AFL News

The AFL’s $1 million men – Are they worth it?

We analyse the AFL players reported to be on $1m+ and discuss if it’s money well spent.

Published by
Jack Fitzpatrick

It was reported on Tuesday that as many as six AFL players earned a seven-figure sum in 2021 - a significant portion of the $13.4m salary cap.

But while fans and media alike love to debate who is worth what, it's not as simple as ranking the six best players in the competition and paying them accordingly.

In addition to what a player offers on the field, there are a number of factors that determine just how much they're worth - age, whether they're on an upward or downward spiral, other star players to pay at their club, whether they're in their 'home' state and when they signed their contract, to name but a few.

Here, we look at the players reported to be on $1m or more in 2021 - Dustin Martin, Lance Franklin, Jeremy McGovern, Brodie Grundy and Nat Fyfe - plus a couple tipped to reach that mark in 2022 - Christian Petracca and Tom Lynch - and determine whether it's money well spent ...

Dustin Martin

'Dusty' is a superstar, that isn't up for debate. In fact, he's arguably the best player in the game.

The 30-year-old is a three-time premiership player and three-time Norm Smith medallist - the only player in the game's history to win the Norm Smith three times.

In 2017, when he signed his latest contract with the Tigers, AFL great Leigh Matthews suggested Dusty had played the greatest season in the history of the game.

While debate raged over Matthews' claim, Dusty would go on to win the Brownlow Medal, a premiership, the Norm Smith Medal, Richmond's best and fairest, the AFLPA Leigh Matthews Trophy, the AFLCA champion player of the year award and, of course, selection in the All-Australian team.

Dusty was the best player in the game in 2017, in the prime of his career as a 26-year-old and reportedly had a monster offer on the table from North Melbourne - above $1.5m a season.

Not only does that show his market value at the time, but it meant Richmond had to come to the table with a near-equally large offer.

They did, Dusty re-signed, and the Tigers went on to create a mini-dynasty - winning premierships in 2017, 2019 and 2020.

Including 2022, Dusty still has three years to run on his contract. But you could make an argument he's already justified that deal - and that's before we even take into account his marketability off-field.

Verdict: An easy one, this - Dusty is worth every cent. In fact, the rumoured $1.2 - $1.3 million is probably unders given what he's already done for the club.

Lance Franklin

Let's get straight to the point - entering the 2022 season as a 35-year-old, 'Buddy' is not worth upwards of $1m.

However, it would be remiss of us to look at 2022 in isolation and not the deal as a whole.

Buddy's move to Sydney at the end of 2013 sent shockwaves through the AFL. He was a superstar at Hawthorn, arguably the game's most exciting and marketable player, and he left that season's premiership-winning side.

While Buddy leaving wasn't a huge shock in itself - speculation around his contract was the biggest story throughout the year - the fact he went to Sydney, and not GWS, certainly was.

The nine-year, $10m deal also had many questioning whether Buddy would see it out, given he was already 26 at the time.

But, even with some injury problems in his time at the Swans, there's no doubt Buddy has played some very good football.

Since moving to the harbour city, Buddy has played 136 games and kicked 415 goals (and he's just five short of the magical 1000-goal mark) - leading the Swans' goalkicking tally six times, matching what he did at Hawthorn.

He's also been named an All Australian four times, including as captain in 2018, and won two Coleman Medals - again, he was also a four-time All Australian and two-time Coleman Medal winner at the Hawks.

Crucially, while the Swans haven't won a premiership in his time at the club, they have played in two grand finals. Buddy was more than serviceable in both games too, kicking 4.2 from 14 disposals in 2014 and 1.1 from 16 disposals in 2016.

Not only has Buddy been a star on the field, but he's so incredibly marketable off the field and single-handedly brings people through the gates. In many ways, this is unquantifiable (although I'm sure smarter economists than this writer could give you a decent estimate).

The other factor to consider is how, sometimes, you have to pay overs to pry someone from another club.

As I said above, Buddy was a genuine superstar at the Hawks and they won the premiership in the year he left - if you come to him with an offer similar to what he can get at a club he's already settled at, there's no chance he makes the move.

Add to that how keen GWS were to land him as their marquee player, and it's no wonder he was offered such a big deal - a deal that's also been heavily-backended.

So when we look at Buddy's contract in 2022, we aren't questioning whether or not he's in the game's best few players - because he's not (although he'll still cause headaches for opposition coaches, having kicked 51 goals from 18 games in 2021). Instead, we need to look at the whole deal and what he's brought to Sydney since 2014.

Verdict: In isolation, he's not worth $1m+ in 2022. But looking at the whole picture, it's more than fair.

Jeremy McGovern

At his best, Jeremy McGovern is one of the best defenders in the game.

The master interceptor signed his latest contract - a five-year, six million-dollar deal - in 2018, when he was one of the hottest properties in the competition.

Indeed, in the final round of the Eagles' 2018 premiership year, McGovern broke the AFL record for most intercept marks in a season.

However, while he continued that form by winning his fourth consecutive All Australian gong in 2019, he hasn't been able to reach those heights over the past two seasons.

In fact, across 2020 and 2021, McGovern has played just 27 games (admittedly, 2020 was a shortened season due to COVID).

An inability to get his body right has also seen some in the media question his professionalism - not a question you want hanging over the head of one of the game's highest-paid players.

Curious too is 'why him?'

As said above, he was one of the hottest properties in the game in 2018 when he signed his contract.

But was he ever a realistic chance of leaving the Eagles? Yes, they have to come to the table if other clubs offer big money, but the 'go-home factor' doesn't apply to the North Albany product.

Speaking of the Eagles, there's no doubt their inconsistent form over the past couple of years has hindered McGovern's effectiveness.

He's as good as anyone at dropping off his opponent to intercept the ball or help out his fellow defenders. But a lack of pressure up the ground has led to McGovern being exploited defensively in reason seasons - as he looks to drop off his opponent, the lack of support from teammates allow the opposition to play through his man.

At 29-years-old, he has enough time to recapture his best form - although the Eagles' injury woes could make it hard for him to find it.

And, even if he does, is he significantly better than the likes of Jake Lever, Steven May, Harris Andrews and Jacob Weitering, who all seemed to go past him in 2021?

The jury is out on that one.

Verdict: There's no doubt he's a very, very good player at his best, but a contract this big is hard to justify.

Nat Fyfe

I have to be honest - it might be hard for me to be objective here because I love Nat Fyfe.

I think he's a deadset star.

In my opinion, outside of me he's the best player of the 2009 draft - and that includes Dusty and Max Gawn.

And that's taking nothing away from those two - I said previously that Dusty's $1.2 - $1.3 million a season is almost unders, and I've also been on the record as saying I genuinely think my good mate Max is actually underrated.

But Fyfe is different gravy.

He can do it all - in the air, in the contest, at stoppages and in the forward half.

He's a big man and one of those players who has a presence on the field.

In fact, I believe that, when he's on, he's the most unstoppable player in the game.

There are admittedly knocks on the dual Brownlow Medallist's ball use - especially when kicking at goal.

In 2021, Fyfe kicked 6.21 in 15 games - including 0.6 (from 30 disposals) in Round 4 against Hawthorn.

There are also a couple of other questions over the justification over the colossal six-year deal he signed in 2017.

The first is whether he was ever a genuine chance of leaving the Dockers, given - like McGovern - there was no 'go-home factor' - for the boy from Lake Grace.

However, it's suggested cross-town rivals West Coast were heavily into Fyfe and the Dockers had no choice but to match their valuation.

The second is whether he's on the park often enough.

Fyfe has had a myriad of injury concerns in recent seasons - he was coming off a five-game season in 2016 when signing this long-term contract and, since then, he's managed 15, 20, 14 and 15-game seasons.

But that 20-game season, 2019, is exactly why Fyfe is worth so much.

He polled 33 votes to claim his second Brownlow and was selected as the captain of the All Australian team - his third All Australian gong.

Verdict: Worth every cent - even with my bias towards him I can acknowledge the questions over the deal, but the reality is he can be the most dominant player in the competition and that alone deserves a seven-figure salary.

Brodie Grundy

This is an interesting one.

Brodie Grundy was, along with Max Gawn, by far and away the best ruckman in the AFL when he inked a seven-year deal to stay with Collingwood at the start of 2020.

He had over 1000 hit-outs in 2018 and 2019, averaging over 20 disposals in both seasons and polling 17 and 23 Brownlow votes respectively.

A South Australian, there was a genuine chance Grundy would look to go home when his contract expired - not to mention almost every club in the competition making his signing a priority.

To keep him, Collingwood simply had to come up with a mammoth offer.

And they did.

However, it's been anything but smooth sailing since.

Grundy's form has dropped considerably since inking the seven-year deal.

Don't get me wrong, he's still an above-average ruckman - but he hasn't been anywhere near the dominant player he was in 2018 and 2019.

Melbourne premiership captain Gawn has pulled right away as the best ruckman in the competition, while Grundy is flat-out holding the No.2 position.

Collingwood's form has reflected Grundy's too.

The Pies were a kick away from winning a premiership in 2018 and were again beaten less than a kick in the 2019 preliminary finals.

However, the club just fell into the finals in 2020 - although they did record an excellent win in Perth in their elimination final - before slipping to second-last on the ladder in 2021, with long-time coach Nathan Buckley leaving the club mid-season.

Grundy's big-money contract is also said to be a key factor of the disastrous 2020 trade period, which ultimately saw Rising Star winner Jaidyn Stephenson traded to North Melbourne, gun midfielder Adam Treloar traded to the Western Bulldogs and running machine Tom Phillips traded to Hawthorn.

It is said that the Pies are paying part of the contracts of all three players, and the trade period ultimately led to list manager Ned Guy leaving the club mid-2021.

It's hard to defend any contract which has caused so much turmoil, especially when the player has underperformed since signing it.

However, that's not Grundy's fault and, if he can get himself back to being a standout ruckman - and player - in the competition over the next few seasons, then the big money could still justify itself.

Verdict: The jury's out right now, but we'll know by the time his contract expires in 2027 - and potentially much sooner.

Tom Lynch

By the end of 2018, Tom Lynch was an All Australian, two-time best and fairest winner, four-time club leading goalkicker and current co-captain at the Gold Coast.

However, the media speculation throughout his time at the club always suggested he was 'gettable', likely to come 'home' to Victoria at some stage throughout his career.

And the speculation proved to be right, with Lynch joining 2017 premiers and 2018 minor premiers, Richmond, as a restricted free agent in 2018.

The seven-year deal, which was believed to be heavily-backended, was immediately successful, with Lynch kicking 63 goals - including five in the preliminary final - in 25 games as the Tigers claimed the 2019 premiership.

The Tigers made it back-to-back flags in the COVID-hit 2020 season, with Lynch booting 32 goals in 19 games.

With two premierships in his first two seasons, it's already hard to say that the big-money deal wasn't worth it - regardless of what happens for the rest of it.

Especially given that, despite the mammoth offer, it is believed Lynch sacrificed around $2m across the seven-year deal to make the move to the Tigers.

Verdict: The move has already delivered two premierships and, given it's been heavily-backeneded, that justifies the salary.

Christian Petracca

The Dees' 2021 season, breaking a 57-year premiership drought, was remarkable for many reasons.

But Christian Petracca's grand final performance - arguably the best grand final performance of all time - was as good as anything Melbourne produced.

Taken with pick #2 in the 2014 National Draft, Petracca has always shown plenty of talent but his inconsistency was the source of frustration for Dees fans across his early years in the AFL.

He led the club's goalkicking in 2019 but the penny seemed to drop in 2020, with Petracca improving his fitness and making the move into the midfield.

That saw him win the club's best and fairest and claim his first All Australian guernsey in 2020, making it back-to-back All Australians in the 2021 premiership year.

Petracca has formed a deadly midfield three-piece with Clayton Oliver and Max Gawn, with the star trio supported by the likes of James Harmes, Angus Brayshaw and Jack Viney.

With his ability to hit the scoreboard, either as a midfielder or forward (he kicked 15 goals in 17 games in 2020 and 29 goals in 25 games in 2021), Petracca is a genuine match-winner who is capable of turning a game in the space of a quarter.

At just 26 years of age, the Eastern Ranges product has plenty of footy left ahead of him - if he can continue his form of the past two seasons, he'll go down as one of the Dees' all-time greats.

Verdict: On his past two seasons, especially 2021, he's as good as any player in the competition and deserves to be paid accordingly. The question is whether he can continue to produce that on a consistent basis - if yes, he's well worth it.

Published by
Jack Fitzpatrick