Each year AFL clubs decide their list strategies and assess whether a strong draft hand is likely to yield benefits comparable to the trade assets the picks are worth.
As clubs push higher up the draft board they gain the security that they can draft the players they rate the highest before other clubs and, consequently, increase their chance of securing successful long-term recruits.
Nonetheless, this strategy is not foolproof and hindsight exposes the difficult reality of ranking the ability and potential of players before they have been introduced to an AFL environment.
In this list, the first round of the 2016 National Draft will be reassessed with the benefit of six years of AFL data.
Below is the original 2016 first round:
- Andrew McGrath
- Tim Taranto
- Hugh McCluggage
- Ben Ainsworth
- Will Setterfield
- Sam Petrevski-Seton
- Jack Scrimshaw
- Griffin Logue
- Will Brodie
- Jack Bowes
- Oliver Florent
- Jy Simpkin
- Daniel Venables
- Harry Perryman
- Jordan Gallucci
- Todd Marshall
- Jarrod Berry
- Sam Powell-Pepper
- Tim English
- Isaac Cumming
- Will Hayward
In this draft year, a number of players were taken as father-son and academy selections (eg. Will Setterfield, Jack Bowes, Harry Perryman). The nominal draft order will be adjusted to reflect what clubs would have actually taken into this hypothetical draft.
Where these players are selected it will be assumed that the clubs that matched their bids in the original 2016 draft will continue to do so regardless of where they land in this order.
19. Pick 19: Mitch Lewis - Sydney (Original position - Pick 76)
Mitch Lewis can be characterised as a 'quiet achiever' given his outstanding statistical dominance in an otherwise largely uninspired Hawthorn outfit.
In 2022 he averaged two and a half goals per game and was the most accurate forward in the AFL despite playing for the 13th-best side.
Sydney are not bereft of forward talent but it is not difficult to see the value he could add to their side, especially with Lance Franklin nearing the end of his illustrious career.
With the equivalent pick in the original draft Sydney selected Will Hayward, and whilst he has been an important player for them, it is difficult not to salivate over the potential addition of Lewis to their forward line.
