It's almost one year on from the 2023 AFL Draft, and an entire football season has been completed.
The weapons of the draft class have proven their capability, whilst a few late selections have stolen the limelight with incredible displays across the season.
We're reviewing the top ten picks of 2023 and how they performed this season, indicating whether they met or exceeded their expectations, or if they're still under development.
Additionally, we delve into the draft steals of last year's crop, looking at those who were picked up late but starred at AFL level.
Pick 1: Harley Reid
Expectations: Met
No player has ever had as much hype and anticipation as Harley Reid had entering his first year of AFL football. With social media driving the visibility of Talent League football, Reid was expected to jump onto the scene and lead from the outset, forecast to take control of a struggling West Coast side.
Realistically, the expectations were through the roof and Reid was never likely to exceed the hype that the media portrayed.
Yet, Reid still performed exceptionally well in his first year. We still saw the flashes of x-factor he possesses, with a dual don't argue against Essendon and an explosive clearance and goal against Melbourne that earned him Goal of the Year.
What an absolute ripper this was!
Congratulations to Harley Reid on winning the 2024 @NAB AFL Goal of the Year! pic.twitter.com/2oOeoaPSU1
— AFL (@AFL) September 23, 2024
An unrealistic expectation floated prior to the year was his comparison to Nick Daicos' first year, especially disposals-wise. Reid managed 18.6 disposals per game however, as he played the majority of the season in the midfield, whereas Daicos spent time accumulating off half-back.
9.8 of his possessions were contested too, whilst he also laid four tackles per game, and recorded 3.1 inside 50s and five clearances per game.
Overall, Reid had a successful season despite a poor win record for the Eagles, and will only continue to improve with a full pre-season under his belt this summer.
Pick 2: Colby McKercher
Expectations: Exceeded
Playing off half-back, as well as on a wing for parts of the season, Colby McKercher never put a foot wrong as soon as he stepped into an AFL match.
A skilful and efficient ball user, McKercher was utilised well by coach Alastair Clarkson in the defensive third, often cutting through the opposition's set-up with chiselling kicks. The 19-year-old averaged the fifth-best disposal efficiency out of players who participated in ten or more games, with a rate of 80.3%. McKercher also averaged five rebound 50s per game in 2024, leading the draft class in this metric.
McKercher also recorded three-straight weeks of 30+ disposals, before a career-high 37 disposal performance in a return from a bone stress injury in Round 17.
As a number two pick, McKercher was always expected to seamlessly transition into the AFL level, but perhaps not quite to this level. An exciting, long career ahead.
Pick 3: Jed Walter
Expectations: Under Development
Whilst Jed Walter has been lauded as "the biggest thing in two years on the Gold Coast" and that he could be "bigger than Ablett", it's safe to say Walter will need to continue to develop over his first few seasons to maximise his potential, as the majority of key positional players do.
Walter showed signs of what earned him the third pick in last year's draft, however also had multiple goalless outings as he grasped the elite level, scoring 11 goals from 14 games. A 2.4 goalkicking performance against North Melbourne in Round 9 was Walter's best, as well as achieving a season-high disposal count of 11, his only double-digit disposal effort this year.
Walter was also unable to earn a Rising Star nomination, reflecting that he is in a developing stage of his AFL career.
Pick 4: Zane Duursma
Expectations: Under Development
Another forward who is developing their craft at the elite level, Zane Duursma was in and out of the North Melbourne side in his first season. Kicking nine goals from 13 appearances, Duursma too teased Kangaroos fans with his potential, including a Mark of the Year nomination that ultimately lost to Bobby Hill.
Likewise to Walter, Duursma will build on his skills in the coming seasons as he develops his body to the AFL level. Unfortunately shoulder surgery will impact his pre-season, but with an efficient midfield group, Duursma will be sure to gobble up inside 50 entries next year and make his mark in the side.
Pick 5: Nick Watson
Expectations: Exceeded
Despite an inaccurate start to his time in the AFL, Nick Watson's persistent efforts implied that he was going to star in the near future.
With constant pressure inside forward 50, and the ability to utilise his stature to his advantage, the 'Wizard' found himself with multiple scoring shots in 15 of his 18 appearances in 2024.
A brash youngster who embodies the new-age Hawks, Watson was predicted by draft experts to deliver on the big stage. Not only does Watson love the big stage though, he evidently prefers it.
In a packed MCG for Dustin Martin's 300th game, Watson had five shots on goal in front of 92,000 fans. Sure, it was for a return of 1.4, but Watson's resilience gave the 170cm livewire repeated opportunities.
In front of 74,000 supporters six weeks later, Watson's yips disappeared as he nailed three straight goals against Collingwood.
In the biggest games of all however, the elimination and semi-final, Watson, as a first-year player, was Hawthorn's most dangerous forward. Kicking 4.1 against the Bulldogs in front of nearly 98,000 fans, and then a game-changing 3.1 against Port Adelaide at a sold-out Adelaide Oval, Watson showed that he thrives when the pressure is on.
Watson's consistent pressure and IQ has assisted him in delivering an outstanding first year, trumping the high expectations beset upon him before the season began.
Pick 6: Ryley Sanders
Expectations: Met
Ryley Sanders burst out the blocks to start the season, firming early as a potential Rising Star winner. The number six pick recorded 30 disposals in a pre-season match against Hawthorn, as well as ten score involvements.
The competitive Sanders faced selection frustration during patches of the season, venting his annoyance from being subbed off for a second game in Round 5. Sanders also spent parts of the year in the VFL, albeit he was arguably stiff on selection. With an average of 32 disposals across his seven state league appearances, including a 42-disposal game against Richmond and a 39-disposal effort against Casey, Sanders was a selection shout each week.
In the AFL side, Sanders averaged 16.5 disposals despite starting as, or being replaced for, the substitute in five of his 14 AFL games. Playing in the midfield, Sanders also averaged 2.4 clearances and 4.6 tackles.
Whilst Sanders' draft year went under the radar in comparison to his draft class counterparts Reid and Watson, his pre-season form presented Sanders with lofty expectations. However, his coach's moving of the magnets impacted his chances to reach those heights.
That remained largely out of Sanders' control however, and he certainly exceeded his projections prior to his Community Series matches, which is why his rating of 'meeting expectations' is a fair middle ground.
Pick 7: Caleb Windsorย
Expectations: Exceeded
Caleb Windsor too struck pundits as an early Rising Star fancy as a consistent first year of selection allowed Windsor to put runs on the board early. Windsor played 19 games at AFL level this season, averaging 14.5 disposals, 2.3 inside 50s and 2.6 tackles.
Despite joining a stacked Melbourne midfield group, Windsor performed soundly across the wing, helping fill the void of Angus Brayshaw as solidly as a first-year player could, as well as being selected over premiership veteran Lachie Hunter.
Hence, Windsor's consistent selection and performance at the highest level in what is usually a hard-to-crack side, exceeded the expectations for 2023's Pick 7.
Pick 8: Daniel Curtin
Expectations: Under Development
Curtin only managed seven games in his first year as a Crow, however he managed to string together five consecutive games in the final five weeks of the home and away season.
The 19-year-old utility moved around the ground, playing a mix of defence, midfield and forward. His best performance was a two-goal, 11-disposal display against the Bulldogs in Round 22 where his versatility was on show, with Curtin also registering three clearances.
However, his lack of appearances at the elite level until Adelaide's finals hopes were dashed didn't allow Curtin to crack into their best 23 in critical games. His opening two games were against tough opposition, preliminary finalist and cross-town rival Port Adelaide, as well as soon-to-be premiers Brisbane, which hindered Curtin's time to adjust to the elite level initially.
With just seven games under his belt as a 197cm utility, Curtin still has plenty of time to work out his position in the Crows side and develop his craft as a tall, which is why we've regarded him as under development so far.
Pick 9: Ethan Read
Expectations: Under Development
Just four games from Academy selection Read in 2024 disallowed much development of the homegrown Gold Coast talent, as the luckless 19-year-old suffered multiple injuries in his first season.
The 202cm key position talent is well-regarded for his athleticism, which enabled him a two-goal performance in a win against Hawthorn in just his second game. However, Read was quiet in his final two AFL matches for the year, recording just four disposals in each for a lack of scoreboard return.
Read suffered a small leg fracture against Williamstown in a Round 15 VFL clash, which ruled Read out in July for six weeks. Read returned to the VFL in Round 21, before sustaining a concussion against Casey, prematurely ending his season.
Read demonstrated why he was a high draft pick in his Round 13 VFL clash against Essendon, kicking 5.1 in Gold Coast's victory. However, with a season full of setbacks, Read's rating is under development as his injuries failed to see the key forward get a consistent run at AFL level.
Pick 10: Nate Caddy
Expectations: Met
It took a while for Caddy to break into the senior Bombers side, but once he did, there was no looking back.
Touted as a game-breaking player with incredible aerial ability, Essendon fans were made to wait on Caddy as Essendon's forward line were humming in sync to start the season. Three consecutive VFL games of multiple goals saw Caddy enter the AFL side in Round 11 however, debuting in front of a packed crowd at Dreamtime at the 'G.
Starting nervily in front of goal initially, Caddy would first goal in Round 15 with two majors against West Coast. The 19-year-old kicked multiple goals twice more in his debut year, with a 3.1, 15-disposal outing against Gold Coast his best.
As time went on in the season, Caddy's confidence grew as he adapted to the elite level, and by the end of the year, his talent and marking ability were available for all eyes to see. Essendon fans can be confident that the right call was made at Pick 10, as Caddy looks promising at an AFL standard and will only improve as his career progresses.
The Draft Steals - Who else exceeded expectations?
It wasn't only a handful of the top 10 that exceeded their draft expectations in 2024, as a range of late first-rounders to final selections exceeded their first-year projections. Here are five draftees we've deemed to be the steals of the 2023 AFL Draft.
Pick 18 - Darcy Wilson
Tracking as a favourite for the Rising Star early in the season, Wilson was a shining light in a lacklustre season for St Kilda. Wilson played all 23 games , averaging 15.4 disposals and 2.4 inside 50s per game whilst playing a midfielder-forward role.
Wilson kicked 15 goals in his debut year, booting the fourth-most goals of the 2023 draft class. His best game came against North Melbourne in Round 8, registering 3.2 and 21 disposals.
Pick 31 - Logan Morris
Logan Morris, a premiership player.
After a strange turn of events led to his widely-documented debut gameday, Morris became more than just a one-off feelgood story. Kicking 1.3 in a lively Round 8 debut, Morris would only miss one more game for the rest of the season.
Morris slotted miraculously quickly into Brisbane's side and became a key contributor to their form turnaround. The 191cm forward had nine multiple-goal days, two of which came in the finals series, one of those of course being in the Lions' premiership-winning performance.
His grand final performance was arguably his best game, as he played his role to perfection, although a three-goal game against St Kilda was also a highlight. With 24 goals tallied, he scored the third-most of his draft class.
Pick 36 - Shaun Mannagh
The mature-aged pickup from Geelong turned out to be another stroke of genius from the Cats. Drafted as a 26-year-old out of Werribee's VFL side, Mannagh repaid the faith in Geelong after his return to the side late in the season.
After a debut in Round 1 and consecutive selection in Round 2, Mannagh wouldn't return from the VFL until Round 17. His form was immense immediately, playing well enough for coach Chris Scott to suggest he regretted sending him back to the VFL.
"Looking back on it, he should've come in Round 1, and just stayed in," Scott said onย Seven'sย Talking Footy.
Mannagh was lauded by Cats fans as his late-season form assisted in a top-four berth, but it wasn't until the qualifying final that the wider AFL community took notice.
A 23-disposal, three-goal, seven-inside 50 and five-tackle display turned off the power against Port Adelaide, as Mannagh officially announced himself to the competition. His first AFL finals performance backed up five consecutive weeks of goalkicking, and rivalled his six-goal haul in 2023's VFL Grand Final.
Mannagh entered 2024 with little to no expectations to his name, however stamped himself as a Geelong staple by season's end, well and truly exceeding his projected output.
Pick 56 - Calsher Dear
Whilst he may have been taken late due to his father-son ties, the expectation for Calsher Dear in 2024 was that he'd be fortunate to crack into the senior side.
Instead, under the leadership of Hawthorn veteran Jack Gunston, Dear found himself as a regular in a brash Hawthorn forward line, outperforming even his own expectations for his debut year.
"I got asked if I had any expectations this year, and honestly, I thought I'd be playing the whole year at Box Hill and just developing over this year and next year," Dear told AFL Media.
Rather, Dear held his spot in the side for 17 weeks, including both of Hawthorn's unlikely finals appearances.
Not only did Dear participate in Hawthorn's finals run, but he also starred in it. In the Hawks' domination of the Western Bulldogs, Dear clunked five marks inside 50 on his way to scoring 3.4. Whilst teammate Watson was expected to shine on the big stage, not many assumed Dear would too.
Dear ultimately kicked the most goals of any player from the 2023 draft class with 25, whilst kicking only 11 behinds. A raw, skinny father-son, Gunston's influence shone through Dear in his debut year, and his assistance in his development led to one of the biggest draft steals of 2024.
Pick 63 - Lawson Humphries
Where do Geelong find these players?
Taken in the second-last pick of the National Draft, Humphries stunned commentators and fans, even his own teammates, with his wildly efficient kicking on both his left and right foot.
Out of Rising Star prospects that played ten or more games, Humphries averaged the highest disposal efficiency at 85% from his 11 matches.
Playing as a medium defender, Humphries was poised in the defensive arc, recording an average of 17 disposals and 2.6 rebound 50s per game.
Humphries debuted in Round 16 and held his spot for the rest of the year, he too being a crucial part of Geelong's top-four surge and clinical qualifying final display. The 21-year-old may not have been expected to play a game at all in 2024, yet made the most of his opportunity when it was handed to him.
Despite his late-season debut, Humphries' skill by foot presents him with the ability to forge a long AFL career, and is certainly a top steal of the draft.
