We are officially into the business end of the home & away season, though it seems like teams have been playing elimination finals since the bye rounds concluded.
An all-time season in 2023 has been undoubtedly trumped this year.
Never have we seen a more evenly poised playing field on the run to finals; just two wins separate 2nd and 13th on the AFL ladder.
Fans and pundits alike have tested their theories on the famousย Squiggle Ladder Predictor, eager to hypothetically squeeze their supported side into the finals mix or foreshadow which storylines will front the news cycle come the end of August.
Predicting the finish to the season with 100% accuracy is unfathomable, even this late into the season. Over 400,000 potential formations are possible, and perhaps half of them are plausible in the current state of affairs.
Impossibility considered, we will nonetheless look at the current record and run home for each team, predicting the result of each match in the lead up to September to see how the finals bracket could be shaped.
We'll give all teams from 1st-13th a brief summary of how their season may end up and which games will prove most pivotal, while Adelaide, St Kilda, West Coast, North Melbourne and Richmond sit eliminated, mathematically or de facto.
Fremantle
Current Record: 10-6-1 (113.1%)
Run Home:
- Melbourne (H)
- West Coast (H)
- Essendon (A)
- Geelong (H)
- GWS (A)
- Port Adelaide (H)
Predicted Position: 4th
Estimated Percentage: 115.6%
The Dockers already sit tied 4th, but even with the hot 5-1 finish that we predict, they only just scrape into a double-chance.
We estimate they will go undefeated the rest of the way at home, beating all of Melbourne, West Coast, Geelong and Port Adelaide, albeit with considerable uncertainty.
We also predict an MCG upset over Essendon, a win that may prove the biggest of their season. Should that loss to GWS away be flipped to a win, Freo could rise to second.
