ability to rebound the ball from 50 quickly and efficiently. They are also 3rd last in rebound 50s, which ranks them below all other finalists. This not only adds pressure onto their defenders but slows down the play. Doing this allows their opponents to set up their defensive structures behind the play.
Geelong's next best defender is Mark Blicavs, who has bounced between the backline and ruck over the past few years. With Rhys Stanley having inconsistent form throughout his career, there is no guarantee he will continue his recent success over the next two weeks. If he starts to have no impact on the game or needs to be rested then Chris Scott often has to put Blicavs back in the ruck.
While Scott might not consider making the switch full-time, the absence of Stewart makes it a difficult decision. The situation often comes up where he has to make a sacrifice in either the ruck or defense.
Lachie Henderson is the Cats' fullback and has taken the number one forward in recent weeks. Two weeks ago when the Cats played the Power, he was manned up on Charlie Dixon. Dixon and the rest of the Power forwards took control of the game and created many unsettling moments for the Cats defence. Henderson and his other defenders turned the ball over or made multiple mistakes that lead directly to Power goals.
The defensive issues can be felt all around the ground, however, with tackling pressure being an issue for the club. The Cats also average the lowest number of tackles per game out of the finalists, completing 56.4 per game. This also includes the tackles inside forward 50 having 9.6 per game, meaning they are the only club to have less than 10 per game left in the finals.
Against the premier midfielders that Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and Melbourne all possess, the Geelong defence won't have the same reprieve that they are used to. Against Port Adelaide in the first week of the finals, the Cats lost the midfield battle which resulted in the Power hitting the scoreboard and producing a large lead.
While routinely playing in finals, the Cat's success from 2007-2011 hasn't carried over to the remainder of the decade. After winning in 2011, the Cats have struggled to find continuous success, with 2020 being the only season to make the Grand Final.
Over that span, Geelong has played in 21 games. Their record is 7-14 for those matches.
In the finals, the games get tougher and the opposition has had more time and focus on planning around stopping your game. While Geelong isn't always the highest-scoring team in the competition, in finals their slow and methodical ball movements impede their ability to generate scoreboard pressure.
What this has resulted in is Geelong struggling to kick a winning score. Over this same span of games, Geelong has only kicked more than 80 points in just nine of their 21 matches. They have also only managed to score above 100 on two occasions.
While the Cats have been able to win a few of these matches, it does demonstrate the negative side of their high possession game style. When games are close and low scoring, it gives their opponents hope and also the ability to catch back up quickly.
One of the best examples of this was last year's grand final. Geelong had all the momentum and had the game in their hands throughout the first half. The Cats were unable to convert that to a large margin only leading by 15 at halftime. All it took was some Richmond (and Dustin Martin) magic to blow the game open and then the game was lost.
The Cats are the only remaining team with such a large finals record because of their consistency throughout the 2010s and the age of their list. Geelong has the oldest list in the league with an average age of 25.4 years. Melbourne's average age is 24.6, Port Adelaides is 24.4 and the Bulldogs is 24.7.
The age difference is even larger when you look at the Cat's reliance on older players. Shaun Higgins, Joel Selwood, Tom Hawkins, Isaac Smith, Zach Tuohy, Lachie Henderson, Patrick Dangerfield, Rhys Stanley, Mark Blicavs, Gary Rohan, and Mitchell Duncan are all over 30 and likely playing on the weekend.
Most of these players have been a part of the club throughout a large portion of these disappointing seasons.
With the age profile of the club and the recent record, it will be a challenge for Geelong to be the premiers. They are also playing with borrowed time as each year their core players get one year older and closer to retirement.
To come away with the premiership they will likely have to beat two teams that were higher on the ladder. To do this they will have to have more success than the current 33% strike rate in finals since their last premiership. Otherwise, Geelong will end their year with a 15th loss in finals since 2011.
The Bulldogs have been here before. It was only five years ago when the Bulldogs did the impossible. For the first time since the current top eight system, a team from outside the top four managed to win the premiership.
The Bulldogs thrived in 2016 by planning fearless football and using their exceptional, yet still young at the time, midfield to overpower their opponents. This year's team is a more talented and cohesive group than the Dogs of 2016. They also have the second most finals experience yet nearly as youthful as the Demons and the Power. 2021 would be a return to their successful formula of sweeping through the finals and winning from the bottom four.
What the Bulldogs did in 2016 was something that has rarely occurred since the league's inception. In the history of VFL/AFL history, only Adelaide in 1998 and Melbourne in 1900 have also managed to win the premiership from outside the top four.
Finishing outside the top four comes with some obvious downsides. The challenges presented to a team in that position are usually too difficult to overcome. A team needs to play near flawlessly for the entire finals series to even have a chance of making a historic run. They also will be the away team for (at least) the final three games of the finals and play four weeks straight without a break.
The Western Bulldogs this year however find themselves in a unique situation. Firstly, the coach and leadership group of this team have beliefs. They played the best football of the past five years in this situation. Using the underdog idea, they were able to pile on four successive victories in the finals to win the premiership cup. Due to changes in the finals system, they still remain the only side to win four matches in the same finals series.
Another usual issue is the travel and playing away. Their match against Port Adelaide this weekend will be the only match remaining that the Bulldogs play where they are a genuine away team. In a normal season, a matchup against Melbourne of Geelong at the MCG would be a disadvantage because of the larger fanbases and few games that the Dogs play at the venue. This year, however, they will be playing on neutral territory in Western Australia where there isn't the same amount of fan support. Even being the underdog of the finals could provide them added local support in WA, as football fans would be more receptive to supporting the Dogs than the Demons or Cats.
The Western Bulldogs are also unlike most teams that fall out of the top four. For the majority of the season, the Dogs found themselves in the top two even finding themselves on the top of the ladder at the end of round 20. Three successive disappointing losses to end the season however meant that they missed out on the double chance by 0.5 percentage points. It is debatable that the Dogs when they are up and about are one of the two best teams in the league.
Lastly, the changes to the schedule will benefit the Bulldogs. If victorious against the Power then they will have a week off before the grand final. That will give them extra time to nurse and rest from some of the injuries but could also be a detriment to their opposition. If the Demons were to also make it to the grand final, they would end up playing two games in four weeks before the last game in September. This break could impact the Demons coming out of the blocks a bit slow. Giving the Dogs a sniff in the finals could be a recipe for failure for their opponents.
While some could see it as a disadvantage, I don't know if the Bulldogs would see it that way. Feeling like they have something to prove and that they are hunting down their opposition is exactly the way that the Dogs like to play. Half of the clubs' premierships have come from outside the top four, so why couldn't they do it again?
A graphic on the Reddit thread 'VFL/AFL Final Ladder Position Graph', shows the ladder position of each season while highlighting in yellow the eventual premiers.
The Western Bulldogs possess a midfield group that would be the envy of all 17 other clubs. At other clubs, these midfielders could be in the top two players but are fighting for a starting position at the Bulldogs. The club is extremely deep in the midfield with at least six A - high B-grade midfielders on their list. They include:
Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae, Bailey Smith, Tom Liberatore, Josh Dunkley and Adam Treloar.
The skipper has put together another excellent season making a strong case to be the best player in the league. While not having the same Grand Final success as Dustin Martin, his resume holds up against him in nearly all other categories.
The Bont has always seen plenty of the ball and has great skills and vision. This year with such a stacked midfield, he has spent more time up forward. This has paid dividends for the Dogs with Bontempelli averaging over a goal a game. Adding goal kicking to his skillset has what has elevated his own game, and the potential of the Bulldogs.
Jack Macrae is another star who has broken records in 2021. He now holds the record for most consecutive 30+ disposal games. He also has close to a 50/50 split of handballs to kicks which he hasn't been that close to since 2015.
Bailey Smith is a match-winner as seen on Saturday nights thrilling match against the Lions. He is an electric and exciting player who provides a spark in the midfield brings pace into the middle. The boy with 'ice in his veins' nearly singlehandedly won the match for the Dogs in the last quarter and stood up when the Bont was down with an injury.
Tom Liberatore is the engine in the middle, that allows everyone else to play the way they do. He does the grunt work and gets the ball out of tight contests that allow the other excellent ball uses to move the ball forward. He leads the club and the league with 7.8 clearances a game. He is one of the most important players on the Dogs list. This was evident against Melbourne earlier this season when he was tagged by James Harmes. Doing so allowed Melbourne to take control of the inside ball and win the star-powered midfield battle.
Close mates Josh Dunkley and Adam Treloar have been hampered with injuries in 2021. Both have managed to get healthy at the right time of the season. Dunkley has been forced to spend more time in the defensive half and is still managing to have a positive impact on winning. Treloar has settled into his spot on the wing but hasn't had the same impact in the second half of the year as we saw in the opening few rounds. His quiet performances have been mitigated by the rest of the star power in the midfield.
As a whole, the midfield group is elite with talent and depth that ensures that there are always strong performances from multiple players in the middle. While the potential Bont injury is scary for a Bulldogs fan, there is no side in the competition better suited to overcome missing a player of his calibre.
While possessing an elite midfield group the Bulldogs there is one area that is causing trouble for the Bulldogs. That is their tall stocks.
The absence of Stefan Martin has highlighted the club's deficiencies from the ruck position. Tim English and Lewis Young being their only other genuine ruck options has left them exposed by their opponents when given the predominant role.
The Dogs are 3rd last in the competition for hit-outs overall while being the worst of the teams that made the top eight. The firepower in the middle has helped alleviate their issues in the ruck as the dogs are still one of the competition's best stoppage sides. It does highlight one of the big weaknesses in the Dogs if Martin isn't in the team.
To win the Grand Final, the Bulldogs could have to beat out Scott Lycett and Max Gawn. Both of these ruckmen are in great form and could prove to be a handful for English and Young. Lycett's best game for the season came against the Bulldogs in round 23 where he had a season-high in hit-outs (40) and disposals (22) while Gawn had 56 hit-outs in round 19.
It is not just in the ruck where height is an issue for the Dogs. Opposition forwards are taking advantage of a size disadvantage too.
The Western Bulldog defenders are often helpless to fight off attacks from opposition forwards, with the side losing 31% of their defensive one-on-one contests. This ranks them last in the league in that category. They also are last in the competition for rebounding out of 50 with only 36 per game.
Tall forwards have proven to be a handful for the Dogs at times, with Peter Wright kicking seven goals against them in Round 21. Harry McKay and Josh Kennedy also managed to boot four apiece against the Dogs.
Josh Bruce has also suffered a season-ending injury while Jamarra Ugle-Hagan looks unlikely to make his way back into the side. This significantly reduces the Dog's firepower up forward, with Aaron Naughton being the only major tall threat down forward. Tim English has shown positives up forward, but without using him in the ruck then the Bulldogs are likely to get completely dominated in that area.
The absences have caused quite the conundrum for the Bulldogs not knowing where to play English. On the weekend Young and English combined couldn't amount to the same number of hitouts as McInnerney. Without English featuring heavily in the middle, the damage would be even greater.
While the rest of his teammates were grinding out a one-point victory against the Lions, their skipper could only watch from the sidelines. Suffering a knee injury in the latter part of the thrilling game, the Bont was unable to make his way back onto the ground.
After the game, he downplayed the injury telling Channel 7 that the injury was nothing too severe.
“It should be all right,” Bontempelli said in the post-match interview.
“Initial tests and whatnot are pretty good.
“I just landed awkwardly so I was a bit ginger initially and then the big fella fell across the leg, so rather than limp around out there probably the right thing was to interchange.”
The Bulldogs head of sports medicine Chris Bell made a statement on the Bulldogs website on Monday. He said that while Cody Weightman will miss their clash against Port Adelaide, Bontempelli is still a chance to play.
“In the last minutes of the game, Marcus landed and had his knee twisted,” Bell said.
"Scans have cleared him of any serious structural damage, but he does have some symptoms related to the injury."
“We’ll work with Marcus through the back end of this week to determine his availability.”
While the updates are looking positive, there is still going to be an injury cloud of Bontempelli this week. Being the captain and such an important player for his side, his absence would be a massive blow for the Bulldogs.
The last time that Bontempelli missed time for an injury was in 2018, having had an excellent run of injuries since then. The Dogs haven't had to gameplan around his absence for a while, with the player MVP difficult to replace. Trying to fill the void he leaves is difficult to do due to the all-around impact that he has on the game.
Bailey Smith is the player likely to step up for Bontempelli if he was absent, with Dunkley and/or Treloar having to spend more time in the middle replacing Smith. Doing this would still reduce their scoring output, which is more noticeable due to Weightman's concussion.
With a tough matchup this weekend against the Power, the Bulldogs will need a fully healthy Bontempelli to really push Port Adelaide to the limits. If the Bont is missing any of his pace, strength, or ability to hit the scoreboard over the weekend it could prove to be too much for even the Bulldogs star midfield to overcome.