North Melbourne Kangaroos

Four trade scenarios for North Melbourne’s Pick 1

Could one of these four packages see Pick 1 swap hands for the first time in over 20 years?

Published by
Mitch Keating

North Melbourne enter their second straight off-season with the wooden spoon in one hand and the first selection at the National Draft in the other.

2021 saw the Roos recruit Jason Horne-Francis out of South Adelaide with Pick 1, a selection that was subject to stunning trade offers from Adelaide and Richmond.

North stood firm to baulk at any external advances, no matter the wealth of picks on offer for their sole selection. But should an enticing package be on the table the Roos are seen to be more likely to work through negotiations for Pick 1 this year.

Should the Roos look to move their top selection, there are certainly a handful of scenarios that could see them gain multiple draft picks, or even players, in return.

Pick 1 hasn't been traded since 2001, with Fremantle parting with their place atop the draft board to lure Trent Croad and Luke McPharlin from Hawthorn, who received Picks 20 and 36 on top of the opening pick for the 2001 National Draft, where they were able to select four-time premiership great Luke Hodge.

Now it's unlikely we'll see a pair of packages swap hands like the Dockers and Hawks did 21 years ago, but there are several scenarios that the Roos could ponder.

Here we weigh up four scenarios that could see North Melbourne depart with Pick 1 for the 2022 National Draft.

SEE ALSO: Five trade targets for North Melbourne to consider

Scenario 1

Pick swap - Gold Coast Suns

Sydney are currently the only club that holds two first-round selections, having acquired Melbourne's opening pick following several trades during the off-season of 2021.

The combination of the two selections won't be enough to entice the Roos, but Sydney are unlikely to be the sole club with at least a pair of picks in the first round come draft night.

With the Suns now resigned to beginning negotiations with Adelaide in a deal that will send forward Izak Rankine back to South Australia, the Carrara club are destined to pocket the Crows' 2022 first-round selection currently priced at Pick 5.

While other assets are likely to swap hands in the deal, the end result is almost guaranteed to see the Suns hold two top 10 selections for this year's draft intake, a hand that is sure to be of interest to the Roos.

As raised in June this year, North Melbourne may be best placed to split their first selection given the midfield-heavy top-end of this year's draft class. The Roos have used their past six first-round picks on onballers and are now needing to look toward key-position prospects.

Instead of opting for the best player available and recruiting what will likely be another midfielder, North Melbourne could pull in the best key defender and one of the best key forwards of the same draft crop.

While the sky-rocketing talent of GWV Rebels forward Aaron Cadman could be off the board come Pick 5, fellow Victorian Matthew Jefferson is likely to still be up for grabs.

Jefferson could still be free for the Roos' taking at Pick 7 (the Suns' own selection), while top-rated key defender Jedd Busslinger is also seen in the 5-10 pick mix.

A trade of Pick 1 for Picks 5 & 7 between the Roos and Suns would help North's recruiting plan while also giving the Suns a handy rise up the order, with maybe another later selection or future pick also heading to the Queensland club.

Scenario 2

Player package - Fremantle

The Dockers loom as one of the busiest clubs for this off-season.

Not only do they have their sights heavily set on Melbourne ruckman Luke Jackson, but the Cockburn club may need to offload several off-contract players to accommodate the 20-year-old's anticipated pay packet to land in purple on a long-term deal.

Fremantle's interest in Jackson has seemingly opened the door for rival clubs to come calling on the likes of Blake Acres, Rory Lobb and Griffin Logue.

The latter of the trio has already been linked to Arden Street this off-season as the Roos begin their off-season planning under new coach Alastair Clarkson.

While off-contract and potentially considering a move to the east coast, the Dockers are still set to demand a decent return for the Swan Districts product, who they spent a top 10 pick on in 2016.

Then there's Acres, who like Logue isn't a free agent and will be requiring a trade to find himself a new home should he move on to a third club.

Carlton are understood to be leading the race for the ex-Saint, however the Roos are again seen as keen suitors for the wingman and could be tempted to work under Alastair Clarkson.

PERTH, AUSTRALIA - JUNE 05: Griffin Logue and Blake Acres of the Dockers celebrates a goal during the 2022 AFL Round 12 match between the Fremantle Dockers and the Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium on June 05, 2022 in Perth, Australia. (Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

The Roos could see their own outside midfield stocks depleted this year, with Geelong hunting Bailey Scott, while Jed Anderson's future remains unclear beyond this year.

Should both find themselves leaving the blue and white behind, the Roos' interest in Acres should only ascend further.

The combined value of Acres and Logue isn't worth Pick 1, but a package including the pair and potentially other draft assets could balance the scales. The Roos have also been linked to Dockers midfielder Darcy Tucker, who could be added into the trade mix.

With the Dockers also needing to acquire Jackson, holding Pick 1 would only aid their negotiations with Melbourne, who will demand a war chest for their prized youngster. Perhaps a three-way trade could arise between Fremantle, Melbourne and North Melbourne?

Scenario 3

Pick and player package - GWS Giants

Like the Dockers, the Giants have also gained the spotlight ahead of the sign and trade period with a potential 'exodus' on the way.

Now any interest in star duo Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper would only see the Roos arrive late to the party, with the hard-nosed duo tipped to join Richmond and Geelong respectively should they depart Western Sydney.

But that's not to say North Melbourne's assumed wealth of salary space can't sway one or the other.

Taranto's venture to Punt Road reads more likely than not, while plenty is still needing to play out at Kardinia Park for the Cats to get their hands on Hopper. So could the Roos look to cause a stir in Geelong's pursuit of the North Ballarat product?

Now let's say the Roos convince Hopper into a preference of stripes over hoops, how do the next steps, and the inclusion of Pick 1, come to fruition?

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MAY 15: Lachie Whitfield, Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto of the Giants look dejected after losing the round 9 AFL match between the Richmond Tigers and the Greater Western Sydney Giants at Marvel Stadium on May 15, 2021 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

The Giants could easily lean into a rebuild with the departures of Taranto and Hopper, with no hand better for a list flip than the opening pick of the draft.

So we have our two main pieces in the trade, but the Giants will be needing to fork up more to secure Pick 1.

The Roos' already reported interest in Tanner Bruhn is sure to come into the calculations. Would the pairing of two former first-rounders in Hopper and Bruhn be enough to satisfy North Melbourne? Perhaps some steak knives and later selections would be thrown in the mix.

Scenario 4

Aggressive big fish pursuit - Carlton

Perhaps the wildcard option of the four scenarios, but the Roos must be brave if they think they can lure a big fish in a straight swap for Pick 1.

Across the competition, there are maybe 20-25 players that might be of this value, none of which are off-contract for 2023.

But a 'pre-agent' option could be there for the taking, with the Roos offering up their prized pick for someone of Harry McKay's stature.

North Melbourne have been crying out for a key-forward to pair with Nick Larkey, and the enticing thought of the McKay brothers in Harry and Ben bookending Alastair Clarkson's lineup is one that would have the Arden Street side suddenly seen as a top eight chance as early as next season.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 24: Harry McKay of the Blues celebrates a goal during the 2022 AFL Round 02 match between the Western Bulldogs and the Carlton Blues at Marvel Stadium on March 24, 2022 In Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Now obviously the Blues aren't in a window to be moving on one half of their attacking twin tower pairing of Mckay and Charlie Curnow, but would they consider the concept of bringing in Pick 1 just 12 months before McKay hits free agency.

The situation would only gain a pulse if the Blues were of the thought McKay was a chance to part at the end of next year, with the 2021 Coleman Medal winner already understood to be gaining significant interest and offers from other clubs.

The Roos may just be one of those clubs in the mix for the two-metre-tall forward, and if so must be considering a godfather offer for McKay in the form of parting with Pick 1.

Published by
Mitch Keating