The key factors behind Carlton’s late-season decline

Four months into their 2024 campaign, Carlton looked primed for their best premiership charge since Michael Voss took the reins.

After 16 Rounds, and 15 games played, the Blues held a six-point buffer on the ladder in second spot, a home final plus a double-chance presenting to a fanbase hungry for success. Carlton had won its last five on the trot, including a six-goal win over Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, and a merciless 63-point smashing against Geelong.

Just a month and a half later, Carlton are out of the eight. Losing five of their last six, the Blues' sole win since Round 16 came against cellar-dwelling North Melbourne. Their heaviest loss came on the weekend against Hawthorn, as the injury-ravaged Blues conceded a 74-point defeat to be kicked out of the top eight by percentage.

Now with two home and away games left to come in 2024, Carlton are teetering on the edge of missing finals. How did they get here?

Drowned by the Orange Tsunami

Leading by 39 points late in the first term, Carlton looked set for a sixth consecutive win, as they once again flourished against quality opposition. The Blues piled on eight first-quarter goals in destructive fashion, with Harry McKay and Zac Williams scoring three majors each in just 30 minutes of football.

However, that's where the positives stopped for Carlton, and it's the last time we saw such ruthless form from the Blues this season.

From their 39-point margin, the Blues would then concede 15 goals to three-quarter-time, whilst only scoring another three themselves. In a remarkable 75-point turnaround, the Blues' lead had vanished by just half-time and they were left with a six-goal deficit at the siren of the third term.

A valiant last quarter was not enough to counter GWS' surge, ith the Blues drowned by a free-flowing Orange Tsunami.

One-man show

If one person cannot be faulted throughout Carlton's decline, it's Patrick Cripps. Averaging 27.4 disposals in his last five games, alongside 15.4 contested possessions, the Blues' captain has led from the front despite the team's poor results.

These results can rather be attributed to the array of out-of-form players surrounding Cripps. Sam Walsh's form has slightly dipped, averaging 1.5 less clearances, two less contested possessions, and one less inside 50 per game. It's small margins, but enough to burden Cripps with extra weight to carry.

The key forward pairing of Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow have not been damaging lately either, with Curnow held goalless for the first time in 66 games against Collingwood, whilst McKay's average has receded below two goals per game in his last four appearances.

Jacob Weitering, often a pillar in defence, was exposed against a fast-running Hawthorn. In defensive one-on-one contests, Weitering has lost 22.2% in his last five games, compared to a season average of just 10%.

Defensive pressure has decreased all across the ground too. The Blues are ranked third for tackles inside 50 this season, averaging 11.6 per game. In their last five games however, they average just six, the worst for any club since Round 17.

Using Wheelo ratings for Carlton's statistics, there has been a clear decline across all areas of the field.

Evidently, Carlton as a unit have lost touch from their purple patch six weeks ago. Defenders are being beaten by their opponent more often, midfielders are struggling in the contest, and the forward line's pressure and efficiency has dialled down drastically.

And then, of course, an injury crisis strikes.

Untimely injuries

With two games to go in the 2024 home and away season, Carlton will play West Coast (away) and St Kilda (home) to close out their season. Many fans would have had these games crossed off as smooth-sailing wins for the Blues, yet a day of carnage in Round 22 has presented the Eagles and Saints with a sniff.

In a nightmare afternoon, the Blues recorded six injuries against Hawthorn, with Charlie Curnow (ankle), Jack Martin (hamstring), Lachie Fogarty (shoulder), Adam Saad (hamstring), Jordan Boyd (adductor) and Harry McKay (quad) all to be sidelined or fighting for fitness in the final fortnight of the season.

Questions circle over Carlton's medical staff for allowing Curnow to play on an ankle injury that nearly ruled him out of the Hawthorn clash. Missing the two-time Coleman medallist in even one of the final two games could be the determining factor that ends Carlton's top eight aspirations.

The injuries from the Hawthorn loss increase a large tally of key outs for Carlton. Players still yet to recover from previous injuries include Tom De Koning (lung/foot), Adam Cerra (hamstring), Matthew Cottrell (shoulder) and Orazio Fantasia (calf).

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Is the season salvageable?

Despite media and fanfare illuding to Carlton's season being over, the Blues' softer fixture gives them every opportunity to qualify for September action. The Blues will likely still head in as strong favourites against 16th-placed West Coast and 14th-placed St Kilda, and percentage-boosting wins, or favourable results, will provide the Blues with a spot in the finals.

The timeline of injured stars Curnow, McKay and Saad remain unconfirmed for now, but missing any of these key cogs come finals time will leave a gaping hole. De Koning is projected to return in September however, as is Cerra. Although the late-season carnage has been inopportune, perhaps Carlton's fortune will change with some favourable returnees, should the Blues be competing in finals footy.