Predicting the winner, podium and top 5, 10 and 20 players for the 2024 Brownlow Medal

The 2024 Brownlow medal count is set to be the closest count in recent times, with many pundits believing the prestigious award could be shared.

Carlton's Patrick Cripps and Collingwood's Nick Daicos are likely to feature toward the top of the count, while a host of the AFL's captains, such as Marcus Bontempelli, Zach Merrett and Lachie Neale, are likely to be favoured by the umpires.

With Brownlow night nearing, we look at our Zero Hanger MVP top 20 list and see how these players will shape up.

2024 Brownlow medal winner

Patrick Cripps

According to Zero Hanger MVP, the Blues skipper will narrowly beat out Pies young gun Nick Daicos by one solitary vote.

Cripps' 2024 year has arguably been better than his Brownlow-winning year two seasons ago, putting the club on his back multiple times as they returned to finals.

Generally favoured in the eyes of the umpires, Cripps usually is a strong poll-getter, and Monday night shouldn't be any exception.

Top 3 chances

Aside from Cripps, Daicos is expected to follow closely behind the Carlton superstar, while according to our voting model, Essendon's Zach Merrett will follow.

Nick Daicos

Daicos narrowly missed out on 'Charlie' last year and is expected to get close again on the AFL's night of nights.

The champion Pie had an extraordinary season, playing a more midfield role, resulting in many front-half attacks and plenty of score involvements.

Daicos will also feature prominently in the Goal of the Year award, holding two out of the three nominations alongside Harley Reid.

Zach Merrett

The Essendon skipper, like Cripps, put his side on his shoulders countless times during the 2024 season, both winning games off his own boot and saving them with desperate defensive acts.

It was the latter that Merrett ultimately added to his already impressive game, leading the way for the Bombers that craved his leadership.

Top 5 chances

Marcus Bontempelli

Next in line, just behind Merrett, is the Bulldogs captain, who deserves the Brownlow medal more than any other player in the competition.

Bontempelli has come agonisingly close on multiple occasions, with many football fans believing he is stiff not to win one.

And according to our voting model, 2024 won't change that.

However, his season has been extraordinary, and it wouldn't shock the AFL world if he is near the top of the count once again.

Isaac Heeney

Despite being ineligible for the prestigious award, the Swans star has had a season to remember and is still striving for the ultimate glory: a premiership.

Nevertheless, Heeney would be heavily favoured to win the Brownlow had it not been for his suspension and is expected to poll very well on Monday night.

Top 10 chances

Lachie Neale

The Brisbane champion has been here twice before and won't be far off again, with many pundits believing a third Brownlow could be on the cards.

However, a slow start to the year could cost him, while there is definitely bigger fish to fry next Saturday.

Zak Butters

Voted as the most courageous player by his peers, Butters is likely to catch the eye of the umpires.

Arguably, Port Adelaide's most impactful player in 2024 and was a key reason for the successful run during the home and away season.

Caleb Serong

The ever-consistent Docker is likely to be recognised by the game's adjudicators, notably for his clean hands and clearance prowess.

Serong will have his hands full on Brownlow night but will face the likes of Hayden Young and Andrew Brayshaw stealing votes.

Errol Gulden

Last year proved the superstar wingman collects votes from the umpires.

But with the rise of Heeney and an impressive season from Chad Warner, it is hard to see Gulden push for the top five.

But the Swans won plenty of games, and Gulden was the main reason for it.

Max Gawn

The only non-midfielder to likely feature in the top 10 of the Brownlow count, according to our MVP model.

The Melbourne skipper was dominant throughout 2024 and received his seventh All-Australian blazer because of it.

A lot of the Demons' wins were off the back of the much-loved character, so it'd be no surprise to see him poll well.

Top 20 chances

Noah Anderson

Building into his career nicely up on the Gold Coast, Anderson could push for a top-10 finish on Monday night.

He is finding plenty of ways to gather the football but is now adding front-half dominance to his game.

Jason Horne-Francis

A matchwinner of the future, but the star named "Hornet" proved why he was initially taken with Pick 1 in the 2021 National Draft.

His power and burst will catch the eyes of the umpires, while a more consistent season for the Power will see a rise on Brownlow night.

Tom Green

A clearance and contested beast, there are not many players in the competition who win the ball at the coalface more.

The Giants midfielder was supreme throughout 2024 and will likely be rewarded for his efforts.

Chad Warner

The cheeky "Chad" had an unbelievable season with one more game to go.

Part of the famous trio (Heeney, Gulden and Warner), the No.1 dominates for the Swans and is a hard match-up for any opposition.

Playing a front-half game, Warner is responsible for a lot of scores, which will bode well on Brownlow night, but will contend with two of his star teammates.

Rowan Marshall

The other non-midfielder on this list, the Saints ruck, was stiff not to make the All-Australian squad.

A supercoach's dream, given his statistical dominance on game day, Marshall was essentially another on-baller under Ross Lyon and is rivalling Max Gawn for the game's best ruck.

Matt Rowell

Similar style player to Tom Green, there are not many that can do what Matt Rowell can do.

The Suns bull is generally tasked with getting his hands on the football first and finding teammates, both to good effect.

Adam Treloar

Given his first All-Australian blazer for his stellar 2024 campaign, the hard-running Treloar would be a surprise to no one if he polled well on Brownlow night.

Contending with the stacked forward line alongside Bontempelli and Ed Richards, it's hard to see the former Pie receive a heap of votes.

Nevertheless, he is likely to be rewarded for his efforts.

Jai Newcombe

As Hawthorn did, Newcombe built into the season nicely and was a key part of the club's resurgence and, ultimately, finals run.

The former mid-season pick-up has defied the odds and become a superstar of the AFL.

Andrew Brayshaw

A consistent season for the Dockers rover, but it didn't quite reach the heights of 2022.

Brayshaw still found plenty of the ball and was recognised by the club, coming second to Serong in the Doig Medal count.

Dylan Moore

A maiden All-Australian blazer for the Hawks half-forward and a key cog to the club returning to the finals for the first time since 2018.

Moore's front-half expertise could catch the eyes of the umpires, finding teammates and hitting the scoreboard regularly generally fares well on Brownlow night.