Each year AFL clubs decide their list strategies and assess whether a strong draft hand is likely to yield benefits comparable to the trade assets the picks are worth.
As clubs push higher up the draft board they gain the security that they can draft the players they rate the highest before other clubs and, consequently, increase their chance of securing successful long-term recruits.
Nonetheless, this strategy is not foolproof and hindsight exposes the difficult reality of ranking the ability and potential of players before they have been introduced to an AFL environment.
In this list, the first round of the 2016 National Draft will be reassessed with the benefit of six years of AFL data.
Below is the original 2016 first round:
- Andrew McGrath
- Tim Taranto
- Hugh McCluggage
- Ben Ainsworth
- Will Setterfield
- Sam Petrevski-Seton
- Jack Scrimshaw
- Griffin Logue
- Will Brodie
- Jack Bowes
- Oliver Florent
- Jy Simpkin
- Daniel Venables
- Harry Perryman
- Jordan Gallucci
- Todd Marshall
- Jarrod Berry
- Sam Powell-Pepper
- Tim English
- Isaac Cumming
- Will Hayward
In this draft year, a number of players were taken as father-son and academy selections (eg. Will Setterfield, Jack Bowes, Harry Perryman). The nominal draft order will be adjusted to reflect what clubs would have actually taken into this hypothetical draft.
Where these players are selected it will be assumed that the clubs that matched their bids in the original 2016 draft will continue to do so regardless of where they land in this order.
18. Pick 18: Jack Henry (rookie) - Western Bulldogs (Original position - Pick 16 Rookie Draft)
One of the greatest weaknesses of the Western Bulldogs last year was their leaky defence, ranking 14th for scores per entry against and 11th for total points against during the 2022 regular season.
Henry is the perfect antidote to that deficiency given that he is a premiership-winning defender who plays with wisdom and strength.
He finished second in the Geelong best-and-fairest in 2021 and has proven that he is just as capable of matching up against the game's best forwards as he is adept at peeling off as an interception machine.
Given that the Bulldogs drafted Lewis Young originally, it makes sense that they might take Henry instead in this hypothetical draft.