We are officially into the business end of the home & away season, though it seems like teams have been playing elimination finals since the bye rounds concluded.
An all-time season in 2023 has been undoubtedly trumped this year.
Never have we seen a more evenly poised playing field on the run to finals; just two wins separate 2nd and 13th on the AFL ladder.
Fans and pundits alike have tested their theories on the famous Squiggle Ladder Predictor, eager to hypothetically squeeze their supported side into the finals mix or foreshadow which storylines will front the news cycle come the end of August.
Predicting the finish to the season with 100% accuracy is unfathomable, even this late into the season. Over 400,000 potential formations are possible, and perhaps half of them are plausible in the current state of affairs.
Impossibility considered, we will nonetheless look at the current record and run home for each team, predicting the result of each match in the lead up to September to see how the finals bracket could be shaped.
We'll give all teams from 1st-13th a brief summary of how their season may end up and which games will prove most pivotal, while Adelaide, St Kilda, West Coast, North Melbourne and Richmond sit eliminated, mathematically or de facto.
Current Record: 6-10-1 (105.0%)
Run Home:
- Essendon (A)
- Hawthorn (H)
- Geelong (A)
- Western Bulldogs (H)
- Port Adelaide (A)
- Sydney (A)
Predicted Position: 15th
Estimated Percentage: 98.5%
Current Record: 10-6-1 (120.0%)
Run Home:
- Sydney (H)
- Gold Coast (A)
- St Kilda (A)
- GWS (H)
- Collingwood (A)
- Essendon (H)
Predicted Position: 3rd
Estimated Percentage: 119.9%
Brisbane's second-half resurgence has put them back into contention quicker than anyone would've imagined, astonishingly already in the top four having sat 13th just four weeks ago.
They've reeled off six wins in a row but will be tested in the next two weeks, facing the ladder-leading Swans at the Gabba, before the Suns in their unbeaten fortress.
We have them going 5-1 the rest of the way and finishing third, benefitting from a healthy percentage and an extra two points from their Adelaide draw to scrape over Fremantle and Geelong.
We predict the Suns will maintain their unbeaten home run against the Lions, as Brisbane themselves hold serve at home and knock off a critical MCG victory over Collingwood in Round 23.
Current Record: 11-6 (114.1%)
Run Home:
- North Melbourne (H)
- Port Adelaide (H)
- Collingwood (A)
- Hawthorn (H)
- West Coast (A)
- St Kilda (H)
Predicted Position: 2nd
Estimated Percentage: 120.1%
The Blues have a very friendly run into September and will be disappointed with anything less than a 5-1 record for the final six.
Meetings with North Melbourne, Port Adelaide at home, Hawthorn, West Coast and St Kilda should all result in wins, with a blockbuster clash against Collingwood in what is likely to be Scott Pendlebury's 400th the only predicted loss in that stretch.
A second-place finish will be crucial for their premiership hopes, providing them an edge over their interstate rivals and a likely home preliminary final if all goes according to plan.
Current Record: 8-7-2 (102.9%)
Run Home:
- Hawthorn (A)
- Richmond (H)
- Carlton (H)
- Sydney (A)
- Brisbane (H)
- Melbourne (A)
Predicted Position: 11th
Estimated Percentage: 103%
Collingwood's dip looks likely to continue given their unfavourable injury run and current inability to re-establish their identity and aura.
We predict they will lose to Hawthorn this Saturday, and that could be enough to end their season.
We're even conceding upset victories over Carlton and Melbourne at the MCG to close the season, but meetings with Sydney and Brisbane in between may just be too much to ask.
Current Record: 10-6-1 (98.8%)
Run Home:
- Adelaide (H)
- St Kilda (H)
- Fremantle (H)
- Gold Coast (H)
- Sydney (H)
- Brisbane (A)
Predicted Position: 6th
Estimated Percentage: 98.8%
The Bombers may not finish the home & away season in style, but it may not matter.
Clashes with Adelaide, St Kilda and Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium should all result in victories, and these three scalps should be enough to hold their spot in sixth.
Sydney and Brisbane at the Gabba are very unlikely, and Fremantle at the MCG will go in the Dockers' favour according to our estimations. But in 2024, who knows?
Current Record: 10-6-1 (113.1%)
Run Home:
- Melbourne (H)
- West Coast (H)
- Essendon (A)
- Geelong (H)
- GWS (A)
- Port Adelaide (H)
Predicted Position: 4th
Estimated Percentage: 115.6%
The Dockers already sit tied 4th, but even with the hot 5-1 finish that we predict, they only just scrape into a double-chance.
We estimate they will go undefeated the rest of the way at home, beating all of Melbourne, West Coast, Geelong and Port Adelaide, albeit with considerable uncertainty.
We also predict an MCG upset over Essendon, a win that may prove the biggest of their season. Should that loss to GWS away be flipped to a win, Freo could rise to second.
Current Record: 11-6 (110.6%)
Run Home:
- Western Bulldogs (H)
- North Melbourne (A)
- Adelaide (H)
- Fremantle (A)
- St Kilda (A)
- West Coast (H)
Predicted Position: 5th
Estimated Percentage: 115.5%
Three more games at Kardinia Park should see three more wins, as should their clash with North Melbourne at Bellerive Oval.
The losses we predict will come in Perth against Freo, and in upsetting fashion at Marvel Stadium to St Kilda, as was the case late last season.
Current Record: 9-8 (106%)
Run Home:
- GWS (A)
- Brisbane (H)
- West Coast (A)
- Essendon (A)
- Melbourne (H)
- Richmond (A)
Predicted Position: 12th
Estimated Percentage: (103.6%)
Against the odds, Gold Coast may finally break their away game hoodoo with potential victories over West Coast in Perth and Richmond at the 'G.
It won't be enough, however, as the the Suns continue their history of the late season fade by falling to GWS, Essendon away from home, and succumbing to the experience of Melbourne the break their unbeaten run at home.
A home win over Brisbane next weekend is contentious, but a 3-3 run home won't be enough either way.
Current Record: 10-7 (109.8%)
Run Home:
- Gold Coast (H)
- Melbourne (A)
- Hawthorn (H)
- Brisbane (A)
- Fremantle (H)
- Western Bulldogs (A)
Predicted Position: 8th
Estimated Percentage: (108.1)
GWS have returned to form after their mid-season slump, but in eighth spot, they are both one big win out of 2nd and one bad loss out of 12th.
Like Gold Coast, we predict a 3-3 run home, but a spot secured in the final eight.
The equation is simple in our estimation; three wins at home against the Suns, Hawks and Dockers; three away losses to Melbourne, Brisbane and the Bulldogs at Eureka.
Current Record: 9-8 (95.4%)
Run Home:
- Collingwood (H)
- Adelaide (A)
- GWS (A)
- Carlton (A)
- Richmond (H)
- North Melbourne (H)
Predicted Position: 10th
Estimated Percentage: 98.5%
The Hawks are still one of the most in-form teams in the competition behind Brisbane, and while we don't expect them to deviate too far, a weak percentage just keeps them out of the mix.
We've predicted an upset over Collingwood this weekend and another over Adelaide away next weekend, but a tough stretch against GWS and Carlton will likely produce the two losses in their closing run, before a positive finish with wins over Richmond and North Melbourne.
Current Record: 10-7 (105.5%)
Run Home:
- Fremantle (A)
- GWS (H)
- Western Bulldogs (A)
- Port Adelaide (H)
- Gold Coast (A)
- Collingwood (H)
Predicted Position: 9th
Estimated Percentage: 103.8%
That 92-point drubbing to Fremantle may prove the difference between finals and vacation for the Demons, with percentage keeping them out of the eight according to our predictions.
If they can reverse the results of what we think will be losses to any of Fremantle in Perth, the Bulldogs at Marvel, or Collingwood at the MCG, they'll be there in September.
We have granted them an upset win over Gold Coast in what would be their first loss at home, but it may not be enough.
Current Record: 2-15 (64.3%)
Run Home:
- Carlton (A)
- Geelong (H)
- Richmond (H)
- West Coast (H)
- Western Bulldogs (A)
- Hawthorn (A)
Predicted Position: 17th
Estimated Percentage: 66.4%
Current Record: 10-7 (103.4%)
Run Home:
- Richmond (H)
- Carlton (A)
- Sydney (H)
- Melbourne (A)
- Adelaide (H)
- Fremantle (A)
Predicted Position: 13th
Estimated Percentage: 100.5%
It could be an ugly end to the season and maybe an ugly end to Ken Hinkley's tenure at Port Adelaide in 2024 if our predictions are right.
We're seeing just one win for the rest of the year for the Power; this week against Richmond.
A five-game stretch against Carlton, Sydney, Melbourne and Fremantle to follow a Round 23 Adelaide Showdown will prove too tough to scrape finals.
Current Record: 2-15 (63.2%)
Run Home:
- Port Adelaide (A)
- Collingwood (A)
- North Melbourne (A)
- St Kilda (H)
- Hawthorn (A)
- Gold Coast (H)
Predicted Position: 18th
Estimated Percentage: 64%
Current Record: 6-11 (91.1%)
Run Home:
- West Coast (H)
- Essendon (H)
- Brisbane (H)
- Richmond (A)
- Geelong (H)
- Carlton (A)
Predicted Position: 14th
Estimated Percentage: 94.1%
Current Record: 14-3 (145.3%)
Run Home:
- Brisbane (A)
- Western Bulldogs (H)
- Port Adelaide (A)
- Collingwood (H)
- Essendon (A)
- Adelaide (H)
Predicted Position: 1st
Estimated Percentage: (138.1%)
Sydney are a near-on certainty for first place and will only see one more loss for the final six matches according to us; this Sunday at the Gabba.
Away meetings with Port Adelaide and Essendon could go either way, especially with those sides fighting tooth and nail for their desired ladder positions, but with Heeney, Parker and Mills back in the side and potentially back in red-hot form, a 5-0 run into September looks likely.
Current Record: 3-14 (70.3%)
Run Home:
- St Kilda (A)
- Fremantle (A)
- Gold Coast (H)
- North Melbourne (A)
- Carlton (H)
- Geelong (A)
Predicted Position: 16th
Estimated Percentage: 69.7%
Current Record: 9-8 (114.9%)
Run Home:
- Geelong (A)
- Sydney (A)
- Melbourne (H)
- Adelaide (A)
- North Melbourne (H)
- GWS (H)
Predicted Position: 7th
Estimated Percentage: 113.0%
We are predicting an all-time surge to seventh for the Bulldogs, reeling off four in a row to potentially keep Beveridge's job secure.
Away meetings with Geelong and Sydney will likely produce two losses over the next two weeks, until consecutive wins over Melbourne at Docklands, Adelaide away and North Melbourne at Marvel set up a Round 24 clash for the ages.
GWS at Eureka Stadium will prove the difference between making finals and missing, with potential Brownlow ramifications attached to Marcus Bontempelli's performance in what would be a historic win for the Bulldogs.