Where do we draw the line between success and failure for each AFL club in 2024?
Every club faces different challenges, has different expectations, and are on different trajectories each season.
Some teams have the simple equation of making finals or winning the flag. Others may need to show they can perform in September, or challenge for the eight without the requirement of making it.
What should be expected of Melbourne after an off-season of drama? Is it premiership or bust for Carlton? Could the Bulldogs' pass mark be the difference between keeping or losing Luke Beveridge?
See what we think below...
Pass: Make/win a final
While they are the third youngest list in the comp, they are entering their fifth year of the Matthew Nicks rebuild.
Everyone acknowledges the blatant misfortune of missing finals in last year's campaign, but it's now time to lock themselves in the eight and open their premiership window for the next half-decade.
Pass: Premiership
Like Hawthorn from 2010-2012, the Lions have finally completed their finals apprenticeship beginning in 2019 and culminating in their first Grand Final appearance since 2004.
Adding Tom Doedee to the backline, plus experience and maturity to young cubs Will Ashcroft, Jaspa Fletcher, Keidean Coleman and others, means it's time for Brisbane to cash in with a premiership.
Pass: Grand Final
We have seen what we needed to see, and their best may be better than expected. That's not the question with Carlton, their vice is the capacity to perform well consistently under duress.
Pressure does strange things to this club, so legitimate premiership credentials and expectations make them the most watchable team of 2024.
Pass: Premiership
The limit for this club is unknown, they boast the most experienced list in the competition but are only two years into the tenure with their generational combination of Craig McRae & Nick Daicos.
Some of their crucial premiership heroes are approaching the end of their careers and will not be easily replaced, but as the reigning premier, 'Fly's Pies are in the flag-winning run this year.
Pass: Make finals
A club's on-field performance often reflects the stability of the off-field environment.
Last year saw the Bombers showcase an improved style under coach Brad Scott, but reveal the same fragility under pressure that has plagued the club and its management for over a decade.
Another year without a finals berth suddenly puts Scott in the hot seat after being brought in to save the club.
Pass: Make finals
A first-round finals exit wouldn't be considered a grand success, but it's probably a pass mark given Fremantle's tumultuous 2023 calendar year.
A 14th-placed finish following a semi-final appearance in the season prior, before a poor trade and draft period over summer has left Justin Longmuir with a downgraded list and potentially coaching for his career at Fremantle.
Pass: Make finals
After a quiet off-season, who knows what to expect from a Geelong side entering 2024 with the second oldest list in the competition and a ceiling as unknown as their floor.
Questions about their ability to cope without Joel Selwood remain open, but who would be shocked if they finish top four and challenge for another flag this year?
Pass: Make finals
This one is simple.
It's their first year under Damien Hardwick with a plethora of top-end talent growing into their prime years.
Now is the time for Gold Coast to take advantage of a friendly fixture and stake their claim amongst the big boys of the competition.
Pass: Preliminary final
While they are showing similar signs to Collingwood of the last two years, a grand final appearance is a hefty pass mark for a side so fresh into a new tenure.
Ideally, they finish top four and take that step further with a preliminary final victory, though a tight loss to Brisbane at the Gabba or Carlton at the ‘G in the penultimate stage would be hard to condemn too harshly.
Pass: Escape bottom 4
While a top 14 finish is nothing to dream about for most teams, it would be a step in the right direction for a Hawks side still years away from flag contention.
The Hawks are one of only three teams probably not expecting to play finals this year, assuming Richmond, Essendon, Fremantle and St Kilda are optimistic. Anything above a bottom four finish places the Hawks well ahead of their competition moving forward.
Pass: Preliminary final
The quality and experience of this list has many pundits stapling the ‘premiership or bust' label to Melbourne.
In fairness, given the past two seasons of perpetual drama, scandals, trade rumours and alleged mismanagement at the top, a 2024 premiership would be one of the great comeback stories in recent AFL history.
A preliminary final appearance would at least show they have remedied their September woes with their first finals victory in three years.
Pass: Escape bottom two/win five games
North just need to show the competition that this midfield is truly one to watch for the next decade, find a threat forward of centre beyond Nick Larkey and show some capacity to hold up defensively without star personnel in the back six.
Five wins falls just short of doubling their 2023 tally and is achievable with two victories potentially coming from matches with West Coast alone.
Pass: Preliminary final
While they are somewhat accustomed to preliminary final exits in recent years, Port Adelaide need to once again show they can get there before they're considered a genuine flag threat.
Their back six is still limited and susceptible to being exposed by the power forwards of the competition. Coach Ken Hinkley once again finds himself in a spot where no one expects premiership success, yet anything short of a grand final appearance increases the pressure on him.
Pass: Challenge for finals
The departure of Damien Hardwick, Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt has left Adem Yze in a tough spot entering 2024.
They have the fifth oldest list in the competition with a heavier reliance on veterans Dustin Martin, Dion Prestia, Tom Lynch, Nick Vlastuin, Dylan Grimes and Kamdyn McIntosh than on youngsters Josh Gibcus, Tyler Sonsie, Samson Ryan and Noah Cumberland.
A finals appearance is a clear success but Tiger fans should hope their side can steal some upset victories throughout the season and challenge for a spot in the eight.
Pass: Make finals
The Saints are the expected slider heading into 2024 after achieving overs with a home-final exit last season.
Their midfield still lacks the X-factor fans have begged for, though the presumed development of young guns Mitch Owens, Marcus Windhager and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, just to name a few, could potentially keep them in the finals race in Ross Lyon's second year of the new tenure.
Pass: Preliminary final
After suffering the same 2023 fate as the Saints, Sydney are the expected risers heading into 2024 with the vital additions of Brodie Grundy, Taylor Adams and James Jordon, adding to the inevitable improvements of young stars Errol Gulden, Chad Warner, Logan McDonald, Braeden Campbell and others.
Don't be surprised by another top four finish for John Longmire as the Swans look to contend once again.
Pass: Avoid the wooden spoon
The best-case scenario for the Eagles seems to be a five-win season and confirmation that Harley Reid is indeed the next big thing while other youngsters also show improvement.
They are expected to be the league's cellar-dwellers for another couple of seasons as they farewell the remaining premiership heroes from yesteryear, so any sort of rise up the ladder this year is a step forward.
Pass: Win a final
If this off-season of vast change results in another bottom 10 finish or measly first-round finals exit, it may spell the end for one of Luke Beveridge or Chris Grant at the Bulldogs.
While the star power on this list may be overstated, it is there and still improving with age. There are no excuses left for this side not to finish top four and feature in one of the final two weeks of the season.