2024 AFL Finals

Stats that matter: The players that could decide the 2023 AFL Grand Final

Every Grand Final has game-changers. Who will this year’s be?

Published by
Ryan Saxelby

It's building.

The tension, excitement, and nerves grow as each day goes by in anticipation of the 2023 Grand Final this Saturday.

The Brisbane Lions meet with an old enemy in Collingwood in a 2003 replay 20 years on. Of course, so much has changed since then; the players and the rules in particular, but one thing hasn't changed.

Both sides have that game-changing player that no matter what position they play, can flip the game on its head and change the direction of the momentum in literally seconds.

Looking back, 2003 had the likes of Nathan Buckley, Michael Voss, Simon Prestigiacomo, and Jason Akermanis, to name a few.

So, we took a look at the stats to see who the likely game-changers are for each side in the build-up to the final gameday of the year.

The contest

Both teams walk into this game with an insanely talented midfield that is dying to move the ball quickly, not allowing the opponent to even go near it. Of course, to give your team the first chance of taking the lead, it all happens at the contest. Giving your team the first chance to score on multiple occasions will be crucial.

Brisbane's game-changer: Lachie Neale

Well, it should come as no surprise that the two-time Brownlow medallist will be vital in this area for Brisbane. He finished the season leading the league in clearances and ranked second in contested possessions. Whilst it seems that Josh Dunkley has taken some pressure off Neale's shoulders this season, Neale will still be the main man to lead the Lions around the ball. If he dominates on the weekend, Brisbane will be premiers thanks to the dangerous forward line he has at his disposal. Neale averages 13.72 contested possessions per game to go along with eight clearances.

Lachie Neale during the round 22 AFL match between St Kilda and Brisbane on August 12, 2022 (Photo by Cameron Grimes / Zero Digital Media)

Collingwood's game-changer: Tom Mitchell

Mitchell has found new form at Collingwood. Leading the club in clearances, you would expect him to be the one to do the dirty work against Neale to allow players like Jordan De Goey and Nick Daicos to get the ball rolling inside 50. Leading the club with contested possessions as well (11.16 per game), his skills are crucial with the next-best contested ball-winner averaging 10.4 (De Goey) but Collingwood's preference would be to have De Goey on the outside to start the link-up. Mitchell will be looking to hit those handballs as he averages 4.76 clearances per game.

Controlling the air

Both side's defences have picked up their game this year as we prepare to see arguably the battle of the best full-backs in the game. Both sides are ranked top six for kicks (Collingwood 6th, Brisbane 3rd) so superiority in the air will be closely examined this Saturday.

Brisbane's game-changer: Harris Andrews

It seems obvious to pick these two players but in reality, it's their teammates who have picked up the responsibility of playing more as a lockdown defender allowing Andrews to free himself up and attack every contest to come down with the intercept mark or kill the play with a spoil. You sense this weekend he will have his hands full with Mason Cox, Brody Mihocek and Darcy Cameron. Andrews averages 7.48 intercepts and 9.7 spoils per game. Andrews has lost 15.9% of his one-on-ones.

Collingwood's game-changer: Darcy Moore

Moore will also have his hands full with Eric Hipwood, Joe Daniher, and occasionally Oscar McInerney. Thanks to Isaac Quaynor's excellent year, Moore has also freed himself up with 8.6 intercepts and 6.9 spoils per game. The difference between these two defenders isn't much, but for the Magpies, they will be hoping Moore will be able to have a free run and jump at the contest.

Darcy Moore during the 2022 AFL Round 1 match between St Kilda and Collingwood (Photo by Cameron Grimes / Zero Digital Media)

Moving the ball

Both teams have players with pin-point precision with their ball skill, which is vital for a team to be successful in the grand final. Players like this are usually the ones trusted to attempt the ambitious kicks or handballs to get the game moving.

Brisbane's game-changer: Keidean Coleman

Last week saw a game-changing performance from Coleman, ultimately setting up Brisbane to book their spot in the Grand Final. But performances like these have been more apparent for the Territory star. Since Daniel Rich stood himself down from selection, Coleman has become the team's new slingshot option with his lethal and smooth kicking action. This season, Coleman has gone at 72.3% efficiency with 68 inside 50s and has been involved in 73 scores. The risk-taker that he is will be a crucial part of the chain when the Lions transition from half-back.

Collingwood's game-changer: Jordan De Goey

Should we say more? His explosiveness singlehandedly put the Magpies in the Grand Final. With an efficiency of 70.2% for his disposals, 98 inside 50s, and 132 score involvements, it just feels like whenever he touches the ball, particularly in this final series, there will be a score as a result. Hovering around the contest will provide a challenge for the Lions to see if they can limit his likely vast influence on the game.

The forwards

To win the game you need to outscore your opponent, but it's also how these scores get generated that will come into the equation. Is the majority going to come from set shots? From stoppages inside 50? Or, will it be from on the run? Caused by a turnover? There are a lot of ways to score but the forwards will have work to do to put their team in the best position.

Brisbane's game-changer: Charlie Cameron

For most of his time in Brisbane, the speedster has been put under pressure for his lack of defensive efforts. But this season, he has silenced the critics and made the opposition nervous on a weekly basis. This season saw Cameron lay 44 tackles inside 50 with 326 pressure acts. Not only has his work inside forward 50 has been good, but it has also helped down back, adding a further 31 tackles to his tally outside the forward 50. 56 goals this season, and if he gets the opportunity to cause a turnover and score, it could be a day out for Cameron.

BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA - SEPTEMBER 09: Charlie Cameron of the Lions celebrates a goal during the 2023 AFL Second Qualifying Final match between the Brisbane Lions and the Port Adelaide Power at The Gabba on September 09, 2023 in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Russell Freeman/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Collingwood's game-changer: Brody Mihocek

With a man down in Daniel McStay, more responsibility falls onto Mihocek. The question floating around Collingwood will be; does he play a supporting forward role for Mason Cox or does he take the reins as the main forward? Mihocek kicked 46 goals this year with 52 marks inside 50 out of a total of 108. Taking this into account, he can play up the ground, dragging Harris Andrews out of defence and putting pressure on the rest of the Brisbane defence to make up ground.

The unexpected hero

Every year we are introduced to a player from each grand finalist who steps up when no one sees it coming. These players go a long way in determining how their team performs on the last Saturday of September, and these players listed are ones we believe could be the unexpected difference.

Brisbane's unexpected hero: Lincoln McCarthy

In terms of his time at Brisbane, this year hasn't exactly been his best but he will still have an important role to play come this Saturday. He has only kicked 26 goals this season; one coming against Collingwood. It is possible with a quiet year he might not get as much attention - unlike his fellow forwards - though an eye still has to be kept on the former Cat. 99 score involvements for the year and was the source of scores 23 times. He is also very calm under pressure, and if the game comes down to the final few minutes as some predict it will, he has kicked game-winners previously (see: 2019 against Geelong).

Collingwood's unexpected hero: Isaac Quaynor

Quaynor has come in leaps and bounds this year for Collingwood; a now-integral part of the defence that has charged into the Grand Final. Ranked 15th for intercepts, Quaynor's job coming up will be his toughest one yet. He will likely take the matchup on Charlie Cameron and if he can halt any damage from the livewire Lion, it might just win Collingwood the flag. Quaynor has only lost 17.2% of one-on-ones with 285 pressure acts. It seems Quaynor's job will be to wear Cameron like a shirt.

Isaac Quaynor during the 2022 AFL Round 1 match between St Kilda and Collingwood (Photo by Cameron Grimes / Zero Digital Media)
Published by
Ryan Saxelby