As we head into the final month of the 2023 home and away season, it looms as the most crucial for shaping the top eight as we have one of the tightest races for the finals we have ever seen.
As it stands only Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Brisbane and Melbourne have locked their spot in for finals. Only two games separate fifth and 14th on the ladder, with the eight changing so much that it's hard to know who will actually make the September action.
Out of all the sides vying for a spot in the eight, Geelong have arguably the toughest run home, facing four top eight sides as they currently sit outside the finals frame.
Carlton are another one with a tough run home, which includes an interstate trip to play Gold Coast at Heritage Bank Stadium. They'll also play St Kilda, Melbourne and GWS - all pivotal games if they are to return to September action. Unlike last year, it seems they've timed their run to success at just the right point of the season.
Geelong, Carlton, and Richmond all face the risk of missing finals as a result of their respective draws with a log jam between the three teams, currently occupying spots seventh, ninth and 11th respectively on the ladder. All three teams sat on 38 points heading into Round 20, with the Blues the only side to come away with a win.
Breaking down the final month of the home and away season, we highlight the 12 upcoming matches that will shape the finals race.
Round 21 -ย Western Bulldogs vs Richmond
The Dogs and Tigers will meet for the second time in season 2023, with the Dogs emerging victors in their first outing. All-Australian ruck favourite Tim English was best on ground with a 20-disposal and two-goal performance. The Bulldogs won by five points after trailing by a single goal at three-quarter time.
Despite looming as a genuine contender early in the season, the Bulldogs have slipped to eighth. A loss to the Tigers would see them out of the top eight at the end of Round 21. With both sides coming off a loss, this matchup could make or break either side's hopes of a finals appearance.
Round 21 -ย St Kilda vs Carlton
The resurgent Blues are looking to solidify themselves as finals contenders. Carlton has won their last six games, two of which were against second-placed Port Adelaide and more recently the first-placed Collingwood side. With Charlie Curnow leading from the front, the Blues look primed and ready to attack finals and establish themselves as a genuine threat to the competition.
Whilst the Blues are surging, the Saints are just holding on. A win over 16th-placed Hawthorn in Round 20 kept them at fifth, however, their brand of footy has greatly shifted in comparison to earlier in the season. Ross Lyon has reverted to more of a defensive game resulting in slower ball movement. Against the Blues, this could be a disaster.
The Saints did manage to grab a win against the Blues in Round 6, but this is a completely rejuvenated Carlton side.
Round 22 -ย Collingwood vs Geelong
First-placed Collingwood will be looking to tally up their second victory over the Cats for the year, their first coming in the opening round of 2023. The Pies have only lost three games so far this season with Brisbane, Melbourne and Carlton getting the better of the flag favourites.
Geelong have looked a shadow of themselves in comparison to 2022, and with some key players out with injury, their finals chances are on the line.
In what once seemed unimaginable, the Cats have dropped two games at GMHBA Stadium to the Dockers and GWS. The standards that they once set have seemed to dissipate in 2023 and with must-win games coming up, the reigning premiers look to be out of sorts. A win against the Pies would solidify their finals chances, however, another defeat could see Chris Scott's side miss out on September action.
Round 22 -ย Carlton vs Melbourne
This matchup looks to be a dangerous game for both sides. The Blues can't afford another slip-up similar to that of 2022. Dropping a game to Melbourne whilst understandable, could seriously damage their finals hopes. The Dees on the other hand will be looking to solidify a top-four spot.
With both sides flying in the second half of the season, this is shaping up to be a huge clash. Each side has been playing electric footy, both knocking off some of the top teams in the competition in the process. The Dees will be looking at the possible return of superstar midfielder Clayton Oliver who could aid in pushing for a top-four spot.
Round 22 -ย St Kilda vs Richmond
After the Tigers managed a victory over the Saints in Round 14, Ross Lyon's side will look to make amends and stay in the top eight. With a top-eight spot on the line for both sides, it's tough to see how this one will play out. As of Round 20, the Saints currently sit one game in the eight, meaning any loss has huge repercussions. The young St Kilda side will have to create something special if it's any chance of taking down the veteran Tigers.
When it comes to September action, Richmond knows how to win at the pointy end of the season. The Saints will be looking to maintain consistency and remain in the top eight despite a clear drop-off in game style. Coach Ross Lyon will be looking to bring his side to finals glory for the first time since 2020.
Round 22 -ย Port Adelaide vs GWS
If Port Adelaide is defeated by the Cats in Round 21, they will be on a four-game losing streak. A loss to the GWS Giants in Adelaide would put serious doubts over their top four chances and premiership hopes. On the back of Toby Greene, the Giants have completely turned their season around and are a genuine dark horse in the finals race.
After losses to Carlton, Collingwood, Adelaide and possibly Geelong at GMHBA stadium, the Power seem to be sliding in an eerily similar manner to years past. They've guaranteed themselves a spot in the eight but missing out on the top four could see an early exit for Ken Hinkley's side. With the Giants having their finals chances on the line and Port with top-four dreams, this is shaping up to be an absolute classic.
Round 23 -ย GWS vs Essendon
Similar to the Round 22 clash with the Power, GWS will be looking to solidify themselves as a finals contender despite early season struggles. On the other side of the coin, Essendon will be looking for their first finals berth since 2021 with the hopes of winning one. Famously, the Dons have not won a final since 2004, a drought they would love to break.
Essendon has been one of the great underdog stories of 2023. After struggling in 2022 and finishing 15th, Brad Scott has taken the Bombers and completely revitalised the team. With fast ball movement and a solid backline, the Dons look to be ready for finals footy. 2023 might finally be the year that the Bombers win a final, their fans would be more than thankful for that.
Round 23 -ย St Kilda vs Geelong
It'll be the first meeting for these two sides in 2023, with Geelong especially needing a victory to attempt their premiership defence. The Cats could possibly be on a two-game losing streak heading into Round 23 with games against the Power and Pies in Rounds 21 and 22. The Saints could very well be in the same boat with Carlton and Richmond prior to the clash with the Cats.
With Tom Hawkins suffering a minor hamstring strain in Round 20, his availability is up for debate. Premiership teammate Mark Blicavs is set for a stint on the sidelines after suffering a high-grade hamstring strain. If the Cats are missing those two key players towards the end of their season, a win against the Saints is a must.
Round 24 - Carlton vs GWS
It's almost too similar to 2022. The Blues taking on the Giants in a game that could see them either in or out of the eight. It all looked right for the Blues until a late-season slip-up that saw them miss the eight last year. Hopefully, for Carlton fans, this game won't mean a lot for them. Having the same scenario as last year would be devastating for both the club and their fans, finals are a must this year.
The Giants could also very well be in the same boat. A win secures finals, a loss ensures an early September holiday.
Round 24 -ย Essendon vs Collingwood
Could the Pies do it again? Knock a team out of the eight in the expected last game of the round? A Sunday 3:20 PM (AEST) clash at the MCG looks likely and it could be 2022 all over again. Two rivals playing on the biggest stage of them all. The Pies looking for pride and the Dons looking for finals. It doesn't get any bigger if all lines up.
Alternatively, the Bombers could go undefeated headed into this game, winning three on the trot. The three games before the Pies are West Coast, North Melbourne and GWS - three very winnable games. Brad Scott will be doing everything he can to ensure a Round 24 win isn't needed, however, the drama and spectacle would be immense.
Round 24 -ย Geelong vs Western Bulldogs
In simply a must-win clash for both sides, the Cats and Dogs will be drawing in the ratings in this huge game. Both teams have severely underperformed in 2023, either due to injuries or simply not being good enough. The Cats have struggled with injury all year whilst the Dogs seem to be struggling to live up to expectations while battling injury woes of their own. The Bulldogs were once seen as a top-four favourite (albeit so were the Cats) and now are fighting for a finals spot.
If the Cats are to make finals, they're going to need to be just about perfect. Games against Port Adelaide in Round 21, the Pies in Round 22, St Kilda in Round 23 and finally the Dogs in Round 24 spells trouble. The Bulldogs have an easier run home with Richmond in Round 21, Hawthorn in Round 22, the Eagles in Round 23 and finally the Round 24 clash against the Cats. Both teams could be one win out of the top eight by the time Round 24 rolls around. This could be huge.ย
Round 24 - Port Adelaide vs Richmond
In a similar vein to Carlton vs Collingwood in Round 23 last season, this game could decide a top-four spot for Port and a top-eight spot for the Tigers. It'll be an interesting matchup as earlier in the season Port got the better of Richmond at the MCG by 10 points. This is a different Power team than the one that beat the Tigers during their 13-match unbeaten run.
The Tigers' big guns Dustin Martin and Tim Taranto know how to win. The veterans on the side such as Dylan Grimes, Nick Vlastuin and Toby Nankervis are no strangers to the big stage either. The once dynasty of Richmond still has talent left in the tank whilst Port Adelaide are inexperienced for the most part. Could the Power slip up even more? That's up for discussion. Everyone in the competition knows what this Richmond side is, who knows what they could do in finals if they make it.
