A penultimate round full of upsets, nail-biters and embarrassing blowouts leaves us with one round left in the 2021 home and away season.
And what a ride it has been.
At the start of the year NO ONE had predicted:
The list goes on.
Because at the end of the day, the 2021 season has been unpredictable in nature and far from ordinary.
Due to the unpredictability that is the 2021 season, we wont even pretend to know what will happen this last round. That can come later.
Instead, we will again give your team their best and worst case scenarios after the completion of the season heading into the finals series.
Best result:Â 1st
Worst result: 3rd
A win against the Cats will all but solidify the Demons atop of the ladder. If that were to be the case, it will be the first time the gang from Gosch's Paddock have taken the minor premiership since their premiership winning year in 1964.
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Can history repeat itself for the the drought stricken Demons? I'm sure they are hoping so.
But they will first have to travel down the Princes Freeway to GMHBA Stadium and try and defeat the Cats at their fortress for what will be the second time in 15 years.
History is stacked against them, but with Simon Goodwin's troops coming off a three-week period of pure domination, the Demons will be as confident as ever that the time is now to break the hoodoo and create their own history.
The Equation: If they win, they are half a game atop of the ladder. A loss will see them only fall to second if the Dogs win over Port, or third if the Power win.
Best result:Â 1st
Worst result: 4th
Despite an extensive injury list, Geelong managed to survive a scare from a desperate Saints outfit to take down a thrilling game.
Leaving all bad taste of the GWS upset well and truly behind, the Cats ran out the game in dominant fashion, turning the contested battle around after the first quarter and starving the Saints of the football from then on.
It's the level of professionalism that an experienced outfit like Geelong have mastered for so long, but to do so again against the competitions benchmark side will be a different task entirely.
Long are the days when Geelong were able to bully the Demons at the Cattery, with record wins of 233-47 well in the past.
The Demons are a different beast this season and the Cats will be looking to assert themselves after losing to them earlier in the season. With the likes of Patrick Dangerfield, Sam Menegola, Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron back to firing on all cylinders, they will be a big chance to do so.
The Equation: A good win spells a top of the table finish for the Cats, provided Port don't catch up in percentage with a big win over the struggling Dogs. A loss will drop the Cats as low as fourth if results fail to go their way, with a rematch against the Demons pencilled in for their first week of finals.
Best result:Â 1st
Worst result: 4th
Despite being labelled "flat-track bullies" and failing to perform against the competitions best over the course of the season, the Power have managed to guarantee themselves another double chance come finals.
Edging closer to full strength has been monumental for Port Adelaide, with Ken Hinkley's group winning their last five games behind some of their returning stars. Connor Rozee and Zak Butters have been important, whilst Orazio Fantasia has helped reinvigorate a forward line struggling to make the most of their opportunities.
A brutal 95-point demolition of the lacklustre Blues has pumped Ports percentage to 127.3, edging them to within arms reach of the other top four players. The aforementioned players had big games, with Charlie Dixon making the most of his opportunities beating up on All -Australian hopeful Jacob Weitering kicking four goals straight. With Ports forward line at full strength, it will be a scary proposition for any top four side come finals.
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Their first test of how they stack up to the best will be when they take on the underperforming Dogs in round 23. A win will not only put them in great position for finals with a likely home final, but also prove any remaining "flat-track" doubters wrong.
The Equation: A healthy win and a small Geelong win can see Port Adelaide jump the Cats on percentage becoming back-to-back minor premiers for the first time since the 2002-2004 Power side, a side in which won one premiership during that era. A loss can see them only fall as far as fourth, still guaranteeing themselves a finals double chance.
Best result:Â 2nd
Worst result:Â 5th
It's all falling apart at the wrong end of the season for Bevo's men.
Consecutive losses for the first time for the season has the Bulldogs wondering, with the irrelevant Hawks managing to take another big scalp at their expense.
Josh Bruce's ACL injury has looked worrisome for the Bulldogs forward half, who now lack multiple key targets going forward. Aaron Naughton will be wearing a lot more responsibility, a task that he wasn't able to meet on the weekend in Tassie. But it wasn't necessarily the big jugger-Nuaght's fault however.
It's not only the front half that the Dogs are lacking. Their strength for a majority of the season has been their midfield, with contested ball and clearance work being their bread and butter. It is now the area of their game that has experienced the biggest drop off, with their last month being a "cause for concern" for St Kilda champion Leigh Montagna.
"If you have a look at the numbers from the last month, it is a cause for concern." Montagna said on Fox Footy's First Crack. "They are getting beaten up in contested possessions, they are getting beaten in clearance and they are getting scored against from clearance which is a big concern."
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"When you've only got 32 inside 50's, you're going to find it very hard to win games of football...they need to go to work on their midfield mix, particularly their centre bounce work. Over the last month they're 17th in the competition for centre bounce."
The Dogs will need to address these concerns and do so quickly, with time running out before finals.
The Equation: The Dogs must win against Port Adelaide to ensure they get the double chance. With a win for Geelong they can jump to second and play what will be a home final against the Demons. If the Demons win then they will be forced be hosted by Geelong in the first week of finals. A loss will have them praying Brisbane don't catchup on percentage, as if they do the Dogs will fall out of the top four for the first time since round 3.
Best result: 4th
Worst result:Â 6th
The Lions are within arms reach of the top four after another dominant win on the weekend.
It's funny how big the difference can be from the start of a season toward the completion. Round 3 delivered heartbreak for the Pies when a clutch Zac Bailey goal after the siren saw the Lions get a miraculous first win of the season. Fast forward to round 22 where the two teams have gone in vastly different directions, illustrated by the Lions clinical 85 point battering of the coachless Maggies.
More importantly however is the run of form Brisbane are getting in the lead up to finals after what was initially a disappointing handful of games directly after Eric Hipwood's season ending ACL injury.
The Lions forward line have finally started to gel in Hipwood's absence, with Charlie Cameron, Joe Daniher and Daniel McStay back in full flight. 12 goals between them against the Pies is the positive confidence boost needed before they head into finals.
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The Lions will get another opportunity to iron out their game before finals with a home game against the disappointing Eagles. The Eagles have struggled the back half of the year and will provide the Lions with a big opportunity to make up the five goal percentage difference with the Dogs to leap frog into the top four.
The Equation: A nice win over the Eagles and loss to the Dogs will see Lions sneak their way into the top four. If the Dogs win however the Lions will have to run it up from outside the four. A shock loss to the Eagles at home and a win for the Swans will drop the Lions down to 6th. Finishing fifth or sixth will not only mean they miss out on the double chance, but will potentially come across either GWS or Essendon, two teams that are in scintillating form of their own.
Best result: 5th
Worst result:Â 6th
Once with a unrivalled winning streak heading into finals, the Swans have had a somewhat mediocre fortnight. A shock loss to the Saints was followed up by a less than convincing 14-point win over the bottom of the table Kangaroos.
And it unfortunately came at a big cost.
Injuries to running machine Nick Blakey (season ending leg break) and Josh Kennedy will have the Swans desperate to fill the gaps prior to their last game against the Suns.
Coming up against the largely disappointing Suns should be the light drill-work necessary for the Swans to tinker with their lineup and still get a comfortable win. With not a lot to play for in regards to position on the ladder, it might be another opportunity to rest some of their big guns like they did against the Kangaroos with Buddy Franklin.
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The Equation: Best case scenario sees the Swans in fifth, worse case 6th so not a whole lot on the line. Either way a "home" final is guaranteed for the Swans even though it will likely be at a neutral ground. Like the Lions, a fifth or sixth finish will be a scary proposition with the either the Giants, Essendon or Fremantle to come who all have damaging form to contend with.
Best result:Â 7th
Worst result:Â Miss finals
The Giants are determined to be a part of the finals equation, with back-to-back impressive wins helping them stay half a game atop of the chasing pack behind.
On the back of a destructive performance from the midfield group, the Giants were able to run off to an eight goal half time lead against the reigning premiers. New Giant for life Josh Kelly feasted on the Tiger carcass and led from the front with one of his most dominant performances to date.
And no Toby Greene? No worries.
Tim Taranto was instrumental to the Giants first half blowout, kicking four first half goals alongside Harry Himmelberg and Daniel Lloyd who kicked three and two of their own first half goals.
The Giants are firing on all cylinders heading into finals and have only the lowly Blues in their way of finals. With the run of form on display, a spot in the eight is for the Giants to lose.
The Equation: The attitude has to be win and they finish 7th, lose and they're out. Even though they can lose and hope for results to go their way, it is a risk that the Giants would not be willing to take. They have a great opportunity to head into finals in emphatic style against the Blues and would not want to leave anything to chance after their loss to the Saints in the final round of the 2020 season costing them finals. A repeat of this would be devastating to a young group that have overcome a long list of obstacles to be in the equation once again.
Best result:Â 7th
Worst result:Â Miss finals
The Bombers are storming into September to hopefully break their wild finals win drought.
Without making fun of the past, the Bombers are in fact running it up at the right end of the year and are in the box seat to take the last spot in the eight.
Another emphatic win at the expense of the Suns has jumped them into 8th on the ladder at the expense of the lacklustre Eagles.
A final round clash against the equally abysmal Magpies looks will means a spot in finals is for the Bombers to lose. And taking recent form into account, it will be far from the case.
Jake Stringer has been enormous for the Bombers. One of the most inform players in the competition, Stringer has solidified himself as a genuine "match-winner" for Essendon with another video game performance of 18 touches that included 11 score involvements and five goals. If he continues to fire, the Bombers are not a team anyone would want to meet first week of finals.
They still have a job to finish, with their arch enemies determined to spoil their season with an upset win over the Bombers. Many Bomber fans will not be feeling comfortable until the song is blasting through an empty stadium. For their sake, let's hope the young side can deliver.
The Equation: Win and they finish eighth or seventh if GWS suffer a shock loss at the hands of the Blues. Lose and they have to sweat on both the Eagles and Dockers games, hoping for both WA sides to stumble.
Best result:Â 7th
Worst result:Â Miss finals
West Coast have one last chance to make up for what has been a horrid 2021 season.
It was topped off last night with their first WA derby loss in 11 meetings to the young and emerging Dockers side that were far from full strength themselves.
A win over the Lions will not only spoil their plans on top four, but will give a glimmer of hope of finishing the season in the eight.
Results will need to go their way if they win, but putting their best foot forward has to be the only focus for Adam Simpson's men.
A nasty knee injury to Tim Kelly will not help their case of causing a last round upset, with it likely that Eagles most consistent player will miss the remainder of the season.
With an ageing list, the most likely scenario will be the Eagles have an early holiday before an intense pre season with hopes of running it back up next season.
The Equation: An upset win plus either the Bombers or Giants losing is enough to scrape their way into the finals picture.
Best result: 7th
Worst result:Â Miss finals
An undermanned and underestimated Dockers outift headed into their derby matchup losing the last 11. It was all stacked against them as they went to try and knock off their bigger cross-town rivals for the first time since 2015.
A special effort led by a 31 disposal and two goal BOG from Caleb Serong saw the Dockers keep their finals aspirations alive in front of a 50,000+ Optus Stadium crowd.
The belief around the young Dockers group is infectious with coach Justin Longmuir and 353-game gun David Mundy leading his troops to back to back home game epics.
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There is no doubting that it will be a tough task for Fremantle if they sneak their way into finals, but it will be a season that will likely spark a fire in the young squad for seasons to come.
The final hurdle standing in their way are the Saints, who will be determined to make up their 350+ point differential to make finals. But in all seriousness, Fremantle will need their best football to overcome a team that will be looking to finish a disappointing season on a high.
The Equation: A win along with losses to at least two of either the Eagles, Bombers and Giants will be enter finals in the back door. An unlikely scenario but still a chance. A loss is guaranteed end of the season with a number of what-if games throughout the season likely looked back on unfavourably.
Best result: 8th
Worst result:Â Miss finals
Both losing their games against the Giants and Cats have all but put the last nail in the coffin for both seasons.
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Both sides promised more than they were able to deliver in 2021, with extended breaks given to find a response for 2022.
Technically still a chance but also no way in hell they will. The Tigers need a couple of 100+ results whilst the Saints need to make up an approximate 60 goal deficit to claw their way back in the eight.
Can they do it?
No, they can't.
The Equation: Big wins and hope for a salary cap breach or another drug saga from a number of teams above them. Otherwise their season is well and truly finito.
| P | W | L | PTS | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SYD | 23 | 17 | 6 | 68 | 126.7 | |
| 2 | PORT | 23 | 16 | 7 | 64 | 114.8 | |
| 3 | GEEL | 23 | 15 | 8 | 60 | 112.2 | |
| 4 | GWS | 23 | 15 | 8 | 60 | 109.1 | |
| 5 | BL | 23 | 14 | 8 | 58 | 121.9 | |
| 6 | WB | 23 | 14 | 9 | 56 | 125.1 | |
| 7 | HAW | 23 | 14 | 9 | 56 | 118.5 | |
| 8 | CARL | 23 | 13 | 10 | 52 | 110.2 | |
Does your side still have a chance at September action? How do you think the final round will play out? Let us know what you think in the comments!