The 2024 AFL season is shaping up to be the longest-planned season in the league's history, dating back to 1897.
With 23 rounds of matches for each team, four weeks of finals, and three byes distributed irregularly throughout the year, this season will last over seven months.
Are we all prepared for the hard journey ahead?
This season could possibly be one of the most interesting in AFL history. Four different teams have won the Premiership Cup during the last four seasons. Only Geelong has appeared in more than one grand final throughout that time, although it did not make the finals last year as defending champions.
Last year's grand final was an instant classic, decided by less than a kick. That accurately reflected how close and packed the high end of the competition was last year.
The difference between the greatest and worst has steadily narrowed in recent years, and it appears like any side can win on any given day. Except for two or three teams, all have a serious possibility of competing for the flag.
Few foresaw GWS's surge at the start of last season, and even fewer were on board after the first two months. They finished barely a kick away from the grand final.
Predicting what will happen in the next seven months is foolish, but let us take a go nonetheless.ย
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Following Collingwood's heart-stopping 2023 flag, rivals will be changing their game plans to defeat the Magpies.
This occurs every year. Last year, clubs focused more on midfield balance and how to halt Geelong's diverse assault. What is more difficult to predict is which aspects of Collingwood's game rivals will attempt to counter or even replicate.
The most obvious element could be teams practicing late-game situations to counteract the Magpies' impressive record in close games. While teams are likely to train more end-game scenarios, the remaining 98 percent of the game will receive greater attention.
Throughout the preseason, teams have used horizontal spacing more successfully to spread the ground in turnover transition chains of play. Last year, Collingwood used this strategy to pick apart teams.
This serves two purposes: to stretch the opposition's defense and to prepare for other sides to deploy in the opposite direction.
Other clubs will be looking at Collingwood's occasionally messy ball coming from the front of contests, where territory over control was a priority.
Collingwood can get away with this because of its strong defensive setup. Other teams may have less discipline or quality in the back.
The Magpies' success without a traditional spearhead will also tempt sides into more unconventional structures up forward.
Both sides have been increasingly willing to eschew historical set-ups in recent years and the Magpies' success will give them even more leeway.
What did the numbers say?
Before the previous season, it appeared that there was little separation between the competitors. Despite the small gap, it appears to be tighter this year.
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There is no clear favorite entering into the season, or even a side without question marks.
Injuries, tactical alterations, stylistic match-ups, and even the bounce of a single ball may all help distinguish clubs at the end of the season.
Here are ABC Sport's projections for the upcoming season, based on their fixtures, 'Pythagorean' record from the previous year, expected list improvement, and list revisions.
Given how tight it is, take everything with a grain of salt. Anything could happen this year, and it probably will.
The congested pack
According to ABC Sport's estimates, Collingwood is ahead of Geelong by just three victories.
The difference between Geelong (eighth) and Essendon (15th) is likewise about three wins.
That is extremely tight by football standards, and much more problematic when anticipating the future. with short, you may wrap them with a blanket at this time.
There are a few extra things to consider, making predicting what we will see much more difficult than in previous years. Because of the length of the season and some teams' additional in-season byes, teams will have more time to adjust in the middle.
The old adage that availability is the best ability is expected to play a significant role this year as well.
A growing consensus in football circles believes that player availability and injuries are more important than ever before.
The closeness of the competition is that a missing key player or two can put most teams in trouble, with three or more making life nearly impossible.
It would not be a surprise at all if any of the top 15 teams listed above played in the finals. It might only be a mild shock if the bottom three teams find themselves in the mix late in the year, or at least claim a couple of victories over more hyped contenders.
A grand escape?
Two teams, North Melbourne and Hawthorn, have finished in the bottom six during the last four seasons. If you expand that cluster to include the bottom seven, Gold Coast joins them.
But the poorest team in terms of wins and losses over the last two seasons isn't even one of those: it's last year's wooden spooners, the West Coast.
Other clubs have briefly entered that group during the last half-decade, but their names have largely been cemented at the bottom of the ladder.
Each will be looking to rise sooner rather than later, and through various means. Most seasons, one of the bottom four teams advances to the finals the following year.
All four of last year's basement dwellers have reasons to be optimistic about 2024, albeit with varying degrees of ambition.
North Melbourne will be expecting for more stability in its football department, as well as the advancement of some of its highly touted young players. Fans would also be encouraged by a more combative and appealing game style.
West Coast will largely be praying for better luck with injuries and availability of its finest players, which appears to be a pipe dream so far.
While rookies like Reuben Ginbey, Oscar Allen, and Harley Reid have shown promise this preseason, the Eagles' injury list continues to grow.
They will almost certainly beat their ABC Sport projection of one win (rounded up to the nearest whole number), but that should not be the mark of success for the four-time AFL premiers.
Hawthorn has shown some exciting flashes under coach Sam Mitchell, who has been inventive with how he has deployed the talent at his disposal.
The progression of that talent, and how he blends them in with the last of the Hawks' golden era, is the biggest question for those at the club.
Prior to the season, many predicted the Suns would rise from the bottom to the top.
While some of the preseason looked terrible, others demonstrated the system that coach Damien Hardwick is attempting to implement with the team.
It may take some time, as it did with the Giants last year, but expectations are high on the Gold Coast.
If one or two of these four leave, someone must return to the cellar. That is more difficult to work out.
The only seemingly guaranteed aspect of the upcoming season is the uncertainty that the next seven months are expected to bring to football fans across the country.
