A year is a long time in football.
Just under 12 months ago, Collingwood were the kings of the AFL, securing a record-equalling 16th V/AFL premiership, their first since 2010. Darcy Moore was arguably the competition's best captain, Nick Daicos equally as arguable for the best player in the game.
But after the 2024 season, the Magpies find themselves not only without a second premiership medal, but without any participation in September. The Pies finished ninth, recording just 12 wins, with nine losses and two draws.
Plenty went awry for Collingwood in 2024 to end up in the position they did. So, what were the key factors behind the Pies' demise, and a failed flag defence?
Underperforming and injured stars
Whilst Nick Daicos is a Brownlow favourite, and Darcy Cameron earned an All-Australian squad nomination, nearly every other player took a backwards step in 2024. A collective drop off in form from multiple key players understandably impacted Collingwood's performance this year.
Let's start with the backline.
Most notable is Darcy Moore, who came under heavy scrutiny from media personalities during the season.
Moore had an underwhelming campaign in 2024, averaging three less disposals than 2023, and one less intercept possession and intercept mark. A reliable defensive general in Collingwood's premiership year, Moore was often a shell of his former self.
Brayden Maynard averaged less disposals and pressure acts in 2024 too. Maynard's metres gained per game improved significantly however, albeit it didn't improve how damaging he was going forward, with his score involvements per game decreasing this season.
John Noble, the heartbreak story of 2023, was unable to transfer his pent-up energy into a stronger season, recording identical, if not worse, figures to last season. Noble's rebound 50s decreased, as did his metres gained, and his pressure acts and intercept possessions were similar to the year that left him out of the best 22.
Isaac Quaynor's impact on games has dropped away considerably also. Whilst maintaining his defensive pressure, Quaynor's ability to break lines and spark a counterattack disappeared in 2024.
Quaynor averaged just 12.8 disposals, compared to 16.2 in 2023, and his metres gained decreased by 71.8 per game. Other components of Quaynor's game, such as rebound 50s (-1), uncontested and contested possessions (-1.3, -1.8), and intercept possessions (-2.6) declined too.
These poorer individual seasons could be viewed as just minorly worse, however when combined together, they created a serious problem for the Pies. Collingwood conceded 84.5 points on average this season, a dramatic increase from 2023 where they just conceded an average of 73.3. This shifted Collingwood from the third-best defensive side in 2023 to the 12th.
Nathan Murphy's medical retirement from concussion was, in hindsight, potentially the change that initially began to sink the metaphorical defensive ship.
Even more cracks formed in Collingwood's midfield.
Father Time finally seemed to catch up with 33-year-old Steele Sidebottom, as his disposal and clearance figures declined in 2024.
Sidebottom recorded one less inside 50 and score involvement on average, and his disposal efficiency also failed to maintain or improve from his premiership season.
Scott Pendlebury's output unsurprisingly slightly declined in 2024, yet still remained solid as he eyes a 20th season at 37 years old. However, no one stood up as the successor to Pendlebury's position for seasons to come, as Jack Crisp and Josh Daicos had near identical, if not worse seasons than 2023.
Crisp averaged one less disposal and the same inside 50s per game as his premiership season, whilst the older Daicos brother averaged the same disposals but one less inside 50.
Then of course were the injuries to Jordan De Goey and Tom Mitchell which interrupted their years heavily. De Goey played just 13 games in 2024, Mitchell managing only six.
They left big shoes to fill, and despite the valiant efforts of young recruits, it was like a size six wearing a size 13.
Mitchell averaged 25 disposals in 2023, as well as 3.6 inside 50s and 4.8 clearances. Lachlan Sullivan averaged 12.9 disposals, 1.7 inside 50s and 1.9 clearances from his ten appearances at the highest level, whilst Ned Long averaged 8.4 disposals, 1.7 inside 50s and 0.7 clearances from his seven selections in the side.
Finlay Macrae was viewed as a potential breakout weapon for Collingwood in 2024, but his potential too failed to come to fruition. Just ten disposals per game with two inside 50s and two clearances in nine appearances, Macrae was regularly the substitute or subbed out - as was Sullivan and Long.
Evidently, luck was not on Collingwood's side injury-wise, but the ineptness from their young crop let the Pies down massively when de Goey and Mitchell were out of the side. Once again, these small decreases in form, as well as an injury-riddled unit, left Collingwood with a poorer output in 2024.
Overall, Collingwood's inside 50s per game decreased by 2.9, their disposals per game decreased by 21.5, which ranked them third-worst in the competition, and their clearances marginally increased by 0.4.
It only takes a glance to see a downward trend in key statistics for Collingwood's forward line too.
Jamie Elliott still led the Magpies for marks inside 50, however his average decreased from 2.5 to 1.9. Brody Mihocek equally declined from 2.2 to 1.6, whilst Lachie Schultz slightly increased his output from 1.2 to 1.4.
Goalkicking-wise, Bobby Hill led the Pies tally with a mere 30 goals. Had Mihocek played more than 11 games perhaps the Pies could have had a 40-goal player, but even so, Mihocek averaged just 1.7 goals per game compared to his 2.0 in 2023.
Schultz snagged nine less goals than he had at Fremantle, Elliott averaged less per game, whilst Beau McCreery only managed ten goals compared to his 17 in the premiership year.
Only Hill improved his score involvements per game significantly, up by 1.1. Every other forward had a near identical or fairly worse average in 2024.
Upon reflection, the Schultz replacement of Jack Ginnivan appears to not have been the upgrade Collingwood were after. Compared to Ginnivan's 2023 statistics, Schultz looks the better choice, averaging 0.3 goals more and 1.1 more score involvements.
However, side by side in 2024, Ginnivan has maximised his potential in Hawthorn colours, and Schultz's contribution is mediocre in comparison.
| Stats | Goals | Shots on Goal | Score Involvements | Disposals | Inside 50s | Marks inside 50 | Tackles inside 50 |
| Jack Ginnivan | 26 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 16.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Lachlan Schultz | 24 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 12.2 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
Overall, Collingwood's attack has taken a hit with their forward line's inconsistencies. The Pies are ranked eighth for goals per game in 2024, compared to third in 2023. This is despite averaging more shots on goal in 2024, which leads into the next point of their accuracy.
In 2023, Collingwood had the best goalkicking accuracy in the AFL at 52.5%. In 2024 it dropped significantly to 47.1%, ranked 13th in the league. Collingwood are remarkably efficient at scoring from their inside 50 entries, ranked second for a rate of 48.2%, however their ability kick through the middle sticks hampered their chances at a flag defence this year.
The Pies chemistry in the forward line seemed to decline in 2024 too, recording 7.4 fewer score involvements per game, dropping from a rank of third in 2023 to 12th this year. Marks inside 50 also dropped by 1.1 per game in 2024.
Clearly, the Magpies' masterful ways of 2023 were found out by opposition in 2024, and the once bold and daring Pies have lost their magic flair, for now. A decline across all aspects of the ground demonstrates that Magpies players underperformed or were unable to improve their impact this season, and key injuries left a void too difficult to overcome.
However, the Magpies weren't just having problems on-field. The headaches of off-field, executive instability ruptured the steadfast Magpies of years previous.
Off-field instability
Off-field drama always tends to harm on-field performance. Melbourne have dealt with numerous off-field controversies since 2023 and it led to a woeful 14th-placed finish this year, a steep drop-off not even those who expected a fall from grace could've anticipated.
Adelaide's 2018 pre-season camp left scars for years, the Crows still yet to play finals since their 2017 grand final appearance.
For Collingwood this year, there was initially Graham Wright's sabbatical that began in March, an ill-timed departure for the Collingwood football club, who had to reshuffle its board to fill the void of Wright's responsibilities.
Nine's Matthew Lloyd said in July that Wright's leave caused "too much change" amongst the football department at Collingwood.
"The game stops for no one. So Collingwood, in this situation, then changed everyone's roles. Assistant coaches changed their positions, Brendan Bolton changed his position, Justin Leppitsch changed his position. Too much change," Lloyd said onย Footy Classified.
Then there was the racism bombshell for CEO Craig Kelly, which Collingwood have since denied the allegations. However, the allegations further destabilised the future of Collingwood's executives and football department overall.
Chris Fagan and Alastair Clarkson have spoken numerously about the draining impact the Hawthorn racism saga has had on the club, let alone themselves. It would be unsurprising if Kelly's embroilment is having the same effect at the Magpies.
No hunger as the hunted?
A topical point of interest in Collingwood's failed flag defence has been their lack of hunger this year.
In Collingwood'sย Take the Stepsย documentary, captain Darcy Moore vulnerably spoke on the mental toll a premiership season had, and the overwhelming feeling of relief once achieving the AFL's pinnacle of success.
"To lose that game, we did it last year and we lost... and you know you have to do it all again," Moore said on the mental strength it took after the 2022 preliminary final loss.
Perhaps the Pies became mentally fatigued. McRae reflected after the Pies' 0-3 start that he would turn to "hungrier" players, so the writing may have been on the wall early in the season.
Yet, McRae also reflected that the mindset of the hunted was "an interesting take" and noted an extra two or three wins may have put his side in the top four come seasons end.
"I think the reality of the game is this game's never been closer... you only need small margins between right now where we're sitting (ninth) and then obviously playing in September," McRae said.
2025 and beyond
The question on Collingwood now shifts from 'can they back it up?' to 'can they bounce back?' in 2025.
Maintaining veterans Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Jeremy Howe and Will Hoskin-Elliott will assist is sustaining experienced leaders on-field and in the locker room, however a lack of youth to come through the ranks places worrying concerns over the long-term future of the Pies.
The Magpies will also be targeting a livewire forward if possible, given their struggles in attack this year. Jake Stringer was linked to joining the black and white, however he is more likely to become a Swan if he leaves Tullamarine at all. Rory Lobb has been linked too, although he has transitioned into a defender role since his trade rumours were unearthed.
Ideally, a settled board and football department will assist in Collingwood retuning its focus back onto strong on-field results, and a year of disappointment may reinvigorate Collingwood to strive for premiership success again.
It's impossible to rule out the Magpies for finals contention in 2025 however, considering Brownlow fancy Nick Daicos is on the list. A healthy Jordan De Goey also spells trouble for the opposition, as would a healthy Tom Mitchell.
The potential still remains for Collingwood, and given they finished the year just percentage away from finals, 2024 may go down as just a blip on the radar.
