Two-time Coleman Medal winner Charlie Curnow is favoured to make it three titles in as many years, with the next four rounds set to decide the 2024 Coleman Medal race as five fellow contenders look to cause an upset.
Curnow and Carlton are scheduled to face Collingwood this weekend, while the Blues meet Hawthorn, West Coast and St Kilda this year for the first time in 2024.
After kicking a combined 19 goals in his two matches against the Eagles last year, Curnow will be licking his lips ahead of Round 23, where he could put himself out of reach of the chasing pack.
Since the start of his career, Curnow has faced the Magpies, Hawks, Eagles and Saints a combined 26 times for a return of 69 goals, but taking away those past two games against West Coast his average drops to just over two goals per game.
Already one of just two players since 2005 to claim successive Coleman Medals, Curnow could become the seventh player in the game's top flight to claim three successive gongs, snapping a three-decade drought.
He would join the elite company of Dick Lee (1907-1909), Gordon Coventry (1926-1930), Fred Fanning (1943-1945), John Coleman (1949-1953), John Peck (1963-1965) and Gary Ablett Sr. (1993-1995) to make it three Coleman Medals in a row.
The Blues spearhead will have some competition to do so however, with none more threatening than GWS veteran Jesse Hogan, who trails the reigning winner by just three goals with four games left in the home and away season.
Hogan has meetings with Hawthorn, Brisbane, Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs to see out the season, with his career record against those sides seeing a return of 82 goals from 33 games. In 2024, having faced the Hawks, Lions and Dogs already, Hogan has kicked just five goals in three games against those opponents.
Gold Coast young gun Ben King currently sits on the podium and could usurp Hogan with a big enough bag against an undermanned West Coast outfit this Friday, with King, who sits seven goals off his GWS counterpart, needing to more than double his three-goal effort against the Eagles earlier this year to even level Hogan.
King has matches against Melbourne, Essendon and Richmond to finish his side's H&A campaign, with the Bombers and Tigers joining West Coast among the bottom-four worst-ranked defences, potentially giving King a late boost in his push for the Coleman Medal.
A large threat to Curnow's case could be teammate Harry McKay, with the Coleman Medal-winning pair sharing the same forward 50 and likely to spread the attention of attacking entries, however the partnership is yet to see Curnow's numbers struggle to stay competitive.
The big-bodied key forward sits in fourth ahead of Round 21, having kicked 44 goals from 18 appearances.
McKay's career numbers against his upcoming opponents run at a rate of less than two goals per game (49 goals from 25 games), while this year he has only faced Collingwood out of the sides to come, with the 2021 Coleman medallist kicking four goals in the narrow Round 8 loss.
WA-based breakout forwards Jake Waterman and Josh Treacy are currently placed as outside chances among the top six, with Waterman's absence for three matches likely costing him a chance of an upset lead.
The Eagles sharpshooter has booted 44 goals from 16 games - an average of 2.75 to trai only Curnow and Hogan - having missed games against St Kilda (twice) and Collingwood due to three separate injuries.
With matches to come against the Suns, Roos, Blues and Cats, Waterman could quickly rise back up the Coleman Medal leaderboard - having already faced Gold Coast and North Melbourne this year for returns of four goals and three goals respectively.
Treacy is a further two goals behind Waterman on 42 majors from his 19 games and will face just one opponent for the second time this year in his run home to September.
The recently re-signed Dockers big man kicked three goals against Port Adelaide in Round 5 and is yet to face any of Essendon, Geelong or GWS since last year, with one goal coming from those four 2023 matches.
Much like Waterman, there's little weight to taking in Treacy's figures before this year given the meteoric rise he's undergone across the course of 2024.
| Player | Games | Goals | Avg. Goals | Upcoming Opponents | 2024 Goals/Games vs Opponents | Career Goals/Games vs Opponents |
| Charlie Curnow | 19 | 56 | 2.95 | COLL, HAW, WCE, STK | 2/1 | 69/26 |
| Jesse Hogan | 19 | 53 | 2.79 | HAW, BRIS, FREO, WB | 5/3 | 82/33 |
| Ben King | 18 | 46 | 2.56 | WCE, ESS, MELB, RICH | 12/3 | 40/17 |
| Harry McKay | 18 | 44 | 2.44 | COLL, HAW, WCE, STK | 4/1 | 49/25 |
| Jake Waterman | 16 | 44 | 2.75 | GC, NM, CARL, GEEL | 7/2 | 23/21 |
| Josh Treacy | 19 | 42 | 2.21 | ESS, GEEL, GWS, PORT | 3/1 | 4/9 |