Spoiler alert: Do we already know who finishes top four in 2025?

We all know the importance of finishing top four; the flag is almost always won from there.

Here is an astounding fact hiding in plain sight; only eight clubs have finished top four in the last six home and away seasons. And that is a decent length of time; a team can hit rock bottom, rebuild, and contend in that period.  But just eight teams have finished in the top four in an eighteen-team competition.

And this six-year period includes two Richmond premierships in 2019 and 2020 when they finished top four in both years. If we were to politely categorise the Tigers as a declining power after those seasons and put them to one side, the number would be seven.

And a similar anomaly, if we can call GWS an anomaly... In the six-year period they are the only side to have finished top four just once, last season actually (which may be an indication of things to come) but if we were to place them to one side too, the number would be six.

So just six clubs have dominated the top-four ladder positions for the last six years, occupying 21 of the 24 spots. But let's stick with eight, there is no reason to fiddle with the numbers to build a narrative; just eight clubs dominating the top end of the ladder is still remarkable in a competition that is regarded as 'even' and 'balanced'.

And we all know why this is so crucial; every year apart from one season, the eventual premier has been one of those top-four finishers. The exception is Brisbane last year when they finished fifth. But after having not missed the finals at all during the six-year span, and having finished in the top four on four occasions, they were clearly well-equipped to go all the way.

What does this mean exactly? That only eight clubs have had a genuine chance at premiership glory over the last six seasons? Teams have made the grand final from outside the top four, but they don't generally win. The Dogs won from seventh in 2016 but that seems a long time ago now.

It is clear though, that a select group of AFL clubs are continually banging on the door at the business end of the season and the rest of the competition have been unable to muscle in on the action.

And a point to make; this dominance doesn't necessarily mean that there is a flaw in the system. Remember the old final eight when first played eighth in week one? It was yuk.  The current final eight system works brilliantly and, as a result, is firmly embedded in the competition. It rewards teams who finish higher up, it is perfectly clear who gets a home final and who gets a double chance, and most importantly, we all understand it and it's generally regarded as being fair.

The same old suspects

Let's take a quick look at these perennial top-four finishers who keep ending up front and centre to win the flag.

• Geelong (5)

The Cats either finish top four or don't make the eight apparently. In the last six years they have finished in the top four five times;  third (2024), first (2022), third (2021), fourth (2020) and first (2019). In 2023 they forgot who they were and finished 12^th. Crucially, all that graft and toil; skill and dedication; success and jubilation resulted in one premiership in 2022. That is not a knock on the club, it just shows how hard it is to win one even when you have a stranglehold on a top-four spot.

• Brisbane (4)

The Lions fall slightly short of Geelong. They have finished in the top four (only!) four times;  Second (2023), fourth (2021), second (2020) and second (2019). As mentioned above, they didn't miss finals in the six-year period and won the grand final from fifth last year. Like Geelong, that win is the only flag from the period.

• Port Adelaide (4)

The Power have done it four times; Second (2024), third (2023), second (2021) and first (2020). Despite the consistency, at various times the coach and club have been under tremendous pressure, most obviously because they have not been able to win a flag during the period.

• Collingwood (3)

The Pies have done it three times, though there is a little caveat with them. Unlike the other clubs listed here which have been stable throughout the period (i.e., the same coach and the same philosophy), the Magpies finished fourth in 2019 led by Nathan Buckley and first in 2023 and fourth in 2022 led by Craig McRae. So, the six-year period includes two eras for them. Like Geelong and Brisbane, they have a flag for their troubles.

• Melbourne (3)

The Dees have done it three successive times, fourth (2023), second (2022) and first (2021). It is a mixed bag. They won the flag in 2021 (brilliant!) but were bundled out in straight sets the next two years (bad!). Crucially though, they got that flag.

• Sydney (2)

Surprisingly, the Swans have only done it twice in the six-year period; First (2024) and third (2022). It is probably fair to note that they missed by percentage in 2021, but then again so did the Dogs who had a healthier percentage, so forget I mentioned it. Like Port Adelaide, no flag for the Swans over the period.

• Richmond (2)

The Tigers are a bit of an outlier here. They did it twice at the start of the period (third in 2019 and 2020) and won two flags. But they have only made the finals once since, so it has been a clear trend down for them over the period, albeit from lofty heights.

• GWS (2)

The 'Orange Tsunami' is building. Last year they finished fourth. They have been more than decent over the six-year period, making finals four of the six years, but last year was the first top four finish. Like Collingwood, the period includes two coaches. Under new coach Adam Kingsley they finished seventh in 2023 after missing finals in 2022 under Leon Cameron, and then broke into the top four last year.

Is it more of the same this year?

The million-dollar question; does the stranglehold on the top four by these select clubs continue? What clubs might fall out of this elite group and who could muscle in? We have touched on it already; falling out is Richmond, that one is easy given they have already done so. Their rebuild will be a good example of how long it takes a well-run club to hit the bottom and rise again.

The top-five ladder positions at the end of 2024 were occupied by clubs discussed above (Sydney, Port Adelaide, Geelong, GWS and Brisbane; in that order), with Collingwood finishing ninth and Melbourne finishing 14^th. It seems too easy to single them out, but Melbourne looks the most vulnerable. The other six, well, six does not go into four (I did maths at school) so at least a few of these overachievers are going to have a 'down' year, even if that means finishing fifth or sixth.

And who could really mix things up by muscling in?

The Bulldogs are maligned for not making the top four in Luke Beveridge's tenure. They missed by a game last year (one more win and their healthy percentage would have seen them leap to third from sixth) and they missed by percentage in 2021, pipped by Brisbane. The Dogs have been (mostly) consistent finishers in the bottom half of the eight for the last six seasons; sixth (2024), ninth (2023), eighth (2022), fifth (2021), seventh (2020), and seventh (2019). Can they finally crack it?

Hawthorn are clearly on the rise. They played finals last year for the first time since 2018 but are they hardened, composed and experienced enough to leap up the ladder even further? Carlton are a club transformed in recent times but do not quite look top-four material yet, likewise Fremantle.

Looking at that list above, is your club capable of muscling in?

We will find out soon enough, but suffice to say, the clubs at the top of the ladder have been firmly entrenched there for a while now, and don't look like plummeting down anytime soon.