Each year AFL clubs decide their list strategies and assess whether a strong draft hand is likely to yield benefits comparable to the trade assets the picks are worth.
As clubs push higher up the draft board they gain the security that they can draft the players they rate the highest before other clubs and, consequently, increase their chance of securing successful long-term recruits.
Nonetheless, this strategy is not foolproof and hindsight exposes the difficult reality of ranking the ability and potential of players before they have been introduced to an AFL environment.
In this list, the first round of the 2016 National Draft will be reassessed with the benefit of six years of AFL data.
Below is the original 2016 first round:
- Andrew McGrath
- Tim Taranto
- Hugh McCluggage
- Ben Ainsworth
- Will Setterfield
- Sam Petrevski-Seton
- Jack Scrimshaw
- Griffin Logue
- Will Brodie
- Jack Bowes
- Oliver Florent
- Jy Simpkin
- Daniel Venables
- Harry Perryman
- Jordan Gallucci
- Todd Marshall
- Jarrod Berry
- Sam Powell-Pepper
- Tim English
- Isaac Cumming
- Will Hayward
In this draft year, a number of players were taken as father-son and academy selections (eg. Will Setterfield, Jack Bowes, Harry Perryman). The nominal draft order will be adjusted to reflect what clubs would have actually taken into this hypothetical draft.
Where these players are selected it will be assumed that the clubs that matched their bids in the original 2016 draft will continue to do so regardless of where they land in this order.
12. Pick 12: Nick Larkey - West Coast (Original position - Pick 73)
West Coast is entering a new era after significant list turnover in the aftermath of their 2018 Premiership, and who better to usher them into a bright future than a long-term replacement for retired key forward Josh Kennedy.
Enter Nick Larkey, the young forward averaging just shy of two goals a game for a side languishing at the bottom of the ladder.
At just 24 years of age Larkey has led the Kangaroos goalkicking for two consecutive years, using elite precision in front of goal to convert despite a lack of opportunities in front of goal.
He has been thrown into the deep end as a young key position player drawing the best defender every week, and a partnership between him and Jack Darling would be mutually beneficial for West Coast and Larkey.
