Latest AFL News

Finals contenders race: Who will take the final two spots in the eight?

The race to sneak into the finals has never been so wide open.

Published by
Aidan O'Carroll

In another AFL season that has been filled with uncertainties and changes due to COVID, it is only fitting that fans can expect the unexpected.

After the bye rounds that concluded at the cessation of Round 14, the top eight looked pretty set.

Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs were flying, Geelong and Brisbane rounded out the top four, and few would think that Port Adelaide, Sydney, West Coast or Richmond would drop out of the eight come season's end given the talent that those teams possess and the form that they were in.

However, fast forward to the conclusion of Round 17, and the eight is anything but set.

West Coast and Richmond have both hit serious form slumps, and sides outside the eight such as Fremantle, GWS, St. Kilda and Essendon are all starting to hit their strides as they have all started to make a legitimate push for finals.

Check out below as we analyse the sides from 7th to 12th in terms of strength of schedule, form, and see who is the most likely two teams to round out the eight come finals time.


Fremantle

The Dockers have shot up to 7th spot on the ladder after winning three of their past five matches against Gold Coast, Collingwood and Hawthorn.

West Coast and Richmond losing their past three-games helps justify their position.

Remaining schedule: [sixth easiest run home]

PERTH, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 28: Andrew Brayshaw of the Dockers celebrates a goal during the 2021 AFL Round 02 match between the Fremantle Dockers and the GWS Giants at Optus Stadium on March 28, 2021 in Perth, Australia. (Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

The Dockers have a tough run home with four of the six remaining games against opponents in the eight at the moment. Statistically teams need to win at least 12-games to make finals, so Fremantle will have to win at least four more games.

It will be a tough ask to achieve this, as there no games I can confidently say that they will win. I have them finishing outside the eight based on their tough run home.

Verdict: Won't make finals

 

West Coast

The West Coast Eagles have hit a major form slump since the conclusion of the bye rounds, with the Perth powerhouse getting smashed by the Western Bulldogs at home, by Sydney at Kardinia Park, before losing to the current wooden spooners in North Melbourne by 10-points at home.

Remaining schedule: [third easiest run home]

PERTH, AUSTRALIA - JULY 12: Oscar Allen of the Eagles celebrates after scoring a goal during the round 17 AFL match between the West Coast Eagles and the Collingwood Magpies at Optus Stadium on July 12, 2019 in Perth, Australia. (Photo by Will Russell/AFL Photos via Getty Images )

Their current form suggests that they won't remain in the eight much longer, but they have such great talent across their squad that they are capable of turning things around quick.

I believe they will win at least three more games against St. Kilda, Collingwood and Fremantle, and are every chance to beat Adelaide, but they do struggle away from home.

Verdict: Will make finals in eighth

 

St Kilda

The Saints have shot back into finals contention after winning their past three-games, including a big win over premiership fancies in Brisbane. They are in good form, but will have to overcome a poor percentage of 86.9% if they want to make the finals.

Remaining schedule: [Fifth easiest run home]

BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA - AUGUST 10: Jack Steele of the Saintshandballs during the round 11 AFL match between the St Kilda Saints and the Geelong Cats at The Gabba on August 10, 2020 in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)

The Saints have a tough run home and I can see them winning against Carlton and Fremantle, but with five of the six opponents that they face already residing in the eight, as well as their poor percentage, I can't see them making the finals.

Verdict: Won't make finals

 

Greater Western Sydney

The Giants are very hard to read at the moment due to their inconsistency. The last three-weeks they have lost to the struggling Hawks, then beat the ladder leading Demons, then lost to the struggling Suns.

They'll need to find some consistency if they want to make the eight.

Remaining schedule: [Fourth easiest run home]

CANBERRA, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 08: Brent Daniels of the GWS scores a goal during the 2019 JLT Community Series AFL match between the Greater Western Sydney Giants and the Adelaide Crows at UNSW Canberra Oval on March 08, 2019 in Canberra, Australia. (Photo by Tracey Nearmy/Getty Images)

As it is hard to tip GWS due to their inconsistency, it is hard to say whether they will make finals or not.

They have the talent to do so, and their draw helps separate themselves from the teams around them, but they'll have to beat the teams around them in Richmond, Essendon and Carlton to make the eight.

Verdict: Won't make finals

 

Essendon

The Bombers have been an exciting team to watch this season, and are a dark horse to make the finals. Will need to win most games from here to make the finals, however, they have the ability to do it.

Remaining schedule: [Easiest run home]

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 03: Jake Stringer of the Bombers celebrates a goal with Darcy Parish of the Bombers during the 2021 AFL Round 03 match between the Essendon Bombers and the St Kilda Saints at Marvel Stadium on April 03, 2021 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

The Bombers have the easiest run home out of all the teams vying for position in the eight, and they have the capabilities to win all of these games. They'll have to win at least five of the six games and hope for results to go their way with the teams around them on the ladder.

Verdict: Will make finals in seventh

 

Richmond

The reigning premiers have their own destiny in their own hands.

Four weeks ago, everyone would've had them making the finals, but after four straight losses, it is looking unlikely.

Remaining schedule: [second easiest run home]

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - SEPTEMBER 20: Dustin Martin of the Tigers celebrates after the final siren during the 2019 AFL Second Preliminary Final match between the Richmond Tigers and the Geelong Cats at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on September 20, 2019 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Richmond's run home looked pretty good for them, but their recent form makes it hard for them. I'm still backing in the reigning premiers to overcome their form slump, but making the eight will be a tough ask now.

Verdict: Won't make finals

Published by
Aidan O'Carroll