Nick Daicos

Not just a three-horse race: The outsiders, favourites and late finishers still in Brownlow Medal contention

Which stars of the competition potentially remain in reaching distance of the Brownlow Medal with three rounds to go?

Published by
Annie Ireland

2022 treated us to one of the closest and unexpected Brownlow counts in recent times, with the winner still unknown when Gil McLachlan started the count for Round 23's votes. However, a best-on-ground performance in the final weekend against Collingwood saw Patrick Cripps narrowly win by a singular vote over Lachie Neale.

This year's Brownlow night is looming to be even more interesting than last year's.

Nick Daicos was the clear favourite to win the Brownlow Medal coming into Round 21, having played the most tantalising season out of all the contenders. However, a knee injury sustained against Hawthorn is expected to keep him out until halfway through September, leaving the door wide open for other contenders.

With three games to play out for the season, the race is on to see if Daicos holds on to his lead or if another player can catch up. Marcus Bontempelli and Christian Petracca both loom as the biggest threats to Daicos currently, but gaps in their performances, as well as other teammates anticipated to earn votes, may jeopardise their chances.

According to our MVP leaderboard, there are nine players who will poll heavily on Brownlow night.

We assess how Daicos, Botempelli and Petracca could fare come the AFL's 'night of nights' and which dark horses could still be in the running.

Nick Daicos

It's no certainty that Daicos will hold on from here with three games to play out, but it has been done before.

In 2015 and 2019, Nat Fyfe won the Brownlow Medal and on both occasions he had played exactly 20 games for the season after battling injury. Gary Ablett also won in 2009 from his first 19 games, yet lost to Matt Priddis in 2014 following a shoulder injury after managing 22 votes from 15 matches.

Daicos had the strongest start to the season of any potential contender, potentially claiming best on ground honours for Collingwood in his first six games and might be expected to earn three votes on Brownlow Night in four of the first six games.

Daicos' standout game for the season was no doubt in Collingwood's Anzac Day comeback win against Essendon, finishing the game with 40 disposals, six marks and two goals to win the Anzac Day Medal.

His performance against the Western Bulldogs in Round 17 also saw him win the Bob Rose-Charlie Sutton Medal for his 29 disposals, 11 clearances and two goals. With such consistency throughout the season, it will be interesting to see what happens in the final few rounds come Brownlow night.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 25: Nick Daicos of the Magpies poses for a photo after winning the Anzac medal during the 2023 AFL Round 06 match between the Collingwood Magpies and the Essendon Bombers at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on April 25, 2023 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Marcus Bontempelli

Bontempelli emerged as the favourite after Daicos' injury, with his odds coming in substantially. Bontempelli has been as consistent a performer as Daicos, while a slower start to the season and a drop off between Round 9 and the bye could hinder his chances. Since the bye however, 'The Bont,' has started to find the form which saw him come runner up in the 2021 Brownlow Medal count.

Last weekend against Richmond saw a perfect 10 for Bontempelli in the Coaches' Votes, which will likely translate to three votes on Brownlow night after finishing the game with 32 disposals, 10 clearances and three goals. However, Bontempelli is only one figure in such a strong engine room, with teammates Tom Liberatore and Tim English set to challenge him for votes.

ADELAIDE, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 15: Marcus Bontempelli of the Bulldogs during the 2023 AFL Round 05 match between the Port Adelaide Power and the Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval on April 15, 2023 in Adelaide, Australia. (Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos)

The votes in Round 19 could go either way, with Liberatore having 36 disposals, 12 clearances and four tackles whilst Bontempelli had 29 disposals, 11 marks and two goals.

The Bulldogs have games against Hawthorn, West Coast and Geelong to round out the season. Bontempelli will most likely need to poll close to five votes to win the medal, with the game against Geelong looming as the toughest one to earn the standout plaudits.

Christian Petracca

Petracca looms as the most likely next to Bontempelli to take home the medal, yet his teammates also threaten to spoil his party. Whilst he has been consistent this season, Jack Viney, Max Gawn, Angus Brayshaw and Clayton Oliver will all be competing with Petracca for votes.

Round 20 against Richmond will see Harrison Petty potentially take out the maximum votes after his six-goal performance led Melbourne to victory, whilst Gawn's dominance against Adelaide, Brisbane and the Tigers in the ruck also sees Petracca more than likely miss out on the maximum votes despite equally strong performances.

The Demons' win over St Kilda in Round 17 will see Petracca with at least one vote for his four-goal performance, yet teammates Steven May and Angus Brayshaw, as well as St Kilda's Rowan Marshall and Jack Steele, could see Petracca once again miss the three votes.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 02: Christian Petracca of the Demons kicks for goal during the round three AFL match between Melbourne Demons and Sydney Swans at Melbourne Cricket Ground, on April 02, 2023, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)

Tim Taranto

Whilst Richmond most likely won't appear in finals this season, their star acquisition in Taranto will appear heavily on Brownlow night.

However, heavy losses for Richmond threaten to derail his chances, with rivalling players in Daicos, Bontempelli and Petracca all possessing the potential to poll more due to their club's success this season.

Taranto has enjoyed a season of consistent form since moving from GWS, having had at least 108 AFL Fantasy Points in 16 of 20 games this year. Rounds 7-14 were Taranto's strongest and are reflective of Richmond's strongest patch for the season, winning five of those eight games and only narrowly losing the other three games, including by one and 10-point margins to Essendon and Port Adelaide respectively.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MAY 28: Tim Taranto of the Tigers celebrates after scoring a goal during the round 11 AFL match between Richmond Tigers and Yartapuulti / Port Adelaide Power at Melbourne Cricket Ground, on May 28, 2023, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)

Taranto won't poll as well after the bye and despite Richmond winning three games in a row against Sydney, West Coast and Hawthorn, strong performances from Errol Gulden, James Sicily and Toby Nankervis may minimise his chances. Taranto looms as a sleeping giant come Brownlow night, and could be a similar threat like Steele Sidebottom was in the 2018 count.

Lachie Neale

Since winning the Brownlow Medal in 2020, Neale has often loomed as a chance to win a second 'Charlie' in the following seasons. Last year, Cripps only just pipped him by one vote and this year he could be in contention for winning, or at least close to winning once again. Neale's form from Rounds 9-17 will see him poll strongly, particularly with standout performances against Richmond and West Coast.

However, his form across Round 18-21 has been a lot less consistent, and it seems highly unlikely that he will poll across any of these games, with his unusually quiet performances against Melbourne and Gold Coast to play a part.

Brisbane will host Adelaide and St Kilda and travel to Marvel Stadium to play Collingwood as they head toward finals, and votes won't be easy to earn in these games given the rivalling personnel includes Jack Steele, Brad Crouch, Jordan Dawson and Jordan De Goey. Neale has a tough three games, but should bounce back to poll a few extra Brownlow votes.

Jordan Dawson

Jordan Dawson's 2022 season at Adelaide was strong, but his 2023 season as captain has taken his game to a new level. Dawson has been a quiet achiever and not heavily spoken about in Brownlow contention more recently, but our MVP Leaderboard has him sitting in eighth position overall and in reaching distance with three round left.

Dawson has continued to go one-better week in and week out, with his performance against Collingwood in Round 15 his biggest achievement of the season with 35 disposals, nine marks and 12 tackles. Given the game was so close, with Adelaide only losing by two points, Dawson could take out top votes.

Jordan Dawson during the AFL match between Essendon and Adelaide, Round 4, 2022 (Photo by Cameron Grimes / Zero Digital Media

Strong wins from Adelaide in Rounds 4 and 5, as well as impressive individual performances from Dawson, will see him earn plenty of votes throughout the year.

Errol Gulden

Gulden is an outside chance for the Brownlow given his slower start to the season, having only entered the conversation for individual accolades after his breakout since the Swans' bye, having been a main contributor to the Swans' ability to get back into finals contention.

Since Round 15, Gulden has averaged 30 disposals per game, with the young Swans star expected to poll the top votes for a lot of those games. Last weekend's performance against GWS saw Gulden finish with 32 disposals, five marks, seven tackles and 2.2 to lead the Swans to victory and take out the maximum 10 Coaches' votes, so he will no doubt poll maximum votes in that game.

BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 20: Errol Gulden of the Swans celebrates after kicking a goal during the round one AFL match between the Brisbane Lions and the Sydney Swans at The Gabba on March 20, 2021 in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

Whilst he most likely won't win the Brownlow, Gulden should lead the vote count for his club and will be a strong finisher on the night.

Zak Butters

Butters was originally the biggest threat to Daicos' Brownlow chances, yet four straight losses to the Power have seen him fall significantly out of the equation. It seems unlikely that Butters will poll after the bye, albeit for his performance against Geelong last weekend. In a tough game for the Power, Butters had 30 disposals, eight marks, six tackles and a goal, which should see him earn at least a vote.

Butters will poll heavily throughout the middle of the season, which is also indicative of Port Adelaide's 13-game win streak in which Butters was a key part in maintaining the run.

GOLD COAST, AUSTRALIA - SEPTEMBER 05: Zak Butters of Port Adelaide celebrates kicking a goal during the round 16 AFL match between the North Melbourne Kangaroos and the Port Adelaide Power at Metricon Stadium on September 05, 2020 in Gold Coast, Australia. (Photo by Matt Roberts/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Toby Greene

There's no discounting Greene from the Brownlow race this year, with a clean record and arguably a career-best campaign having the Giants skipper in consideration with three rounds to go.

Much like Dawson, Neale, Butters and Gulden, Greene will enter as an outsider, but with the Giants' club-record seven-game winning run, coupled with his string of standout performances, the veteran forward will remain a chance.

A slow start to the year could hamper his chances, as will defender Sam Taylor's form as one of the premier players in the competition, however recognition from the umpires remains unseen, with the GWS star earning just one Brownlow vote in his 88-game career.

The likes of Josh Kelly, Stephen Coniglio and Tom Green will also be in the mix to steal votes from Greene at some stage this season, however only Coniglio has played more than 16 games this season.

CANBERRA, AUSTRALIA - JULY 23: Toby Greene of the Giants celebrates kicking a goal during the round 19 AFL match between Greater Western Sydney Giants and Gold Coast Suns at Manuka Oval, on July 23, 2023, in Canberra, Australia. (Photo by Brett Hemmings/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

 

Published by
Annie Ireland