No. 1 draft picks: Biggest hits and misses

At approximately 8pm AEDST on Wednesday, November 27, we should know who the latest AFL number-one draft pick is.

Gold Coast hold the golden ticket with the first two picks and will consider one or perhaps both Oakleigh Chargers midfield mates Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson.

Last year's number-one pick Sam Walsh was a revelation in Carlton's midfield. Which makes us wonder how good the previous AFL/VFL number-one picks have been. Or have they?

Hits and misses - Part 2: 2002-2018

2002: Brendon Goddard had his boyhood dream of playing for Carlton dashed when The Blues' number-one and two draft picks were stripped due to salary cap breaches. "It was pretty deflating, to be honest" he told AFL.com.au in 2014. St Kilda swooped and retained Goddard for 205 games. He debuted while still in high school. "Early days I was sledged a lot," he said. "I was told I was the worst No.1 draft pick ever by a lot of people on the field." He then joined Essendon for 129 games which included a Best & Fairest award amid the ASADA saga and culminated with his infamous pretzel saga. Result: HIT

2003: Another player to join Essendon later in his career was Adam Cooney, taken at pick number one by The Western Bulldogs as a shaggy South Australian teenager. Cooney would later surprise the football world in 2008 by winning The Brownlow Medal. In 2009 he surprised Haylea McCann by proposing with a Burger Ring. Result: HIT

2004 was the year Hawthorn scored big in the draft with Jarryd Roughead, Lance Franklin and Jordan Lewis. But the number-one pick was Brett Deledio who carved out an illustrious 243 games with Richmond. They also took Richard Tambling at pick four. You can't win them all. Result: HIT

2005 sees the first number-one pick in this list still to be playing AFL today. Marc Murphy was recruited by The Blues, who also took Josh Kennedy at pick four. Once again, you can't win them all, as JJK was offloaded and promptly kicked 600 goals at West Coast. Murphy remained at Carlton through thick and thin (mostly the latter) for 268 games so far. Result: HIT

In 2006, Carlton again led the draft picks to select Bryce Gibbs, which went swimmingly well until 2016, when Gibbs announced his desire to return home to Adelaide. His wish was fulfilled in 2018 after 231 games with The Blues. At least they didn't choose the eventual pick two and 35-game Coulda-Been-Champion, Scott Gumbleton. Meanwhile, Port Adelaide got lucky, taking Robbie Gray at pick 55 and Justin Westhoff at 71. Result: HIT

2007 saw Carlton's number-one draft pick trifecta rounded out with Matthew Kruezer. The quality draft pool included names like Cotchin, Dangerfield, Rioli and Rance. The last player selected, at pick 75, was Taylor Walker. Result: HIT

In 2008, after a steady run of draft pick orders being more 'orderly', the wheels fell off somewhat. Number-one draft pick Jack Watts became the most maligned Melbourne draftee since Travis Johnstone. Top ten picks included Chris Yarran and Ty Vickery, while today's renowned names of Beams, Hannebery, Shiels, Sloane, Neville Jetta and Michael Walters didn't crack the top 25. Result: MISS

Oh Dear. If Melbourne could travel back to 2009, would they reselect Tom Scully? The talented midfielder lasted 31 games for The Dees before defecting to GWS and now Hawthorn. Melbourne's compensation picks went towards Dom Barry and Jesse Hogan. They also used their pick 2 in 2009 for Jack Trengove, while some bloke called Dustin Martin went to Richmond at pick 3. Sorry to rub it in, Dees fans, but Nate Fyfe went at pick 20, Mitch Duncan at 28 and Jack Gunston at 29. But you DID get Max Gawn at pick 34. Oh, and Jordan Gysberts at 11. Result: MISS

2010 was Gold Coast's draft induction year in which they took David Swallow with pick 1 (then Harley Bennell, Sam Day, Caddy, Prestia, Gorringe, Tom Lynch, Tape, Jeremy Taylor and Jacob Gilbee, proving some 'Days' are better than others). Swallow's current tally of 139 games has seen him rise to co-captain and at 26 years old, he has some quality upside remaining. Result: HIT

2011 was GWS's draft induction year in which they took Jonathon Patton at pick one (then Coniglio, Tyson, Hoskin-Elliott, Buntine, Haynes, Tomlinson, Sumner, Greene, Taylor Adams and Devon Smith). Future Brownlow Medallist Tom Mitchell went to rival neighbours Sydney at pick 21, Elliot Yeo to Brisbane at 30, Brad Hill to Hawthorn at 33, Lachie Neale to Freo at 58, Jarrod Witts to Collingwood at 67 and Luke Dahlhaus to Western Bulldogs at 70, proving that the concepts of number-one draft picks AND club loyalty are probably both a little overrated, if not dead. Result: MISS

2012 bucked that argument slightly with GWS's Lachie Whitfield, selected only moments before Johnathan O'Rourke and Lachie Plowman. Number-one draft pick credibility restored. Interestingly, Brodie Grundy was taken at pick 18 which West Coast had earlier swapped for Sharrod Wellingham. Result: HIT

In 2013, GWS got it right and wrong, depending how you see it. Number-one pick was Tom Boyd, number two was Josh Kelly. Rookie elevations from that draft included West Coast's Jeremy McGovern at pick 74, Adelaide's Rory Laird at 86 and Sydney's Dane Rampe at 90. Result: MISS

2014: Paddy McCartin. Uh-oh, concussi-oh. Result: MISS

2015: Jacob Weitering. Jury's still deliberating on Jacob, but a hard defender is good to find. Not the best draft pool, with its best performers being Clayton Oliver (pick four) and Josh Dunkley (25). Result: HIT?

2016: Andrew McGrath. As above - at only 21 years old, there's plenty of improvement ahead for these guys. Luke Ryan was this draft's sleeper at pick 66. Result: HIT

2017: Cameron Rayner. See above. Rayner's only just turned 20. This is the draft that saw Tim Kelly go to Geelong at pick 24. Result: HIT

2018: The selection of Sam Walsh revisited Carlton's fine form with number-one picks. Last year's draft was the first to feature over two days and it looks like being one for the ages, with a multitude of 2019 debutantes and potential future match winners. Still only 19 years old, Walsh played 22 games in his first year and averaged 25 disposals. Could be the best number-one draft pick in over a decade. Result: HIT

Conclusion

• What the last 10, 20 or even 35 years have told us is that the talents of a number-one draft pick can't be denied. But it's ultimately players' health - both physical and mental - which largely determines their levels of AFL success.
• The pressure applied to a player labelled the 'number one draft pick' only heightens expectation, not their production.
• Draft orders don't always determine outcomes. Notable gaps can occur between pick one and two, just as they can occur from pick 1 to 100. Many bonafide stars have emerged from the draft pick equivalent of nowhere.
• New millennial drafts are better than pre millennial drafts.
• Sam Walsh is scarily good.
• This month's draft picks could be anything. Or nothing. (See conclusion number one).