We are officially into the business end of the home & away season, though it seems like teams have been playing elimination finals since the bye rounds concluded.
An all-time season in 2023 has been undoubtedly trumped this year.
Never have we seen a more evenly poised playing field on the run to finals; just two wins separate 2nd and 13th on the AFL ladder.
Fans and pundits alike have tested their theories on the famousย Squiggle Ladder Predictor, eager to hypothetically squeeze their supported side into the finals mix or foreshadow which storylines will front the news cycle come the end of August.
Predicting the finish to the season with 100% accuracy is unfathomable, even this late into the season. Over 400,000 potential formations are possible, and perhaps half of them are plausible in the current state of affairs.
Impossibility considered, we will nonetheless look at the current record and run home for each team, predicting the result of each match in the lead up to September to see how the finals bracket could be shaped.
We'll give all teams from 1st-13th a brief summary of how their season may end up and which games will prove most pivotal, while Adelaide, St Kilda, West Coast, North Melbourne and Richmond sit eliminated, mathematically or de facto.
Melbourne
Current Record: 10-7 (105.5%)
Run Home:
- Fremantle (A)
- GWS (H)
- Western Bulldogs (A)
- Port Adelaide (H)
- Gold Coast (A)
- Collingwood (H)
Predicted Position: 9th
Estimated Percentage:ย 103.8%
That 92-point drubbing to Fremantle may prove the difference between finals and vacation for the Demons, with percentage keeping them out of the eight according to our predictions.
If they can reverse the results of what we think will be losses to any of Fremantle in Perth, the Bulldogs at Marvel, or Collingwood at the MCG, they'll be there in September.
We have granted them an upset win over Gold Coast in what would be their first loss at home, but it may not be enough.
