The four AFL youngsters in need of a defining fourth year

In an athlete's professional career, there comes a moment or a season when big questions get asked.

Questions such as 'Is this player going to make it or not?'

Development is never linear. But in our game, it's often thought that your first 50 games are the most difficult when it comes to development. Only then, once you've hit the first milestone, most players start to work out what you can and can't do.

Some players entering their fourth seasons in 2025 have already put significant runs on the boards and laid down markers.

Nick Daicos, at just 21 years old, has claims to be the best player in the game already. Sam Darcy has shown in just his first 28 games that he is the next great key forward in the game. And Jason Horne-Francis has delivered thus far on all the qualities that made him one of the most hyped No.1 draft picks.

Others are on the runway too. A pair of Saints in Mitch Owens and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera are leading the charge of the young group at Moorabbin. Jye Amiss and Mac Andrew are coming as part of that next group of key position superstars. Finn Callaghan and Connor Macdonald have emerged as top-line talents at their clubs for the next generation. And then there's Kai Lohmann, who cemented his place as a young superstar on the rise with a breakout season and grand final performance, which sent him rocketing up the charts amongst the best small forwards in the game.

But with all the hits and up-and-coming superstars, some are still treading water and finding their way, including some from the very top of their class.

Here we name four members of the 2021 AFL Draft who are at a critical juncture in their young careers.

Josh Rachele

Crows star Josh Rachele enters the year with big question marks hovering over him.

The promise and talent is undeniable. 30 goals from 22 games last season, 23 goals from 21 the year before, and locked in on a massive contract through to the 2029 season.

The idea of the pairing of Rachele with fellow Crows livewire Izak Rankine in the forward line is enough to have pure footy fans salivating. Yet there's still this lingering question mark over whether or not the Shepparton product is tough enough for the big leagues.

Rachele was dropped for the last round of the 2024 season, failing to meet club standards after the pre-Showdown barb about Port fans fell flat. It prompted some thought bubbles that maybe Rachele wouldn't even make it to the end of his contract at the Crows and go seek a fresh start.

According to reports, his training standards this pre-season have been those of an individual who knows he fell short of the mark in many areas last season and is leaving no stone unturned to grow and develop into a leader at the club on and off the field. It's the development that hasn't gone unnoticed by some Crows leaders.

"He's been electric, he's a really hard worker … so it's no surprise he's improved as much as he has," Crows vice-captain Ben Keays told reporters in January.

His captain, Jordan Dawson echoed Keays' remarks.

“Josh, he's probably one of those guys – no one puts more pressure on him than him, and he's always looking to improve,” he said.

“His attitude has been fantastic.

“He actually had a really good year last year and he's been phenomenal on the track pre-Christmas.

“The shape he's in right now … he wants to get better and he wants to get better in a hurry.

“And I'm really excited by what he's going to bring as a footballer but also in the leadership space because he wants that, and he has been training exceptionally well.”

Jesse Motlop

The opportunity facing Jesse Motlop this year is a big one. The title of being the number one small forward at Carlton is there for the taking.

Motlop has shown glimpses and flashes of what he can be thus far in his 42 games. Yet, he's only kicked 40 goals in this time, and only 13 times has he kicked multiple goals in a game.

This time last year, all the buzz was about how strong a summer Motlop was having on the pre-season track and how a big year was on the horizon. All for it to come tumbling down in the second pre-season game against Melbourne when he stubbed his toe, which started his spiral.

A strained hamstring while rehabbing delayed his start to the season even further, restricting the small forward to just seven games in 2024, including the final against Brisbane.

This year, the messaging is all the same. Motlop has been a standout on the training track, buzzing about in the match simulation and hitting PBs in the running. To the eye, it looks as if he's put on some extra muscle and filled into his body a little more.

It makes 2025, his fourth season, a big one for Motlop, with the lingering question of 'What type of player does he want to be?'

He's shown he's a far better player than his season average of 7.7 disposals, 2.1 tackles and 0.9 goals a game reads.

Out of contract at season's end, it adds another element to the Jesse Motlop narrative for 2025.

Neil Erasmus

It's hard breaking into a star-studded Dockers midfield at the best of times. However, Neil Erasmus might just have to make it happen for himself this year.

The former Pick 10 selection only managed four senior games in 2024. Having only played 23 games across his first three years, the 21-year-old is facing a reckoning heading into his fourth season - the last on his current contract.

He's proven too good for the level below, securing a best-on-ground medal in Peel Thunder's premiership win last season, capping a dominant campaign averaging 28.2 disposals across 17 games in the WAFL.

He amassed over 30 possessions on eight occasions for Peel Thunder last year but still couldn't break into the Dockers' AFL side.

It appears that after a strong pre-season this might be the year that Erasmus finally breaks into the Fremantle side, with fellow midfielder Caleb Serong saying he is “in ridiculous shape” and has thrived in the physicality side of things this summer.

Speaking about Erasmus and fellow fourth-year midfielder Matthew Johnson, Serong couldn't contain his excitement about the extra dimension the Dockers could add to its midfield.

“The size of those two for fourth-year guys is unbelievable. They're massive; they're physical and embracing that side of the game, they understand that when they come in, that's going to be their role when they come in - to hit bodies and be physical.” Serong told reporters last month.

Erasmus opted against a trade away from Fremantle during the last player movement period despite rival interest and lack of opportunities, committing to staying at home and fighting it out.

Now comes the hard part; staying in the side that is pushing for big things.

Ben Hobbs

It's getting close to crunch time for Ben Hobbs.

The same can be said about several Essendon youngsters, but 2025 has all the hallmarks of a make-or-break season for the young Essendon midfielder.

Touted by draft experts as one of the top midfield prospects in his draft pool, Hobbs slid down to Pick 13, where the Bombers swooped on him.

Despite 47 games in three seasons, were teams at the top of the draft right to overlook him given his current output at the level?

Hobbs has had his injury troubles across his first three seasons, which at times have stalled his development and seen his place in the midfield pecking order drop, with a mid-season draftee (Sam Durham) and SSP signing (Nic Martin) zooming past him up the list of best young midfielders at the Bombers.

He's had an uninterrupted pre-season and is firming to take his place in Opening Round against the Suns.

Hobbs has his destiny in his own hands, and 2025 looms as a big season for the tough onballer who is out of contract at season's end.