Each year AFL clubs decide their list strategies and assess whether a strong draft hand is likely to yield benefits comparable to the trade assets the picks are worth.
As clubs push higher up the draft board they gain the security that they can draft the players they rate the highest before other clubs and, consequently, increase their chance of securing successful long-term recruits.
Nonetheless, this strategy is not foolproof and hindsight exposes the difficult reality of ranking the ability and potential of players before they have been introduced to an AFL environment.
In this list, the first round of the 2016 National Draft will be reassessed with the benefit of six years of AFL data.
Below is the original 2016 first round:
- Andrew McGrath
- Tim Taranto
- Hugh McCluggage
- Ben Ainsworth
- Will Setterfield
- Sam Petrevski-Seton
- Jack Scrimshaw
- Griffin Logue
- Will Brodie
- Jack Bowes
- Oliver Florent
- Jy Simpkin
- Daniel Venables
- Harry Perryman
- Jordan Gallucci
- Todd Marshall
- Jarrod Berry
- Sam Powell-Pepper
- Tim English
- Isaac Cumming
- Will Hayward
In this draft year, a number of players were taken as father-son and academy selections (eg. Will Setterfield, Jack Bowes, Harry Perryman). The nominal draft order will be adjusted to reflect what clubs would have actually taken into this hypothetical draft.
Where these players are selected it will be assumed that the clubs that matched their bids in the original 2016 draft will continue to do so regardless of where they land in this order.
17. Pick 17: Tyson Stengle (rookie) - Port Adelaide (Original position - Pick 6 Rookie Draft)
The retirement of Robbie Gray left a void in the small forward stocks at Alberton, one which was filled during the most recent trade period by Junior Rioli and Francis Evans.
However, if Port Adelaide had drafted Stengle in 2016 they might instead have an All-Australian small forward entering the prime of his career playing alongside young stars Connor Rozee and Zak Butters.
Now a premiership player, Stengle was plucked from the proverbial AFL scrap heap by a strong Geelong side and has repaid their faith in spades.
It is clear that Stengle has benefited hugely from a strong Geelong culture, and Port Adelaide would be well-poised to take on the admittedly difficult task of turning 2016 Stengle into the player he has become.
