Last Season
The Bombers scraped inside the eight last year before being eliminated in swift fashion by the West Coast Eagles. Another heavy finals loss has heaped the pressure on the Dons who need to take that next step in 2020.
The return of Devon Smith, who missed the majority of the 2019 season with a knee injury, will be a big boost for Essendon. Smith was one of the games best tacklers in 2018 and looked set to take another step but never got into the full swing of things.
Joe Daniher also missed last season and looks set to again miss a fair chunk of 2020.
Off-season
In: Andrew Phillips (Carlton), Harrison Jones (Pick 30, Calder Cannons), Nick Bryan (Pick 38, Oakleigh Chargers), Lachlan Johnson (Pick 63, Oakleigh Chargers) Ross McQuillan (Armagh GAA), Cian McBride Meath GAA), Tom Hird (Category B rookie).
Out: Mark Baguley (retired), Mitch Brown (delisted), Zac Clarke (Delisted), Matt Dea (retired), Michael Hartley (delisted), Jordan Houlahan (delisted), Tom Jok (delisted), Luke Lavender (delisted), Jake Long (delisted), Ben McNiece (delisted), David Myers (retired), Trent Mynott (delisted).
Off-season grade: C
The Bombers have been big movers in previous off-season periods but in 2020 they have the list they believe will bring sustained success to the football club.
Andrew Phillips is a handy pick-up to support Tom Bellchambers, and the retention of Joe Daniher despite his request to move to Sydney showed strength. However, it is expected Daniher will exercise his free agency rights at the end of the 2020 season and head to Sydney for basically nothing.
Defining Period
The opening five rounds leading into Anzac Day loom as massive for Essendon. They will likely start as favourites in four of those five games. Fremantle, Sydney and Carlton in the opening three weeks are very winnable before they take on GWS and then Adelaide.
The Dons could very well be 4-1 leading into the biggest home and away game for the year. A good start will give the Bombers a big look at the finals picture.
Best 22
B: Aaron Francis, Cale Hooker, Patrick Ambrose
HB: Adam Saad, Michael Hurley, Conor McKenna
C: Zach Merrett, Dyson Heppell, Andrew McGrath
HF: Jake Stringer, Shaun McKernan, Devon Smith
F: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Joe Daniher, Orazio Fantasia
FOLL: Tom Bellchambers, Dylan Shiel, Darcy Parish
I/C: Kyle Langford, Tom Cutler, Matt Guelfi, David Zaharakis
Champion Data says
"So, where are the gaps? Dyson Heppell and Darcy Parish were the only two midfielders at the club to rate above average for contested possessions, while boom recruit Dylan Shiel and B&F winner Zach Merrett rated average. Kyle Langford and Dylan Clarke rated below average and poor respectively. Quite simply there weren't enough contributors from midfield."
Strengths and weaknesses
Essendon's strength lies in their small to mid-size forwards. Orazio Fantasia is as good around goal as any forward in the game. Fantasia knows where the goals are and is smart with ball in hand. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti is an elite pressure forward and brings a buzz and excitement to the Dons forward line. Tippa is as good a defensive small forward can be and can find the goals with consistent ease.
Jake Stringer at times last year showed flashes of his brilliant best and with Daniher likely out for a good portion of the season, looms as Essendon's most important player. Stringer plays his best footy up forward but his ability to go into midfield and win his own ball has made him almost unplayable at his best.
A key weakness for Essendon surprisingly comes around the contest. Their midfield is stacked yet they struggle to win their own ball. From round 15 onward the Bombers lost the contested possession count by a total of 147, ranking them a clear 18th. The gap between them and the next worst was a massive 59! Their midfield needs to be better around the ball if they're any chance of surging up the ladder.
Prediction: 10th
The Bombers will be heavily relying on a fast start to get them off and running but any slips in that opening period will see them fall behind the eight ball. In such a tight competition consistency is key and the Bombers seem to be more streaky then reliable.
The ups are great but the downs have their impact and will see the Dons slide a touch in 2020.
