The concerning chink in Fremantle’s gameplan and how they can amend it

Round 1 of the AFL season is well-known for sticking to tradition. The Thursday night opener featuring Richmond and Carlton. A Hawthorn versus Essendon affair. A conventional nine-game round.

And then of course, there's the traditional early overreactions in the media.

Fremantle are likely to be subject to such overreactions after being handed a brutal 78-point loss by Geelong at their Kardinia Park fortress. Through a summer of hype and anticipation, a list build regarded as premiership contending has taken shape in the west.

The Dockers' midfield is star-studded, the defence stoic in the heat of opposition attacks, and their forward line is brimming with emerging talent. Add in an off-season recruiting coup by landing the talents of Shai Bolton as well as draft slider Murphy Reid falling into their lap, it shouldn't be to Fremantle's surprise that the pressure to perform has mounted, seemingly tenfold.

So hence, after a dismal Round 1 display, the AFL media landscape will likely change its tune on Fremantle and subject the Dockers to early criticism.

However, there is a key metric that can resolve Fremantle's continuation of a damning trend. The ongoing trend itself is not positive for the Dockers, but it reveals an aspect amendable in Justin Longmuir's playstyle, which could be the fix that ensures they can rebound against a Sydney outfit hungry to overcome an 0-2 start.

The chink in the armour

An ultra-defensive play style has been symbolic of Longmuir's tenure at the Dockers. In three of Longmuir's five seasons coaching the club, the Dockers have ranked top five for least points conceded (fifth in 2020, second in 2022, fourth in 2024).

While only the latter two seasons have resulted in a positive win-loss record, it's evident that a strong Fremantle defence is the key to winning under Longmuir.

This stingy structure sits hand-in-hand with the Dockers' desire to be in possession of the football. Uncontested possessions, disposals and marks per game are all indicative stats of Fremantle's playstyle, and their more successful seasons have seen them dominate these categories.

The most intriguing statistic is marks per game. Under Longmuir's reign, the Dockers have ranked relatively midtable at sixth, 15th, ninth, sixth and eighth in respective years since 2020.

However, they have recorded more on average than the AFL mean in each year, except 2021. While it may not be the statistic that jumps off the paper, its importance was bare in 2024, and seemingly still is in 2025.

Fremantle Stats Rankings	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025 (After Round 1*)
Disposals	6th	14th	1st	7th	4th	10th*
Uncontested Possessions	6th	12th	1st	5th	2nd	11th*
Marks	6th	15th	9th	6th	8th	18th*

 

The Dockers averaged 93.1 marks per game in 2024. When Fremantle matched or exceeded 93 marks per game, they recorded a win-loss record of 7-1-4. Extrapolating that data slightly back to 90 marks per game, the Dockers recorded a further two wins as well as the draw and four losses.

It's clearly a part of their winning formula, but when stopped by opposition it becomes a liability and chink in their armour.

A trend of buckling to rivals when their marking game is quashed has become glaring, increasingly so when they are restricted to less than 90 marks per game. Their regular reliance on controlled uncontested possession, which indirectly stifles scoring from oppositions, can leave them caught out when the game is not on their terms.

Saturday's performance evidences that thought. Recording just 55 marks - a lower tally than any 2024 performance, it saw the Dockers conceded their highest score since Round 14 last year, when the Bulldogs ran rampant and scored 149.

Fremantle recorded just 69 marks in that game too, well below their season average and once again indicating the statistic's significance in their gameplan.

A marking differential of -55 was also recorded against the Cats, against the Bulldogs it was -42. Predictably, both games saw Fremantle lose by over 11 goals.

In their 2024 upset win against the red-hot Swans, Fremantle secured victory with 105 marks and a differential of +26. It is a non-negotiable for the Dockers to reclaim those sorts of figures on Sunday if they are to stave off a hungry, winless Sydney side.

Likewise for Sydney, the evidence is clear-cut. Stop Fremantle's marking game, and a win is there for the taking.

The fix

So what's the fix if Fremantle find themselves stuck in this situation again? It should be an enhanced focus on metres gained.

Whether Longmuir can make amends on Sunday will be a key watch in the highly-anticipated clash. This increasingly highlighted stat has been one Fremantle have struggled to excel in, ranking 16th, 13th, 12th, 16th and 15th across the last five seasons. However, other top disposal or uncontested possession sides have ascended the metres gained rankings, indicating they are utilising their possession to their advantage in attack.

The same can't be said about Fremantle, however, who are stagnant and deliberate in their approach. The top three sides above Fremantle for disposals (and also the surrounding clubs for uncontested possessions) in 2024 were Essendon, GWS and the Western Bulldogs. Two of those sides made finals - the Bombers didn't, although their chance for the top eight hung in the balance until the latter stages of the season.

All three clubs ranked in the top eight for metres gained in 2024 respectively, with other top metres gained sides including preliminary finalists Geelong and premiers Brisbane.

In 2023, St Kilda and Hawthorn topped the disposal leaderboard. The Saints were the club to play finals and ranked eighth for meters gained while Hawthorn finished a measly 16th, coinciding with a 15th-placed ranking in metres gained.

What should be factored in is that a chunk of high-possession teams' disposals are short kick-mark chains or backwards kicks to find a switch opportunity, or purely keep the ball out of opposition hands.

Hence, Fremantle don't have to upheave their entire structure and gameplan and start averaging the highest metres gained in the league to become a premiership contender. It's not their playstyle to run and gun at the pace of GWS, Hawthorn or Brisbane.

However, a concerted effort and higher emphasis on creating scoring opportunities from their possession could potentially lead to more scores from fewer disposals and therefore, when teams are able to shut Fremantle's marking chains down, there are already scores on the board and a confidence they can counterattack without relying on slow, deliberate passages of ball movement.

The Dockers don't have to reinvent the wheel to contend for a flag. They made finals averaging just the 12th-most metres gained from their league-leading disposal average in 2022.

If Fremantle can adjust their play slightly to average a metres gained figure in the top eight of the competition, it may be the small fix that reaffirms their status as a top team this season.