Ambition and self-improvement.

Whether you are a butcher, a baker, or a candlestick maker, these are the often elusive ingredients required for progression in any field. So elusive are they that the ever-growing self-help book industry was valued globally at more than $10 billion just four years ago.

Try as we might, we just can't seem to help ourselves.

But while doltish titles such as 'You Are a Badass' and 'Awaken the Giant Within' are purchased by the truckload, their lux-living authors show only a tenuous grasp of the themes when compared to literary giants, whose wares are on display elsewhere instore.

Down in the fiction section, or over with the classics, in any good bookshop, you are sure to find a copy of Charles Dickens' best-seller, 'Great Expectations'.

While also acting as a commentary on Britain's 19th-century social classes, the themes of ambition and self-improvement are ingrained in the prose, with the moral of the story being while money can advance you down the road, it can't buy your character. You'll have to find that yourself.

And though few lanky left-footed footballers show up anywhere in Dickens' canon, the themes covered by the peaks and troughs commensurate with any of his works can often be found playing out inside the boundary line.

Harry McKay's recent struggles act as a perfect case in point.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 23: Harry McKay of the Blues looks dejected after a loss during the 2023 AFL Round 06 match between the Carlton Blues and the St Kilda Saints at Marvel Stadium on April 23, 2023 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

 

Already a Coleman medallist by the age of 23, McKay has become a lightning rod for criticism of late for committing the cardinal sin of inconsistency, with punters and pundits joining the pile-on, claiming the big Blue's woes are of his own making.

With 11 goals and 9 behinds on the board to start the season, the raw numbers show that McKay is ahead of the ledger. However, dig a bit deeper, or take any time to watch the 25-year-old's indecisive routine, and these numbers begin to skew quickly.

While McKay may have converted 55 per cent of his scoring shots into goals, once his eight shots that have failed to register any score are taken into account, this once-healthy marker cascades back to 32.9 per cent.

Most talking heads put this down to McKay's choice to snap for goal from unconventional locations, howling that the former first-round draftee is operating like a golfer without a caddy. But once these stats are cross-referenced, this contention loses all footing.

In fact, the inverse is true.

McKay's ambition is clear: put the ball through the big sticks as many times and as often as possible. It's the means of self-improvement that have muddied.

Unlike any of the game's greatest spearheads, it is McKay's most conventional kick that lets him down, time and again.

Take any time to watch McKay and you will quickly find that his snap is the most lethal weapon in his arsenal. The task of splitting the big sticks becomes a worry when he drops the ball straight.

Wheel of Misfortune

Since debuting in Round 18 of the 2017 season, the 200cm forward has pulled on Carlton's famous monogrammed guernsey on a further 92 occasions, slotting 185 goals at 1.99 per game and converting more than 58 per cent of his scoring shots.

With a Coleman medal, a trifecta of club-goalkicking gongs on his mantel, and an All-Australian blazer on the rack, McKay has already made a sizable imprint on the competition ahead of his upcoming 100th game.

Alongside partner in his partner in crime, Charlie Curnow, McKay has the game's best defenders on red alert when Carlton presses forward.

But with the duo's individual success partnering the pain of last year in the forefront of all Navy Blue minds, the club's ravenous fanbase entered 2023 with great expectations for their pair of Coleman winners, as well as their side at large.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 23: Harry McKay (left) and Charlie Curnow of the Blues celebrate during the 2023 AFL Round 02 match between the Carlton Blues and the Geelong Cats at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on March 23, 2023 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

 

However, despite Carlton's 4-2 start, McKay is yet to click into top gear.

11 goals from seven starts is far from panic stations, but given four (36.4%) of them came against North Melbourne on Good Friday, more is expected of a forward about to enter his prime.

Whether snapping freely from a distance or forced into drop-punting the ball, McKay's mind visibly shuffles through every option each time he is at the top of his mark. With one hand on his hip, and the other flipping the ball end-on-end, in spite of his poker face, the forward is a picture of unrest.

As the Wheel of Misfortune's needle ticks, McKay often appears to rush his selection, failing to find comfort in his decision-making process during the allotted 30 seconds for each shot.

The results speak for themselves, with the Sherrin more often flying every which way but straight.

"If you're a goalkicker that keeps missing to the same spot every time, at least you can make the adjustment...Harry ain't doing that," said Fox Footy's Garry Lyon, a man who converted more than 65 percent of his 703 career scoring shots.

Yet, despite the sprays, the pots, and the sliced shots, Lyon zigged where others have zagged, labeling McKay's now-customary snap around the corner as the forward's best tool in his kit.

While playfully hounded by Coleman medallist Jonathan Brown - himself a 64.6 per cent converter - for playing the enabler, the numbers show Lyon to be the accurate one.

Right side, strong side

McKay's raw scoring numbers paint a picture of a forward converting at better-than-even odds before goal.

However, once you replay each of the Blues' scoring shots for the season, plot them on a chart, and apply flames, these raw numbers begin to become more digestible.

On a map charting distance, angle, and score, below are every one of McKay's 20 scoring shots and subsequent scores recorded between Rounds 1 and 7 of the 2023 season.

Shots from 15 metres to beyond 50 are broken into subsequent areas, as well as his shots recorded on either side of a 30-degree angle.

Sections marked in blue represent areas in which McKay has produced mixed results, with as many goals as behinds. Those in red are where he is in deficit; those in white are where he is yet to attempt a shot. The green areas are his happy hunting grounds, having scored more goals than behinds on these patches.

Without the requisite time to run the rule over all 28 shots at goal, nor access to pre-plotted maps, unfortunately, the bulk of McKay's shots that failed to register a score are still out floating in the ether.

While the picture has become clearer, further analysis is required. After all, what are the means that are helping McKay reach the end?

When placing McKay's shot selection under the microscope, further clarity is found, as like Patrick Reed or Phil Mickelson, he thrives with finesse shots rather than anything conventional, with almost twice as many total snaps recorded than drop punts.

Once again, the results speak for themselves, as the choice to go around the body has seen McKay score four-and-a-half times as many majors than with drop punts.

Goals/Behinds Scoring Shots % of Total Scoring Shots
Snaps 9.4 13 65%
Drop punts 2.5 7 35%

 

You don't need to be an Eagle Eye to note that the left-footer has a preferred side, either. A side that, for the most part, McKay's teammates routinely find him in.

Unlike the T.C Williams Titans' defensive line, Harry's strength is definitely not his left side.

Goals/Behinds Scoring Shots % of Total Scoring Shots
Left side 2.4 6 30%
Right side 9.5 14 70%

 

This preference also holds up when snapping, with McKay producing 63.6 per cent of his around-the-body goals from the right, all arising from exactly half of his total scoring shots this season.

While certainly a smaller sample, McKay's ability to stay accurate from his non-preferred side with this method must also be noted here.

Goals/Behinds Scoring Shots % of Total Scoring Shots
Left-side snaps 2.1 3 15%
Right-side snaps 7.3 10 50%

 

Exactly why the left side haunts McKay becomes clear when the next slide is placed under the lens.

7 drop punts in total, with none producing full points from his non-preferred side at least shows where his greatest area for improvement must come from.

Save for a peach from outside 50 against Adelaide in Round 5, a similar story would have been seen on the right, too.

Goals/Behinds Scoring Shots % of Total Scoring Shots
Left-side drop punts 0.3 3 15%
Right-side drop punts 2.2 4 20%

ย 

McKay may have felt the lash from those across the boundary so far this season, but there are positives to be found from this simple chart:

  • As mentioned, McKay obviously has a good rapport with those further afield, as Carlton's rebounders and midfielders continue to deliver him the ball on his preferred side.
  • A healthy 64.3 per cent of McKay's shots from the right have resulted in goals.
  • 71.4 per cent of these shots are snaps, representing 35 per cent of his total goals.

Still, there is much room for self-improvement as well.

  • While 35 per cent of McKay's scoring shots came from drop punts, only two resulted in goals - 2.5 in total.
  • Spooked, uncomfortable or otherwise, on either side of the ground, McKay attempted just three drop punts from within 40 metres of goal; none resulting in goals.

A lack of confidence almost always leads to indecisiveness and, in turn, inconsistency. However, for a locked-away key forward with a Coleman to his name, expectations on McKay to deliver this season were always going to be high.

Or should we say xPectations?

Unmet xPectations

First arising in the early-90s as a means of charting the likelihood of soccer goals scored on artificial surfaces, the concept of expected score, or xScore, has enlightened as many as it has rankled in the years since.

Honed again a decade later by Jake Ensum, Richard Pollard and Samuel Taylor in an attempt to better understand scoring possibilities at the 2002 FIFA World Cup, the trio took five factors into account in an effort to shed light on how the scoreboard would read if the same shot was repeated, again and again:

  • distance from the goal.
  • Angle from the goal.
  • The distance of the closest defender.
  • Whether or not the shot came via a cross.
  • The number of outfield players between the shot-taker and goal.

The theory has since made its way to Australian shores, fostering disciples and converts. But given the altered nature of our indigenous code, tweaks were required as a far-greater proportion of goals come from set shots and, of course, Australian Rules Football is played without gloved goalkeepers.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - AUGUST 25: Harry McKay of the Blues marks during the round 23 AFL match between the Carlton Blues and the Adelaide Crows at Etihad Stadium on August 25, 2018 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

 

While xScore still has its skeptics, as best put by Dickins himself, we should take nothing on its looks, only the evidence provided. There is no better rule.

So while charted, we can't take McKay's falters on their appearance alone, we must scrutinise them with further evidence. There is no better rule.

Thanks to the AFLxScore bot constructed by the owner of Twitter account @AFLLab, we are able to analyse the distance, angle, difficulty, and subsequent xScore of each of McKay's scoring shots across the opening seven weeks.

Simpler shots at goal are rated with a higher percentage chance of success. The simpler the shot, the higher the xScore, with scores ranging from 0 to a maximum of 6 points applicable.

Akin to the method used when analysing the world game, as per The AFL Lab, each score is calculated after taking the following factors into consideration and compared against the actual points scored from past shots taken from that approximate location.

  • Shot type & context (set shot, free shot on the run, pressured shot)
  • Kick type (drop punt, snap, dribble kick, torpedo)
  • The individual kicker
  • Left/right foot
  • Venue, and which end
  • Weather conditions
  • If the player on the mark can move

To put it simply, xScore is the probability/result of averaging out similar past shots/kicks from that particular location on the ground.

While we can now agree that McKay has a preferred foot, side of the ground, and method for splitting the sticks, what do the numbers say once we split them further?

First, let's take a look at what the spearhead is doing well.

The hits

After spilling a lasered pass, McKay buttered up, waltzing around to snap his first of the season from dead in front. With a 78 per cent chance of success, few of the 88,000 in attendance bat an eyelid when the umpire signalled full points.

It had been a hot minute since McKay had split the big sticks, but from a comfortable distance and angle on the right side of the MCG, he curled through a snap rated as a nigh-on 50/50 prospect after beating Esava Ratugolea in a wrestle.

The first of four against the Roos on what proved to be a great Friday.

Having marked unopposed inside the arc, McKay played on, slipped, and invited pressure from Aidan Corr and Aiden Bonar. Good enough to steady, McKay wheeled to hit a low left-foot checkside from the right to get his day started.

A deep clunk, a quick turn, and a second goal via a left-foot dribble from close range. Some may suggest that the 66 per cent offering from xScore here may be a little on the low side, but as McKay would prove later that afternoon, near certainties appear to mean very little to him.

Reading a Jack Silvagni shank to perfection, McKay bodied Daniel Howe from the drop of the ball, clunking and snapping for a third. While rated as his toughest shot of the Round 4 fixture, the point of contact will have had the 25-year-old breathing easy.

From an almost identical distance and angle to his lone goal against Geelong a fortnight earlier, McKay produced an identical result, snapping truly from a 50/50 standpoint.

Having earned the ire of pundits for his previous set shot sprays, McKay answered in style against Adelaide during Gather Round, sending his first drop punt through from outside the arc. If McKay is shooting from outside 40 on the right, drop punts have proven as much friend as they have foe.

This time hemmed in on the boundary after besting Jordon Butts, McKay snapped truly from the Eddie Betts Pocket, a patch of grass perfect for a left-footer with a penchant for snapping.

On a narrower angle than his long-range drop punt in the City of Churches, McKay channeled the week prior, sending an end-over-end punt from just inside the arc over the head of Dougal Howard. No prizes for guessing which side of the ground McKay was shooting from.

Despite standing at the comfortable range of 40-odd metres out, the big Blue opted to go around the body, if only to boost his xScore likelihood from a 27 in 50 chance. Given the eight-degree angle eliciting a snap from McKay, these are the types of set shots that pique the interest of skeptics.

Right-side snap, 25 metres out and on an angle better than 45 degrees, these are McKay's proverbial bread and butter. Rated a 69 per cent chance of succeeding by xScore, McKay's 11th goal of the year was his easiest conversion since his first of the season against Richmond.

Let's now look at the flip side.

The missesย 

Hindsight may be 20/20 but with the trends that have formed over the first seven weeks of the season, McKay's first miss of 2023 appears particularly stark. Having lost Noah Balta on his bolt from the goalsquare, the spearhead lined up from 33 metres out on a minor angle on his preferred side.

Despite snapping from what would become a happy hunting ground, McKay tugged the ball right, seeing a shot rated as a 69 per cent chance for maximum points go begging.

78 seconds later, McKay had earned his shot at redemption, this time further out, but on an improved angle. Again losing Balta and again receiving from Sam Docherty, the Coleman medallist opted for his first drop punt for the year, again hooking right; cursing himself as the ball landed in the gleeful Richmond cheer squad.

Again at the Punt Road end of the 'G, McKay would take - and slice - his first shot of the season from the left side of the ground. While having to kick across himself after winning a free-kick against Sam De Koning, McKay let another 60-plus per cent chance pass him by, again missing out via drop punt.

Pressed back against the arc on what would be a quiet afternoon up north, McKay, once again, missed out with a drop punt from his preferred side, again pushing a better-than-even-odds chance from right to the left.

Marking deep and lining up for his fifth Good Friday goal, McKay pulled his right-side snap after being hurried by Bailey Scott and Hugh Greenwood off the mark. Pressure, angle, and non-preferred side aside, from 22 metres out on a friendly-enough angle, key forwards should be kicking these.

Sure, no score was registered here, but with 5.77 points offered up for what appeared the most pedestrian of goals, McKay's goal line shank will likely be the highest xScore botched by a player at any stage this season.

If McKay's wayward walk-in broke inaccuracy records, this spray against the Crows was only a few suburbs back, having run away from an open goal before bringing those on the Riverbank Stand roof walk into play. Rated as an 85 per cent chance, McKay's snap proved his most unpardonable score of the season, coming on what was a particularly deflating night for the Blues.

Having led strongly to the left before marking with conviction, McKay's confidence evaporated once he turned to face goal. Caught between two minds, he asked for the direct angle twice before exhaling visibly and choosing the conventional route home. 37 out on a 35-degree slant. Money for rope, right? Wrong. The drop punt started left and stayed there.

After making Dougal Howard look like a mug with his one-handed, back-with-the-flight grab in the right-hand pocket, McKay eventually turned and snapped the pill into the post. Rated a 51 per cent chance, McKay split the difference.

As this was his only around-the-body miss from this quadrant of the ground, any notes here are unwarranted. Almost hitting the roof with another snap before the end of the term is another story, though.

Left side. Drop punt. Left out to the left. You've got the picture by now.

The verdict

Let's do it, folks. Let's go back to the tables.

When the collective difficulty of McKay's goals is considered, the oft-maligned forward can be found to have scored at better than four goals above the mean.

And even after leaving a further four goals on the board with his misses from simpler positions, McKay can lay claim to be sitting a fraction of a point ahead of breaking even.

xScore Type Actual Points Scored Total xScoreย  Offered Points Differential xScore Average Average xScore Difficulty
Goals 66 41.4 +24.6 3.8 54.9%
Behinds 9 33.3 -24.3 3.7 61.7%

 

This positivity can be rolled over to the next set of numbers, as McKay has again scored beyond the mean, almost creating an extra goal per game when snapping for goal.

Still, the fact that McKay has missed four cross-body shots with a collective difficulty of nigh-on 75 per cent will be frustrating more than just him at this point.

xScore Type Actual Points Scored Total xScore Offered Points Differential xScore Average Average xScore Difficulty
Snap goals 54 34.9 +19.1 3.9 57.1%
Snap behinds 4 17.9 -13.9 4.5 74.6%

 

As could be predicted, all the good work is quickly undone once McKay chooses to kick the ball end-over-end.

With his five drop punt misses this season, from positions rated at a collective average of beyond a 63 per cent chance of success, McKay has left more than two goals on the park.

xScore Type Actual Points Scored Total xScore Offered Points Differential xScore Average Average xScore Difficulty
Drop punt ย goals 12 6.6 +5.4 3.2 45%
Drop punt behinds 5 19 -14 3.8 63.3%

 

Take each of these differentials into equation, and the Blue sits 3.1 points behind the eight-ball in the eyes of xScore, with drop punts from clearly kickable positions, taken under mild duress, acting as his obvious kryptonite.

In short, Harry McKay has a knack for making the hard appear pedestrian and the pedestrian become painful.

But you knew that already, didn't you?

You do you, Harry

"You learn more from failure than you ever do in success," rapper Jay-Z once hypothesised.

And for the man with public housing roots, now rich enough to afford him the rights to trademark a particular shade of blue, the regurgitated phrase has proven true.

While many seem keen to - pardon the pun - sink the boot into McKay, this Blue's choice to go around the corner is actually acting as his route to salvation, not, as most are quick to cry, his damnation.

The phenomenon is not a new one, either.

13 games into last season, McKay had already scored 19.6 from snaps, representing 52.8 per cent of his total goals scored. At that stage, the then-reigning Coleman medallist was also converting a career-high 57.1 per cent of his shots, including those that landed out-on-the-full.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 24: Harry McKay of the Blues celebrates a goal during the 2022 AFL Round 02 match between the Western Bulldogs and the Carlton Blues at Marvel Stadium on March 24, 2022 In Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

 

Carlton's current scoring woes shouldn't be laid entirely at McKay's capable feet, either, with only five of the Blues' 63 goals (8 per cent) before Round 7 coming from the boot of their star-studded midfield.

This isn't to say the 25-year-old isn't without acres of space to improve in.

With the likes of the Lions, Dogs, Pies, Swans, Demons and Dons to play before the bye, McKay will need to make like the artist once known as Shawn Carter, and be on song.

The morals and themes of any Dickens novel are unlikely to help McKay find his radar, nor anything much from the broad-stroke self-help section of his local bookstore. But a look closer to his wheelhouse might, David Wheadon's 'The Art of Goalkicking', perhaps.

Or, as the kids say, you do you, Harry. The self-help industry is a crock anyway.