The algorithm pointing toward a close Brownlow count

Over 15% of the data experts’ Brownlow count simulations ended with more than one winner 🤯

SUBSCRIBER | September 17, 2022 - 9:27am

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With the Brownlow Medal count a day away, the team at Stats Insider have crunched the numbers to determine some of the most likely outcomes on Sunday night.

The Stats Insider model has simulated the count 10,000 times, determining the probability of players earning 1, 2 or 3 votes based on a lengthy list of criteria including gameday statistics, historical Brownlow votes, AFL Coaches Association votes and media awards.

Based on their extensive algorithm, 1649 simulations ended with more than one winner, with Lachie Neale and Clayton Oliver presenting as the most likely to share the coveted award, though a joint Oliver and Patrick Cripps win follows close behind.

Speaking to Zero Hanger, Stats Insider's AFL Analyst Greg Butyn explained the process behind the highly touted algorithm, giving some predictions for Sunday night's count.

"Essentially what we try and do is work on a game-by-game basis to try and figure out which players should get the three votes," Butyn said.

"And we find that as a probability, and that probability we can then use into a simulator, so that we can simulate any game and we can give out the six votes."

The Stats Insider team are expecting a close finish, with a two-way tie coming in at just over 15% probability.

"It should be quite a close finish. We actually have the potential for a tie to be 16.5%," Butyn explained.

"So the tie [more than one winner] is at 16.5% of simulations and the most common tie is Neale and Oliver."

Carlton skipper Patrick Cripps is the expected leader after ten rounds, expected to poll heavily between Round 5-10, as is Oliver.

"After Round 5 we say Patrick Cripps probably gets another three 'best ons' in Round 6, 7 and 8," Butyn said.

"Clayton Oliver makes a massive move after Round 5, so Oliver can possibly poll in every game between 6 and 11."

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - JULY 27: Clayton Oliver of the Demons celebrates a goal during the 2019 AFL round 19 match between the St Kilda Saints and the Melbourne Demons at Marvel Stadium on July 27, 2019 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

In terms of the underdogs on Sunday night, Port Adelaide's Connor Rozee is expected to poll better than expected, while Gold Coast skipper Touk Miller shouldn't be ruled out of the conversation.

"Our big one is Connor Rozee to probably over-poll," Butyn told Zero Hanger.

"Someone who probably does have a little bit of a chance who's not getting talked about as much is Touk Miller.

"We have Miller at about 10% to win it overall. He's just outside that top three of Neale, Oliver and Cripps and I would be interested to see how he goes."

Stats Insider's likely winners

Lachie Neale (Brisbane) - 37.1%
Clayton Oliver (Melbourne) - 35.1%
Patrick Cripps (Carlton) - 17.0%
Touk Miller (Gold Coast) - 10.7%
Andrew Brayshaw (Fremantle) - 9.3%